Effect of culling on individual badger (Meles meles) behaviour: potential implications for bovine tuberculosis transmission

1. Culling wildlife as a form of disease management can have unexpected and sometimes counterproductive outcomes. In the UK, badgers (Meles meles) are culled in efforts to reduce badger-to-cattle transmission of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB). However, culling has previously been associated with both increased and decreased incidence of M. bovis infection in cattle. 2. The adverse effects of culling have been linked to cull-induced changes in badger ranging, but such changes are not well documented at the individual level. Using GPS-collars, we characterised individual badger behaviour within an area subjected to widespread industry-led culling, comparing it with the same area before culling and with three unculled areas. 3. Culling was associated with a 61% increase (95% CI 27-103%) in monthly home range size, a 39% increase (95% CI 28-51%) in nightly maximum distance from the sett, and a 17% increase (95% CI 11-24%) in displacement between successive GPS-collar locations recorded at 20-minute intervals. Despite travelling further, we found a 91.2 minute (95% CI 67.1-115.3 minute) reduction in the nightly activity time of individual badgers associated with culling. These changes became apparent while culls were ongoing and persisted after culling ended. 4. Expanded ranging in culled areas was associated with individual badgers visiting 45% (95% CI 15-80%) more fields each month, suggesting that surviving individuals had the opportunity to contact more cattle. Moreover, surviving badgers showed a 19.9-fold increase (95% CI 10.8-36.4 increase) in the odds of trespassing into neighbouring group territories, increasing opportunities for intergroup contact. 5. Synthesis and Applications: Badger culling was associated with behavioural changes among surviving badgers which potentially increased opportunities for both badger-to-badger and badger-to-cattle transmission of M. bovis. Furthermore, by reducing the time badgers spent active, culling may have reduced badgers’ accessibility to shooters, potentially undermining subsequent population control efforts. Our results specifically illustrate the challenges posed by badger behaviour to cull-based TB control strategies and furthermore, they highlight the negative impacts culling can have on integrated disease control strategies

On Resilient Behaviors in Computational Systems and Environments

The present article introduces a reference framework for discussing resilience of computational systems. Rather than a property that may or may not be exhibited by a system, resilience is interpreted here as the emerging result of a dynamic process. Said process represents the dynamic interplay between the behaviors exercised by a system and those of the environment it is set to operate in. As a result of this interpretation, coherent definitions of several aspects of resilience can be derived and proposed, including elasticity, change tolerance, and antifragility. Definitions are also provided for measures of the risk of unresilience as well as for the optimal match of a given resilient design with respect to the current environmental conditions. Finally, a resilience strategy based on our model is exemplified through a simple scenario.Comment: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40860-015-0002-6 The paper considerably extends the results of two conference papers that are available at http://ow.ly/KWfkj and http://ow.ly/KWfgO. Text and formalism in those papers has been used or adapted in the herewith submitted pape

Electric and hydrogen rail : Potential contribution to net zero in the UK

Acknowledgements  This research was carried out under the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) as part of the ADdressing Valuation of Energy and Nature Together (ADVENT) funded project. Funding was received from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M019691/1), United Kingdom and the School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom. The authors would also like to thank Dr Christian Brand, University of Oxford, for giving them access to the Transport Energy and Air Pollution Model (TEAM-UK).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Japan and the UK : Emission predictions of electric and hydrogen rail to 2050

Acknowledgements This research was carried out under the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) as part of the ADdressing Valuation of Energy and Nature Together (ADVENT) funded project. Funding was received from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M019691/1), United Kingdom and the School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom. Funding was also received from the Postgraduate Research Grant from University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom. This work has also emanated from research supported in part by a research grant from Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) under the SFI Strategic Partnership Programme Grant number SFI/15/SPP/E3125. The authors would also like to thank Dr Christian Brand, University of Oxford, for giving them access and guidance regarding the Trans- port Energy and Air Pollution Model (TEAM‐UK).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A method for exploratory repeated-measures analysis applied to a breast-cancer screening study

When a model may be fitted separately to each individual statistical unit, inspection of the point estimates may help the statistician to understand between-individual variability and to identify possible relationships. However, some information will be lost in such an approach because estimation uncertainty is disregarded. We present a comparative method for exploratory repeated-measures analysis to complement the point estimates that was motivated by and is demonstrated by analysis of data from the CADET II breast-cancer screening study. The approach helped to flag up some unusual reader behavior, to assess differences in performance, and to identify potential random-effects models for further analysis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS481 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

FAST FLUX TEST FACILITY MONTHLY INFORMAL TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT AUGUST 1969

This report was prepared by Battelle-Northwest under Contract No. AT(45-1)-1830 for the Atomic·Energy Commission, Division of Reactor Development and Technology, to summarize technical progress made in the Fast Flux Test Facility Program during August 1969

To the Grand Committee of St. Thomas's Hospital.

n/

East Asia and the global/transatlantic/Western crisis

This paper introduces the special collection on East Asia and the Global Crisis. After justifying why a focus on East Asia is appropriate, it draws out the main themes that run through the individual contributions. These are the extent to which the region is decoupling from the global economy (or the West), the increasing legitimacy of statist alternatives to neoliberal development strategies, and the impact of crises on the definition of ―region‖ and the functioning of regional institutions and governance mechanisms

Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder: development of concensus referral criteria for specialist diagnostic assessment in Australia

Background: Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD) is known to be under-recognised in Australia. The use of standard methods to identify when to refer individuals who may have FASD for specialist assessment could help improve the identification of this disorder. The purpose of this study was to develop referral criteria for use in Australia. Method: An online survey about FASD screening and diagnosis in Australia, which included 23 statements describing criteria for referral for fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) and FASD based on published recommendations for referral in North America, was sent to 139 health professionals who had expertise or involvement in FASD screening or diagnosis. Survey findings and published criteria for referral were subsequently reviewed by a panel of 14 investigators at a consensus development workshop where criteria for referral were developed.Results: Among the 139 health professionals who were sent the survey, 103 (74%) responded, and 90 (65%) responded to the statements on criteria for referral. Over 80% of respondents agreed that referral for specialist evaluation should occur when there is evidence of significant prenatal alcohol exposure, defined as 7 or more standard drinks per week and at least 3 standard drinks on any one day, and more than 70% agreed with 13 of the16 statements that described criteria for referral other than prenatal alcohol exposure. Workshop participants recommended five independent criteria for referral: confirmed significant prenatal alcohol exposure; microcephaly and confirmed prenatal alcohol exposure; 2 or more significant central nervous system (CNS) abnormalities and confirmed prenatal alcohol exposure; 3 characteristic FAS facial anomalies; and 1 characteristic FAS facial anomaly, growth deficit and 1 or more CNS abnormalities .Conclusion: Referral criteria recommended for use in Australia are similar to those recommended in North America. There is a need to develop resources to raise awareness of these criteria among health professionals and evaluate their feasibility, acceptability and capacity to improve the identification of FASD in Australia