Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates

Seasonality can be defined as a pattern of a time series, which repeats at regular intervals every year. Seasonal fluctuations in data make it difficult to analyse whether changes in data for a given period reflect important increases or decreases in the level of the data, or are due to regularly occurring variation. In search for the economic measures that are independent of seasonal variations, methods had been developed to remove the effect of seasonal changes from the original data to produce seasonally adjusted data. The seasonally adjusted data, providing more readily interpretable measures of changes occurring in a given period, reflects real economic movements without the misleading seasonal changes. The choice of method for seasonal adjustment is crucial for the removal of all seasonal effects in the data. Seasonal adjustment is normally done using the off-the-shelf programs-most commonly worldwide by one of the programs in the X-11 family, X-12 ARIMA, the latest improved version. Another program in common use is the TRAMO/SEATS package developed by the Bank of Spain and promoted by Eurostat. In this study, the performances of two seasonal adjustment methods, X-12 ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS, on the monetary aggregates will be studied. In section five, the two methods are applied to the M2 monetary aggregate series, and the resulting seasonally adjusted series are compared using specific criteria. In sections six and seven, some of the issues that should be concerned in the process of seasonal adjustment, are discussed.Seasonal Adjustment, TRAMO/SEATS, X-12 ARIMA

'Monkeypox, where is your rage?': The racialization, sexualization, and securitization of global health

With the purposes of identifying the underlying challenges of global and public health governance of outbreaks, this paper explores three key themes that emerged in response to the 2022 mpox epidemic: the belated change of disease nomenclature from monkeypox to mpox; the classification of mpox as a sexually transmitted infection (STI); and the unpreparedness of health agencies to vaccinate impacted populations. The paper makes the case that, because of the global and public health tensions arising from racialized nomenclatures, sexualized classifications, biosecuritized borders, and monopolized vaccines, national and international agencies failed in providing an adequate and comprehensive response to the latest mpox pandemic, which contributed further to the pathologization of already vulnerable and stigmatized population groups

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF DEVALUATION OF NAIRA ON THE LIVELIHOOD OF HOUSEHOLDS IN KADUNA NORTH LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, NIGERIA

This study examined the effect of naira devaluation on the livelihood of households in Nigeria adopting a descriptive survey research design. The study was carried out in Kaduna North LGA of Kaduna State using a sample of 400 households selected through multistage sampling technique. The primary quantitative data were collected using a questionnaire, while data analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. Findings from the results of the data analysis revealed that naira devaluation had significant negative effect on household expenditures in Kaduna North LGA of Kaduna State (β1 = -0.145, P < 0.01); and inflation rate had significant negative impact on household expenditures (β2 = 0.584, P < 0.01). The study also revealed that the main coping strategy employed by households in Kaduna North LGA to mitigate the economic challenges emanating from naira devaluation was adjusting the overall budget and spending habits of the household. Based on the findings, the study concludes that naira devaluation have significant negative effect on the livelihood of households in Kaduna North Local Government Area. The study recommends among others that government and policymakers should implement targeted interventions such as target cash transfers, subsidies for essential goods and services to cushion the impacts of naira devaluation on households’ welfare

Memory and the Operational Witness: Police officer recall of firearms encounters as a function of active response role

Investigations following critical events often depend on accurate and detailed recall accounts from operational witnesses (e.g., law enforcement officers, military personnel, emergency responders). However, the challenging, and often stressful, nature of such events, together with the cognitive demands imposed on operational witnesses as a function of their active role, may impair subsequent recall. We compared the recall performance of operational active witnesses with that of non-operational observer witnesses for a challenging simulated scenario involving an armed perpetrator. Seventy-six police officers participated in pairs. In each pair, one officer (active witness) was armed and instructed to respond to the scenario as they would in an operational setting, while the other (observer witness) was instructed to simply observe the scenario. All officers then completed free reports and responded to closed questions. Active witnesses showed a pattern of heart rate activity consistent with an increased stress response during the event, and subsequently reported significantly fewer correct details about the critical phase of the scenario. The level of stress experienced during the scenario mediated the effect of officer role on memory performance. Across the sample, almost one-fifth of officers reported that the perpetrator had pointed a weapon at them although the weapon had remained in the waistband of the perpetrator’s trousers throughout the critical phase of the encounter. These findings highlight the need for investigator awareness of both the impact of operational involvement and stress-related effects on memory for ostensibly salient details, and reflect the importance of careful and ethical information elicitation techniques

The Volatile Possibilities and Empty Gestures of Care Under Military Occupation

The Occupied Clinic could hardly be any timelier. Kashmir has been under siege by the Indian national government for thirty years, and its residents disenfranchised. In 2019, in part to suppress the region’s independence movement, Narendra Modi and his BJP made international headlines when they stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy. In a land that lives under continuous military occupation and has witnessed countless curfews, Saiba Varma asks, ‘what kind of care leaves people in pieces?’. The Occupied Clinic is the result of arduous fieldwork conducted under occupation in the Kashmir Valley, during the period 2009-2016. In this eloquent ethnography of clinic and its militarization under siege, Varma raises critically, ‘what is possible—clinically, ethically, socially, and politically—under occupation? What forms of care?’

PENERAPAN ASAS KETERBUKAAN DALAM PROSES PEMBENTUKAN PERATURAN GUBERNUR (Studi Kasus: Provinsi Papua Selatan)

Papua Selatan, sebagai daerah otonom baru, menghadapi tantangan besar dalam hal membangun peraturan yang tidak hanya tepat guna tetapi juga mendapatkan legitimasi dari masyarakat. Melalui asas keterbukaan, diharapkan proses pembentukan peraturan daerah tidak hanya bersifat top-down, melainkan juga menampung aspirasi, kebutuhan, serta masukan dari masyarakat. Tujuan Penelitian ini adalah untuk mengkaji dan menganalisis penerapan asas keterbukaan dalam proses pembentukan peraturan gubernur di Provinsi Papua Selata; serta mengkaji dan menganalisis hambatan dan solusi penerapan asas keterbukaan dalam proses pembentukan peraturan gubernur di Provinsi Papua Selatan. Metode pendekatan yang dipergunakan penyusunan tesis ialah penelitian yuridis empiris. Spesifikasi dalam penelitian ini adalah bersifat deskriptif analitis. Jenis dan sumber data menggunakan data primer dan data sekunder. Analisa data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisa Kualitatif. Teori yang digunakan teori legalitas dan teori sistem hukum. Hasil penelitian ini adalah (1) Penerapan asas keterbukaan dalam proses pembentukan Peraturan Gubernur di Provinsi Papua Selatan tentang Masterplan Kawasan Pusat Pemerintahan Provinsi Papua Selatan merupakan langkah yang mencerminkan komitmen pemerintah daerah untuk meningkatkan transparansi dan partisipasi publik. Asas keterbukaan memberikan masyarakat ruang untuk berkontribusi, baik melalui konsultasi publik maupun penyampaian masukan terhadap rancangan regulasi yang sedang dibahas. Dengan melibatkan masyarakat, proses pembentukan peraturan menjadi lebih terbuka, menjamin bahwa regulasi yang dihasilkan sesuai dengan kebutuhan dan aspirasi masyarakat setempat. (2) Hambatan dan solusi penerapan asas keterbukaan dalam proses pembentukan Peraturan Gubernur di Provinsi Papua Selatan dapat dianalisis melalui kerangka Teori Sistem Hukum Lawrence M. Friedman, yang mencakup struktur, substansi, dan budaya hukum. Hambatan pada struktur hukum terletak pada lemahnya sinergi antar instansi; sedangkan pada substansi hukum adalah ketiadaan pedoman teknis terkait keterbukaan dan partisipasi publik; hambatan budaya hukum, pada rendahnya kesadaran masyarakat dan minimnya inisiatif pemerintah untuk melibatkan publik secara aktif. Untuk mengatasi hambatan ini, diperlukan penguatan sinergi antarinstansi melalui mekanisme koordinasi yang jelas, penerbitan pedoman teknis yang mengatur keterbukaan, serta peningkatan kesadaran hukum masyarakat melalui pendidikan dan sosialisasi. Kata Kunci: Penerapan; Asas Keterbukaan; Peraturan Gubernur