Using molecular data for epidemiological inference: assessing the prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in Tsetse in Serengeti, Tanzania

Background: Measuring the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in tsetse populations is essential for understanding transmission dynamics, assessing human disease risk and monitoring spatio-temporal trends and the impact of control interventions. Although an important epidemiological variable, identifying flies which carry transmissible infections is difficult, with challenges including low prevalence, presence of other trypanosome species in the same fly, and concurrent detection of immature non-transmissible infections. Diagnostic tests to measure the prevalence of T. b. rhodesiense in tsetse are applied and interpreted inconsistently, and discrepancies between studies suggest this value is not consistently estimated even to within an order of magnitude. Methodology/Principal Findings: Three approaches were used to estimate the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei s.l. and T. b. rhodesiense in Glossina swynnertoni and G. pallidipes in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania: (i) dissection/microscopy; (ii) PCR on infected tsetse midguts; and (iii) inference from a mathematical model. Using dissection/microscopy the prevalence of transmissible T. brucei s.l. was 0% (95% CI 0–0.085) for G. swynnertoni and 0% (0–0.18) G. pallidipes; using PCR the prevalence of transmissible T. b. rhodesiense was 0.010% (0–0.054) and 0.0089% (0–0.059) respectively, and by model inference 0.0064% and 0.00085% respectively. Conclusions/Significance: The zero prevalence result by dissection/microscopy (likely really greater than zero given the results of other approaches) is not unusual by this technique, often ascribed to poor sensitivity. The application of additional techniques confirmed the very low prevalence of T. brucei suggesting the zero prevalence result was attributable to insufficient sample size (despite examination of 6000 tsetse). Given the prohibitively high sample sizes required to obtain meaningful results by dissection/microscopy, PCR-based approaches offer the current best option for assessing trypanosome prevalence in tsetse but inconsistencies in relating PCR results to transmissibility highlight the need for a consensus approach to generate meaningful and comparable data

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the MINOS long-baseline experiment

A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18×1020 protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between ~500¿¿MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as ¿µ, the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the ¿µ flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C.L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles ¿24 and ¿34 are constrained to be less than 11° and 56° at 90% C.L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime t3/m3>2.1×10-12¿¿s/eV at 90% C.L

Improved search for invisible modes of nucleon decay in water with the SNO + detector

This paper reports results from a search for single and multinucleon disappearance from the O16 nucleus in water within the SNO+ detector using all of the available data. These so-called "invisible"decays do not directly deposit energy within the detector but are instead detected through their subsequent nuclear deexcitation and gamma-ray emission. New limits are given for the partial lifetimes: τ(n→inv)>9.0×1029 years, τ(p→inv)>9.6×1029 years, τ(nn→inv)>1.5×1028 years, τ(np→inv)>6.0×1028 years, and τ(pp→inv)>1.1×1029 years at 90% Bayesian credibility level (with a prior uniform in rate). All but the (nn→inv) results improve on existing limits by a factor of about 3

Sleeping sickness and its relationship with development and biodiversity conservation in the Luangwa valley, Zambia

The Luangwa Valley has a long historical association with Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) and is a recognised geographical focus of this disease. It is also internationally acclaimed for its high biodiversity and contains many valuable habitats. Local inhabitants of the valley have developed sustainable land use systems in co-existence with wildlife over centuries, based on non-livestock keeping practices largely due to the threat from African Animal Trypanosomiasis. Historical epidemics of human sleeping sickness have influenced how and where communities have settled and have had a profound impact on development in the Valley. Historical attempts to control trypanosomiasis have also had a negative impact on conservation of biodiversity. Centralised control over wildlife utilisation has marginalised local communities from managing the wildlife resource. To some extent this has been reversed by the implementation of community based natural resource management programmes in the latter half of the 20th century and the Luangwa Valley provides some of the earliest examples of such programmes. More recently, there has been significant uncontrolled migration of people into the mid-Luangwa Valley driven by pressure on resources in the eastern plateau region, encouragement from local chiefs and economic development in the tourist centre of Mfuwe. This has brought changing land-use patterns, most notably agricultural development through livestock keeping and cotton production. These changes threaten to alter the endemically stable patterns of HAT transmission and could have significant impacts on ecosystem health and ecosystem services. In this paper we review the history of HAT in the context of conservation and development and consider the impacts current changes may have on this complex social-ecological system. We conclude that improved understanding is required to identify specific circumstances where win-win trade-offs can be achieved between the conservation of biodiversity and the reduction of disease in the human population.Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA

Evidence of antineutrinos from distant reactors using pure water at SNO

The SNO+ Collaboration reports the first evidence of reactor antineutrinos in a Cherenkov detector. The nearest nuclear reactors are located 240 km away in Ontario, Canada. This analysis uses events with energies lower than in any previous analysis with a large water Cherenkov detector. Two analytical methods are used to distinguish reactor antineutrinos from background events in 190 days of data and yield consistent evidence for antineutrinos with a combined significance of 3.5σ

A Multi-Host Agent-Based Model for a Zoonotic, Vector-Borne Disease. A Case Study on Trypanosomiasis in Eastern Province, Zambia

Background: This paper presents a new agent-based model (ABM) for investigating T. b. rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease dynamics, produced to aid a greater understanding of disease transmission, and essential for development of appropriate mitigation strategies. Methods: The ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The method offers a complementary approach to traditional compartmentalised modelling techniques, permitting incorporation of fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender into the simulation. Results: Through identification of possible spatial, demographic and behavioural characteristics which may have differing implications for rHAT risk in the region, the ABM produced output that could not be readily generated by other techniques. On average there were 1.99 (S.E. 0.245) human infections and 1.83 (S.E. 0.183) cattle infections per 6 month period. The model output identified that the approximate incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) was lower amongst cattle owning households (0.079, S.E. 0.017), than those without cattle (0.134, S.E. 0.017). Immigrant tribes (e.g. Bemba I.R. = 0.353, S.E.0.155) and school-age children (e.g. 5–10 year old I.R. = 0.239, S.E. 0.041) were the most at-risk for acquiring infection. These findings have the potential to aid the targeting of future mitigation strategies. Conclusion: ABMs provide an alternative way of thinking about HAT and NTDs more generally, offering a solution to the investigation of local-scale questions, and which generate results that can be easily disseminated to those affected. The ABM can be used as a tool for scenario testing at an appropriate spatial scale to allow the design of logistically feasible mitigation strategies suggested by model output. This is of particular importance where resources are limited and management strategies are often pushed to the local scale. © 2016 Alderton et al

Quantifying Heterogeneity in Host-Vector Contact: Tsetse (Glossina swynnertoni and G. pallidipes) Host Choice in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania

Identifying hosts of blood-feeding insect vectors is crucial in understanding their role in disease transmission. Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis (r-HAT or ‘sleeping sickness’) caused by Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and transmitted by tsetse flies, is commonly associated with wilderness areas of east and southern Africa. Such areas hold a diverse range of species which form communities of hosts for disease maintenance. The relative importance of different wildlife hosts remains unclear. This study quantified tsetse feeding preferences in a wilderness area of great host species richness, Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, assessing tsetse feeding and host density contemporaneously. Glossina swynnertoni and G.pallidipes were collected from six study sites. Bloodmeal sources were identified through matching Cytochrome B sequences amplified from bloodmeals from fed flies to published sequences. Densities of large mammal species in each site were quantified, and feeding indices calculated to assess the relative selection or avoidance of each host species by tsetse. The host species most commonly identified in G. swynnertoni bloodmeals, warthog (94/220), buffalo (48/220) and giraffe (46/220), were found at relatively low densities (3-11/km2) and fed on up to 15 times more frequently than expected by their relative density. Wildebeest, zebra, impala and Thomson’s gazelle, found at the highest densities, were never identified in bloodmeals. Commonly identified hosts for G. pallidipes were buffalo (26/46), giraffe (9/46) and elephant (5/46). This study is the first to quantify tsetse host range by molecular analysis of tsetse diet with simultaneous assessment of host density in a wilderness area. Although G.swynnertoni and G.pallidipes can feed on a range of species, they are highly selective. Many host species are rarely fed on, despite being present in areas where tsetse are abundant. These feeding patterns, along with the ability of key host species to maintain and transmit T.b.rhodesiense, drive the epidemiology of r-HAT in wilderness areas

Assessing the effect of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse abundance and trypanosome transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Serengeti, Tanzania

In the absence of national control programmes against Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis, farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroid-based insecticides may be an effective strategy for foci at the edges of wildlife areas, but there is limited evidence to support this. We combined data on insecticide use by farmers, tsetse abundance and trypanosome prevalence, with mathematical models, to quantify the likely impact of insecticide-treated cattle. Sixteen percent of farmers reported treating cattle with a pyrethroid, and chemical analysis indicated 18% of individual cattle had been treated, in the previous week. Treatment of cattle was estimated to increase daily mortality of tsetse by 5–14%. Trypanosome prevalence in tsetse, predominantly from wildlife areas, was 1.25% for T. brucei s.l. and 0.03% for T. b. rhodesiense. For 750 cattle sampled from 48 herds, 2.3% were PCR positive for T. brucei s.l. and none for T. b. rhodesiense. Using mathematical models, we estimated there was 8–29% increase in mortality of tsetse in farming areas and this increase can explain the relatively low prevalence of T. brucei s.l. in cattle. Farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroids is likely, in part, to be limiting the spill-over of human-infective trypanosomes from wildlife areas

Search for invisible modes of nucleon decay in water with the SNO+ detector

This paper reports results from a search for nucleon decay through invisible modes, where no visible energy is directly deposited during the decay itself, during the initial water phase of SNO+. However, such decays within the oxygen nucleus would produce an excited daughter that would subsequently deexcite, often emitting detectable gamma rays. A search for such gamma rays yields limits of 2.5×1029  y at 90% Bayesian credibility level (with a prior uniform in rate) for the partial lifetime of the neutron, and 3.6×1029  y for the partial lifetime of the proton, the latter a 70% improvement on the previous limit from SNO. We also present partial lifetime limits for invisible dinucleon modes of 1.3×1028  y for nn, 2.6×1028  y for pn and 4.7×1028  y for pp, an improvement over existing limits by close to 3 orders of magnitude for the latter two