Asteroid (99942) Apophis: new predictions of Earth encounters for this potentially hazardous asteroid

Reproduced with permission. Copyright ESO.International audienceContext. The potentially hazardous asteroid (99942) Apophis, previously designated 2004 MN4, is emblematic of the study of asteroids that could impact the Earth in the near future. Orbit monitoring and error propagation analysis are mandatory to predict the probability of an impact and, furthermore, its possible mitigation. Several aspects for this prediction have to be investigated, in particular the orbit adjustment and prediction updates when new astrometric data are available. Aims: We analyze Apophis orbit and provide impact predictions based on new observational data, including several orbit propagations. Methods: New astrometric data of Apophis have been acquired at the Pic du Midi one-meter telescope (T1m) during March 2011. Indeed, this asteroid was again visible from ground-based stations after a period of several years of unfavorable conjunction with the Sun. We present here the original astrometric data and reduction, and the new orbit obtained from the adjustment to all data available at Minor Planet Center (until March 2011). Results: We present a new sketch of keyholes and impacts for the next century. Additionally, we discuss observational errors, astrometric reduction, orbit adjustment, and adequacy of the dynamical model used. Based on observations made at Pic du Midi station and data from IAU-MPC

The first observed stellar occultations by the irregular satellite Phoebe (Saturn IX) and improved rotational period

peer reviewedWe report six stellar occultations by Phoebe (Saturn IX), an irregular satellite of Saturn, obtained between mid-2017 and mid-2019. The 2017 July 6 event was the first stellar occultation by an irregular satellite ever observed. The occultation chords were compared to a 3D shape model of the satellite obtained from Cassini observations. The rotation period available in the literature led to a sub-observer point at the moment of the observed occultations where the chords could not fit the 3D model. A procedure was developed to identify the correct sub-observer longitude. It allowed us to obtain the rotation period with improved precision compared to the currently known value from literature. We show that the difference between the observed and the predicted sub-observer longitude suggests two possible solutions for the rotation period. By comparing these values with recently observed rotational light curves and single- chord stellar occultations, we can identify the best solution for Phoebe's rotational period as 9.27365 ± 0.00002 h. From the stellar occultations, we also obtained six geocentric astrometric positions in the ICRS as realized by the Gaia DR2 with uncertainties at the 1-mas level

Physical properties of the trans-Neptunian binary 2000 YW₁₃₄

The study of trans-Neptunian binaries (TNBs) remains one of the most active areas of progress in understanding the solar system beyond Neptune. TNBs have been found in every dynamical population of the trans-Neptunian region (Noll et al. 2020), with proportions ranging from 29 % in the cold classical population to 5.5 % for the remaining classes combined (Brunini 2020). The formation of the contact TNB Arrokoth is one of the challenges that formation models face nowadays. The current angular momentum of Arrokoth is too low and the current binary formation scenarios, by either rotational fission or streaming instability (Nesvorný et al. 2019), require also loss of angular momentum (McKinnon et al. 2020). Additionally, formation mechanisms of close binaries may be distinct from those for the wider pairs. As the angular momentum of a system approaches that of an object spinning near its critical rotation period, rotational fission is the most likely explanation for their formation (Descamps et al. 2008), which is thought to be the case for the proposed satellites of Varuna and 2002 TC302 systems (Fernández-Valenzuela et al. 2019; Ortiz et al. 2020). If close TNBs turn out to be common for objects rotating close to the breakup limit, that could reveal important clues about angular momentum evolution during accretion for TNOs (Petit et al. 2011). However, characterizing binary systems at such distances is challenging. From the ~120 known TNBs, only around 40 have their mutual orbit fully determined, let alone physical characterization. 2000 YW134 is a TNB in a 3:8 resonance with an orbital semi-major axis of 57.4 au (a rare occurrence). On February 23rd, 2022, it occulted the Gaia EDR3 star 627356458358636544 (V = 17.1 mag). The stellar occultation was initially predicted using the JPL orbit solution #24, and updated using data from the 1.5-m and 1.23-m telescopes at Sierra Nevada and Calar Alto Observatories, using the same methodology as explained in Ortiz et al (2020). From the 17 observatories involved, seven reported positive chords, with five of them corresponding to the main body and the other two chords corresponding to its satellite. We are currently working on the analysis of these data in order to obtain the physical properties that characterize the system. Preliminary results show that the lower limit for the equivalent projected diameter of the satellite is twice the previously estimated size from HST observations (Stephens et al. 2006). We will also compare our results with the area-equivalent diameter and albedo obtained using thermal data from Herschel and Spitzer observations (Farkas-Takács et al. 2020)

Toward a ground-based stellar occultation by a large TNO

International audienc

Toward a ground-based stellar occultation by a large TNO

International audienc

Toward a ground-based stellar occultation by a large TNO

International audienc

Asteroid Apophis orbit from recent observations

International audienceSince its discovery in 2004, asteroid (99942) Apophis previously designed 2004 MN4 became a study case. It was the first asteroid who reached level 4 on Torino Scale for a possible collision with the Earth in 2029. The last observations for Apophis were made in 2008 and the last results conclude on a collision probability of 1/250000 for the 2036-threat. Recent observations were made at Pic du Midi Observatory (France) and at Magdalena Ridge Observatory (New Mexico). We propose here an update of Apophis's orbit and the new predictions of encounters with Earth taking into account the Yarkovsky effect and stellar catalogue biases