Medical Workforce Issues in Australia: Tomorrow's Doctors - Too Few, Too Far

The Australian medical workforce, like those of most developed countries, is increasingly feminised and exposed to the global market for doctors. Demand for healthcare services is increasing in the Australian community. Concern in relation to doctor shortages is increasing, particularly in rural areas. There should be greater flexibility for entry of highly-trained overseas doctors. There is an urgent need to increase medical school student intake. Issues of workforce practice, including task substitution, should be explored

Ageing medical workforce in Australia - where will the medical educators come from?

Background: As the general practitioner and specialist medical workforce ages there is likely to be a large number of retirees in the near future. However, few Australian studies have specifically examined medical practitioner retirement and projected retirement patterns, and the subsequent impact this may have on training future health care professionals.\ud \ud Methods: Extracts from the Australian Medicare database and Medical Labour Force Surveys are used to examine trends in attrition of general medical practitioners and specialists over the age of 45 years from the workforce and to predict their rate of retirement to 2025.\ud \ud Results: The general medical practitioner workforce has aged significantly (p<0.05). Between the years 2000 and 2025, it was projected that 43% of the year 2000 general practitioner workforce and 56% of the specialist workforce would have retired.\ud \ud Conclusion: The ageing of the baby boomer and older cohorts of the general practitioner and specialist workforce will lead to a significant number of retirements over the next 20 years. Increasing the numbers of students and new medical schools has been heralded as a means of alleviating service shortages from about 2015 onwards; however, the retirement of a large proportion of experienced health care professionals may lead to shortages of educators for these students

The impact of generational change and retirement on psychiatry to 2025

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Australia is currently experiencing widespread shortages of psychiatrists. The changing nature of the workforce and increasing demand mean that these shortages are unlikely to ease. This study aims to identify demographic change and retirement patterns of the Australian psychiatry workforce from 1995 to 2003, and the implications of those changes for future workforce planning.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Medical Labour Force Survey from 1995 to 2003 is used to examine ageing of the psychiatry workforce and attrition of psychiatrists aged 50 years and over. Future attrition from the workforce is projected to 2025.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty two percent of psychiatrists practicing in the year 2000 are predicted to have retired by 2025. Most psychiatrists continue to work until late in life, with only 18 per cent retiring before age 65. The psychiatry workforce aged significantly between 1995 and 2003 (p < 0.001), with men older than women in both years. A reduction in hours worked by psychiatrists reflects both the increasing proportion of females and the older members of the profession reducing their hours in preparation for retirement.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The impact of ageing of the workforce may be more immediate for psychiatry than for some other health professions. With the growing proportion of females and their typically lower workforce participation, more than one younger psychiatrist will be required to replace each of the mostly male retirees.</p

Access to general practitioner services amongst underserved Australians: a microsimulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>One group often identified as having low socioeconomic status, those living in remote or rural areas, are often recognised as bearing an unequal burden of illness in society. This paper aims to examine equity of utilisation of general practitioner services in Australia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using the 2005 National Health Survey undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, a microsimulation model was developed to determine the distribution of GP services that would occur if all Australians had equal utilisation of health services relative to need.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It was estimated that those who are unemployed would experience a 19% increase in GP services. Persons residing in regional areas would receive about 5.7 million additional GP visits per year if they had the same access to care as Australians residing in major cities. This would be a 18% increase. There would be a 20% increase for inner regional residents and a 14% increase for residents of more remote regional areas. Overall there would be a 5% increase in GP visits nationally if those in regional areas had the same access to care as those in major cities.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Parity is an insufficient goal and disadvantaged persons and underserved areas require greater access to health services than the well served metropolitan areas due to their greater poverty and poorer health status. Currently underserved Australians suffer a double disadvantage: poorer health and poorer access to health services.</p

Report of the WPA Task Force on Brain Drain

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/97173/1/j.2051-5545.2009.tb00225.x.pd

The future prospects of Lithuanian family physicians: a 10-year forecasting study

BACKGROUND: When health care reform was started in 1991, the physician workforce in Lithuania was dominated by specialists, and the specialty of family physician (FP) did not exist at all. During fifteen years of Lithuania's independence this specialty evolved rapidly and over 1,900 FPs were trained or retrained. Since 2003, the Lithuanian health care sector has undergone restructuring to optimize the network of health care institutions as well as the delivery of services; specific attention has been paid to the development of services provided by FPs, with more health care services shifted from the hospital level to the primary health care level. In this paper we analyze if an adequate workforce of FPs will be available in the future to take over new emerging tasks. METHODS: A computer spreadsheet simulation model was used to project the supply of FPs in 2006–2015. The supply was projected according to three scenarios, which took into account different rates of retirement, migration and drop out from training. In addition different population projections and enrolment numbers in residency programs were also considered. Three requirement scenarios were made using different approaches. In the first scenario we used the requirement estimated by a panel of experts using the Delphi technique. The second scenario was based on the number of visits to FPs in 2003 and took into account the goal to increase the number of visits. The third scenario was based on the determination that one FP should serve no more than 2,000 inhabitants. The three scenarios for the projection of supply were compared with the three requirement scenarios. RESULTS: The supply of family physicians will be higher in 2015 compared to 2005 according to all projection scenarios. The largest differences in the supply scenarios were caused by different migration rates, enrolment numbers to training programs and the retirement age. The second supply scenario, which took into account 1.1% annual migration rate, stable enrolment to residency programs and later retirement, appears to be the most probable. The first requirement scenario, which was based on the opinion of well-informed key experts in the field, appears to be the best reflection of FP requirements; however none of the supply scenarios considered would satisfy these requirements. CONCLUSION: Despite the rapid expansion of the FP workforce during the last fifteen years, ten-year forecasts of supply and requirement indicate that the number of FPs in 2015 will not be sufficient. The annual enrolment in residency training programs should be increased by at least 20% for the next three years. Accurate year-by-year monitoring of the workforce is crucial in order to prevent future shortages and to maintain the desired family physician workforce

Community characteristics that attract physicians in Japan: a cross-sectional analysis of community demographic and economic factors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In many countries, there is a surplus of physicians in some communities and a shortage in others. Population size is known to be correlated with the number of physicians in a community, and is conventionally considered to represent the power of communities to attract physicians. However, associations between other demographic/economic variables and the number of physicians in a community have not been fully evaluated. This study seeks other parameters that correlate with the physician population and show which characteristics of a community determine its "attractiveness" to physicians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Associations between the number of physicians and selected demographic/economic/life-related variables of all of Japan's 3132 municipalities were examined. In order to exclude the confounding effect of community size, correlations between the physician-to-population ratio and other variable-to-population ratios or variable-to-area ratios were evaluated with simple correlation and multiple regression analyses. The equity of physician distribution against each variable was evaluated by the orenz curve and Gini index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 21 variables selected, the service industry workers-to-population ratio (0.543), commercial land price (0.527), sales of goods per person (0.472), and daytime population density (0.451) were better correlated with the physician-to-population ratio than was population density (0.409). Multiple regression analysis showed that the service industry worker-to-population ratio, the daytime population density, and the elderly rate were each independently correlated with the physician-to-population ratio (standardized regression coefficient 0.393, 0.355, 0.089 respectively; each p < 0.001). Equity of physician distribution was higher against service industry population (Gini index = 0.26) and daytime population (0.28) than against population (0.33).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Daytime population and service industry population in a municipality are better parameters of community attractiveness to physicians than population. Because attractiveness is supposed to consist of medical demand and the amenities of urban life, the two parameters may represent the amount of medical demand and/or the extent of urban amenities of the community more precisely than population does. The conventional demand-supply analysis based solely on population as the demand parameter may overestimate the inequity of the physician distribution among communities.</p

Do longer consultations improve the management of psychological problems in general practice? A systematic literature review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Psychological problems present a huge burden of illness in our community and GPs are the main providers of care. There is evidence that longer consultations in general practice are associated with improved quality of care; but this needs to be balanced against the fact that doctor time is a limited resource and longer consultations may lead to reduced access to health care.</p> <p>The aim of this research was to conduct a systematic literature review to determine whether management of psychological problems in general practice is associated with an increased consultation length and to explore whether longer consultations are associated with better health outcomes for patients with psychological problems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A search was conducted on Medline (Ovid) databases up to7 June 2006. The following search terms, were used:</p> <p>general practice or primary health care (free text) or family practice (MeSH)</p> <p>AND consultation length or duration (free text) or time factors (MeSH)</p> <p>AND depression or psychological problems or depressed (free text).</p> <p>A similar search was done in Web of Science, Pubmed, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Library and no other papers were found.</p> <p>Studies were included if they contained data comparing consultation length and management or detection of psychological problems in a general practice or primary health care setting. The studies were read and categories developed to enable systematic data extraction and synthesis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>29 papers met the inclusion criteria. Consultations with a recorded diagnosis of a psychological problem were reported to be longer than those with no recorded psychological diagnosis. It is not clear if this is related to the extra time or the consultation style. GPs reported that time pressure is a major barrier to treating depression. There was some evidence that increased consultation length is associated with more accurate diagnosis of psychological problems.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Further research is needed to elucidate the factors in longer consultations that are associated with greater detection of psychological problems, and to determine the association between the detection of psychological problems and the attitude, gender, age or training of the GP and the age, gender and socioeconomic status of the patient. These are important considerations if general practice is to deal more effectively with people with psychological problems.</p