Structural Change in (Economic) Time Series

Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. Several recent methods for dating structural changes are compared using a time series of oil prices spanning more than 60 years. The methods broadly agree for the first part of the series up to the mid-1980s, for which changes are associated with major historical events, but provide somewhat different solutions thereafter, reflecting a gradual increase in oil prices that is not well described by a step function. As a further illustration, 1990s data on the volatility of the Hang Seng stock market index are reanalyzed.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Structural analysis of three novel trisaccharides isolated from the fermented beverage of plant extracts

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A fermented beverage of plant extracts was prepared from about fifty kinds of vegetables and fruits. Natural fermentation was carried out mainly by lactic acid bacteria (<it>Leuconostoc </it>spp.) and yeast (<it>Zygosaccharomyces </it>spp. and <it>Pichia </it>spp.). We have previously examined the preparation of novel four trisaccharides from the beverage: <it>O</it>-β-D-fructopyranosyl-(2->6)-<it>O</it>-β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1->3)-D-glucopyranose, <it>O</it>-β-D-fructopyranosyl-(2->6)-<it>O</it>-[β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1->3)]-D-glucopyranose, <it>O</it>-β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1->1)-<it>O</it>-β-D-fructofuranosyl-(2<->1)-α-D-glucopyranoside and <it>O</it>-β-D-galactopyranosyl-(1->1)-<it>O</it>-β-D-fructofuranosyl-(2<->1)- α-D-glucopyranoside.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three further novel oligosaccharides have been found from this beverage and isolated from the beverage using carbon-Celite column chromatography and preparative high performance liquid chromatography. Structural confirmation of the saccharides was provided by methylation analysis, MALDI-TOF-MS and NMR measurements.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The following novel trisaccharides were identified: <it>O</it>-β-D-fructofuranosyl-(2->1)-<it>O</it>-[β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1->3)]-β-D-glucopyranoside (named "3^G-β-D-glucopyranosyl β, β-isosucrose"), <it>O</it>-β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1->2)-<it>O</it>-[β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1->4)]-D-glucopyranose (4¹-β-D-glucopyranosyl sophorose) and <it>O</it>-β-D-fructofuranosyl-(2->6)-<it>O</it>-β-D-glucopyranosyl-(1->3)-D-glucopyranose (6²-β-D-fructofuranosyl laminaribiose).</p

Fractional Integration Versus Structural Change: Testing the Convergence of CO2 Emissions

This paper assesses the stochastic convergence of relative CO₂ emissions within 28 OECD countries over the period 1950–2013. Using the local Whittle estimator and some of its variants we assess whether relative per capita CO₂ emissions are long memory processes which, although highly persistent, may revert to their mean/trend in the long run thereby indicating evidence of stochastic convergence. Furthermore, we test whether (possibly) slow convergence or the complete lack of it may be the result of structural changes to the deterministics of each of the relative per-capita emissions series by means of the tests of Berkes et al. (Ann Stat 1140–1165, 2006) and Mayoral (Oxford Bull Econ Stat 74(2):278–305, 2012). Our results show relatively weak support for stochastic convergence of CO₂ emissions, indicating that only between 30 and 40% of the countries converge to the OECD average in a stochastic sense. This weak evidence disappears if we enlarge the sample to include 4 out of the 5 BRICS, indicating that our results are not robust to the inclusion of countries which are experiencing rates of growth which are far larger than those of the OECD members. Our results also decisively indicate that a slow or lack of convergence is not the results of a structural break in the relative CO₂ emissions series

Purification and Structural Characterization of Siderophore (Corynebactin) from Corynebacterium diphtheriae

During infection, Corynebacterium diphtheriae must compete with host iron-sequestering mechanisms for iron. C. diphtheriae can acquire iron by a siderophore-dependent iron-uptake pathway, by uptake and degradation of heme, or both. Previous studies showed that production of siderophore (corynebactin) by C. diphtheriae is repressed under high-iron growth conditions by the iron-activated diphtheria toxin repressor (DtxR) and that partially purified corynebactin fails to react in chemical assays for catecholate or hydroxamate compounds. In this study, we purified corynebactin from supernatants of low-iron cultures of the siderophore-overproducing, DtxR-negative mutant strain C. diphtheriae C7(β) ΔdtxR by sequential anion-exchange chromatography on AG1-X2 and Source 15Q resins, followed by reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) on Zorbax C8 resin. The Chrome Azurol S (CAS) chemical assay for siderophores was used to detect and measure corynebactin during purification, and the biological activity of purified corynebactin was shown by its ability to promote growth and iron uptake in siderophore-deficient mutant strains of C. diphtheriae under iron-limiting conditions. Mass spectrometry and NMR analysis demonstrated that corynebactin has a novel structure, consisting of a central lysine residue linked through its α- and ε- amino groups by amide bonds to the terminal carboxyl groups of two different citrate residues. Corynebactin from C. diphtheriae is structurally related to staphyloferrin A from Staphylococcus aureus and rhizoferrin from Rhizopus microsporus in which d-ornithine or 1,4-diaminobutane, respectively, replaces the central lysine residue that is present in corynebactin

Mechanism of the Interaction between the Intrinsically Disordered C-Terminus of the Pro-Apoptotic ARTS Protein and the Bir3 Domain of XIAP

ARTS (Sept4_i2) is a mitochondrial pro-apoptotic protein that functions as a tumor suppressor. Its expression is significantly reduced in leukemia and lymphoma patients. ARTS binds and inhibits XIAP (X-linked Inhibitor of Apoptosis protein) by interacting with its Bir3 domain. ARTS promotes degradation of XIAP through the proteasome pathway. By doing so, ARTS removes XIAP inhibition of caspases and enables apoptosis to proceed. ARTS contains 27 unique residues in its C-terminal domain (CTD, residues 248–274) which are important for XIAP binding. Here we characterized the molecular details of this interaction. Biophysical and computational methods were used to show that the ARTS CTD is intrinsically disordered under physiological conditions. Direct binding of ARTS CTD to Bir3 was demonstrated using NMR and fluorescence spectroscopy. The Bir3 interacting region in ARTS CTD was mapped to ARTS residues 266–274, which are the nine C-terminal residues in the protein. Alanine scan of ARTS 266–274 showed the importance of several residues for Bir3 binding, with His268 and Cys273 contributing the most. Adding a reducing agent prevented binding to Bir3. A dimer of ARTS 266–274 formed by oxidation of the Cys residues into a disulfide bond bound with similar affinity and was probably required for the interaction with Bir3. The detailed analysis of the ARTS – Bir3 interaction provides the basis for setting it as a target for anti cancer drug design: It will enable the development of compounds that mimic ARTS CTD, remove IAPs inhibition of caspases, and thereby induce apoptosis

The Human Affectome

Over the last decades, the interdisciplinary field of the affective sciences has seen proliferation rather than integration of theoretical perspectives. This is due to differences in metaphysical and mechanistic assumptions about human affective phenomena (what they are and how they work) which, shaped by academic motivations and values, have determined the affective constructs and operationalizations. An assumption on the purpose of affective phenomena can be used as a teleological principle to guide the construction of a common set of metaphysical and mechanistic assumptions—a framework for human affective research. In this capstone paper for the special issue “Towards an Integrated Understanding of the Human Affectome”, we gather the tiered purpose of human affective phenomena to synthesize assumptions that account for human affective phenomena collectively. This teleologically-grounded framework offers a principled agenda and launchpad for both organizing existing perspectives and generating new ones. Ultimately, we hope Human Affectome brings us a step closer to not only an integrated understanding of human affective phenomena, but an integrated field for affective research

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)