Secondary centres of economic activity in the East Midlands: final report

This report outlines the findings of a study of secondary centres of economic activity in the East Midlands. The study builds on previous work undertaken in the ‘GDP Growth in the East Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside regions’ project by the Enterprise Research and Development Unit on behalf of emda and Yorkshire Forward

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”

Rurality, productivity and skills in the East Midlands: final report

This report sets out the findings of research into the relationship between rurality, skills and productivity in the East Midlands. The report has been prepared by the Enterprise Research and Development Unit (ERDU) at the University of Lincoln on behalf of the East Midlands Development Agency (emda)

L.E. Atherton to Professor James Silver, undated

Professional correspondenc

Stationary and non-stationary fluid flow of a Bose-Einstein condensate through a penetrable barrier

We experimentally study the fluid flow induced by a broad, penetrable barrier moving through an elongated dilute gaseous Bose-Einstein condensate. The barrier is created by a laser beam swept through the condensate, and the resulting dipole potential can be either attractive or repulsive. We examine both cases and find regimes of stable and unstable fluid flow: At slow speeds of the barrier, the fluid flow is stationary due to the superfluidity of the condensate. At intermediate speeds, we observe a non-stationary regime in which the condensate gets filled with dark solitons. At faster speeds, soliton formation completely ceases and a remarkable absence of excitation in the condensate is seen again.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

An Imaging Fabry-Perot System for the Robert Stobie Spectrograph on the Southern African Large Telescope

We present the design of the Fabry-Perot system of the Robert Stobie Spectrograph on the 10-meter class Southern African Large Telescope and its characterization as measured in the laboratory. This system provides spectroscopic imaging at any desired wavelength spanning a bandpass 430 - 860 nm, at four different spectral resolving powers ranging from 300 to 9000. Our laboratory tests revealed a wavelength dependence of the etalon gap and parallelism with a maximum variation between 600 - 720 nm that arises because of the complex structure of the broadband multi-layer dielectric coatings. We also report an unanticipated optical effect of this multi-layer coating structure that produces a significant, and wavelength dependent, change in the apparent shape of the etalon plates. This change is caused by two effects: the physical non-uniformities or thickness variations in the coating layers, and the wavelength dependence of the phase change upon refection that can amplify these non-uniformities. We discuss the impact of these coating effects on the resolving power, finesse, and throughput of the system. This Fabry-Perot system will provide a powerful tool for imaging spectroscopy on one of the world's largest telescopes.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journa