Information Content of Equity Analyst Reports

This paper investigates the market reaction to the information released in security analyst reports. It shows that the market reacts significantly and positively to changes in recommendation levels, earnings forecasts, and price targets. While changes in price targets and earnings forecasts both provide information to the market, revisions in price targets have a larger and more significant impact than comparable revisions in earnings forecasts. The text of the report is also a significant source of information as it provides the justifications supporting an analyst's summary opinion. When all of this information is considered simultaneously, some of it, notably the earnings forecasts, is subsumed. The results further show that analysts correctly predict price targets slightly over 50% of the time. Finally, the valuation methodology used does not seem to be correlated with either the market's reaction or the analyst's accuracy.

Information Content of Equity Analyst Reports

This paper catalogs the complete text of a large sample of All-American Analyst reports and examines the market reaction to the information released. It shows that the text of the report, which provides the justifications supporting an analyst's summary opinion, provides information beyond that contained in earnings forecasts, recommendation levels, and price targets. Including the strength of the analyst's justifications, reduces, and in some models eliminates, the significance of the information available in earnings forecasts and recommendation revisions. By controlling for the simultaneous release of other information, we show that analyst reports do not merely repeat firm releases of information, but also provide both new information and/or interpretation of previously released information to the market. By examining whether the market's reaction differs by report type (i.e. upgrade, reiteration, or downgrade), we demonstrate that information in a report is most important for downgrades and that target prices and the strength of the justifications are the only elements that matter for reiterations. Finally, we find no correlation between the valuation methodology used by analysts and either the market's reaction to a report's release or the analyst's accuracy. Our adjusted R2 of nearly 26% is three or four times larger than that of other studies using only partial content from analyst reports

Reviews

The following publications have been reviewed by the mentioned authors;Let's Go Bananas with Fyffes - reviewed by Melanie FasciatoLiquids Mean Life - reviewed by Jonty KinsellaDesign and Make It! Food Technology for KS3 - reviewed by Dawn WilliamsFidget - reviewed by George AsquithFinding out about Managing Waste - reviewed by Ann MacGarryHands on! - reviewed by Les PorterSkills in Graphic Products and Teacher's Resource Pack - reviewed by Michael LawranceResistant Materials to GCSE - reviewed by Roman M. GawelInventing the Modern World - reviewed by David SpendloveC for PICmicro Microcontrollers - reviewed by David FosterHow Things Work Today - reviewed by Mark HudsonMachi-work: Education for Participation - reviewed by Maggie RogersOne Good Turn - reviewed by John Egglesto

High Incidence of Non-Random Template Strand Segregation and Asymmetric Fate Determination In Dividing Stem Cells and their Progeny

Decades ago, the “immortal strand hypothesis” was proposed as a means by which stem cells might limit acquiring mutations that could give rise to cancer, while continuing to proliferate for the life of an organism. Originally based on observations in embryonic cells, and later studied in terms of stem cell self-renewal, this hypothesis has remained largely unaccepted because of few additional reports, the rarity of the cells displaying template strand segregation, and alternative interpretations of experiments involving single labels or different types of labels to follow template strands. Using sequential pulses of halogenated thymidine analogs (bromodeoxyuridine [BrdU], chlorodeoxyuridine [CldU], and iododeoxyuridine [IdU]), and analyzing stem cell progeny during induced regeneration in vivo, we observed extraordinarily high frequencies of segregation of older and younger template strands during a period of proliferative expansion of muscle stem cells. Furthermore, template strand co-segregation was strongly associated with asymmetric cell divisions yielding daughters with divergent fates. Daughter cells inheriting the older templates retained the more immature phenotype, whereas daughters inheriting the newer templates acquired a more differentiated phenotype. These data provide compelling evidence of template strand co-segregation based on template age and associated with cell fate determination, suggest that template strand age is monitored during stem cell lineage progression, and raise important caveats for the interpretation of label-retaining cells

Human neutrophil kinetics: modeling of stable isotope labeling data supports short blood neutrophil half-lives.

Human neutrophils have traditionally been thought to have a short half-life in blood; estimates vary from 4-18 hours. This dogma was recently challenged by stable isotope labeling studies with heavy water which yielded estimates in excess of 3 days. To investigate this disparity we generated new stable isotope labeling data in healthy adult subjects using both heavy water (n=4) and deuterium-labeled glucose (n=9), a compound with more rapid labeling kinetics. To interpret results we developed a novel mechanistic model. We applied this model to both previously-published (n=5) and newly-generated data. We initially constrained the ratio of the blood neutrophil pool to the marrow precursor pool (R=0.26, from published values). Analysis of heavy water datasets yielded turnover rates consistent with a short blood half-life, but parameters, particularly marrow transit-time, were poorly-defined. Analysis of glucose-labeling data yielded more precise estimates of half-life, 0.79 ± 0.25 days (19 hours), and marrow transit-time, 5.80 ± 0.42 days. Substitution of this marrow transit-time in the heavy water analysis gave a better-defined blood half-life, 0.77 ± 0.14 days (18.5 hours), close to glucose-derived values. Allowing R to vary yielded a best-fit value, R=0.19. Reanalysis of the previously-published model and data also revealed the origin of their long estimates for neutrophil half-life, an implicit assumption that R is very large, which is physiologically untenable. We conclude that stable isotope labeling in healthy humans is consistent with a blood neutrophil half-life of less than one day

The Fate of Firms: Explaining Mergers and Bankruptcies

Using a uniquely complete data set of more than 50,000 observations of approximately 16,000 corporations, we test theories that seek to explain which firms become merger targets and which firms go bankrupt. We find that merger activity is much greater during prosperous periods than during recessions. In bad economic times, firms in industries with high bankruptcy rates are less likely to file for bankruptcy than they are in better years, supporting the market illiquidity arguments made by Shleifer and Vishny (1992). At the firm level, we find that, among poorly performing firms, the likelihood of merger increases with poorer performance, but among better performing firms, the relation is reversed and chances of merger increase with better performance. Such a changing relation has not been detected in prior merger studies. We also find that low-growth, resource-rich firms are prime acquisition targets and that firms’ debt capacity relates negatively to the likelihood of a merger. Debt-related variables, leverage and secured debt, play an especially prominent role in distinguishing between which firms merge and which firms go bankrupt

Community Capacity for Implementing Clean Development Mechanism Projects Within Community Forests in Cameroon

There is a growing assumption that payments for environmental services including carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emission reduction provide an opportunity for poverty reduction and the enhancement of sustainable development within integrated natural resource management approaches. Yet in experiential terms, community-based natural resource management implementation falls short of expectations in many cases. In this paper, we investigate the asymmetry between community capacity and the Land Use Land Use Change Forestry (LULUCF) provisions of the Clean Development Mechanism within community forests in Cameroon. We use relevant aspects of the Clean Development Mechanism criteria and notions of “community capacity” to elucidate determinants of community capacity needed for CDM implementation within community forests. The main requirements are for community capacity to handle issues of additionality, acceptability, externalities, certification, and community organisation. These community capacity requirements are further used to interpret empirically derived insights on two community forestry cases in Cameroon. While local variations were observed for capacity requirements in each case, community capacity was generally found to be insufficient for meaningful uptake and implementation of Clean Development Mechanism projects. Implications for understanding factors that could inhibit or enhance community capacity for project development are discussed. We also include recommendations for the wider Clean Development Mechanism/Kyoto capacity building framework

HLA Class I Binding of HBZ Determines Outcome in HTLV-1 Infection

CD8(+) T cells can exert both protective and harmful effects on the virus-infected host. However, there is no systematic method to identify the attributes of a protective CD8(+) T cell response. Here, we combine theory and experiment to identify and quantify the contribution of all HLA class I alleles to host protection against infection with a given pathogen. In 432 HTLV-1-infected individuals we show that individuals with HLA class I alleles that strongly bind the HTLV-1 protein HBZ had a lower proviral load and were more likely to be asymptomatic. We also show that in general, across all HTLV-1 proteins, CD8(+) T cell effectiveness is strongly determined by protein specificity and produce a ranked list of the proteins targeted by the most effective CD8(+) T cell response through to the least effective CD8(+) T cell response. We conclude that CD8(+) T cells play an important role in the control of HTLV-1 and that CD8(+) cells specific to HBZ, not the immunodominant protein Tax, are the most effective. We suggest that HBZ plays a central role in HTLV-1 persistence. This approach is applicable to all pathogens, even where data are sparse, to identify simultaneously the HLA Class I alleles and the epitopes responsible for a protective CD8(+) T cell response

Avoiding the uncanny valley : robot appearance, personality and consistency of behavior in an attention-seeking home scenario for a robot companion

“The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com”. Copyright Springer. DOI: 10.1007/s10514-007-9058-3This article presents the results of video-based Human Robot Interaction (HRI) trials which investigated people’s perceptions of different robot appearances and associated attention-seeking features and behaviors displayed by robots with different appearance and behaviors. The HRI trials studied the participants’ preferences for various features of robot appearance and behavior, as well as their personality attributions towards the robots compared to their own personalities. Overall, participants tended to prefer robots with more human-like appearance and attributes. However, systematic individual differences in the dynamic appearance ratings are not consistent with a universal effect. Introverts and participants with lower emotional stability tended to prefer the mechanical looking appearance to a greater degree than other participants. It is also shown that it is possible to rate individual elements of a particular robot’s behavior and then assess the contribution, or otherwise, of that element to the overall perception of the robot by people. Relating participants’ dynamic appearance ratings of individual robots to independent static appearance ratings provided evidence that could be taken to support a portion of the left hand side of Mori’s theoretically proposed ‘uncanny valley’ diagram. Suggestions for future work are outlined.Peer reviewe