Estimating seismic fragility of a semi-buried square RC water tank using expert judgement

The assessment of the seismic fragility of water networks is the key to characterizing their risk exposure to strong earthquakes. In the HORIZON2020 IMPROVER project, we focused our attention on the water network of Barreiro, a municipality close to Lisbon, Portugal. To determine vulnerability to ground shaking, the seismic fragility of each key component of the network needed to be determined. To exemplify our approach, we concentrate here on assessing the fragility of a semi-buried RC square water tank; previous studies have overwhelmingly focused on the seismic fragility of cylindrical (and mainly steel) water tanks. Relevant fragility parameters are inevitably uncertain, and our study made use of a sample of experts’ judgements, pooled using the Cooke’s Classical Model. This structured approach derives performance weights for experts’ abilities to quantify uncertainty in a statistically accurate sense and informatively, and then applies these weights to their uncertainty judgements on modelling parameters of concern. The unique empirical control in this procedure ensures an objective, rational consensus is obtained on the uncertainties to ascribe to different contributory factors. The main challenge in our study is to construct a suitable discrete damage scale, and to explore the possibility the tank might suffer liquefaction damage, given its proximity to the River Tagus and groundwater conditions at site. Provisional findings from the exercise are presented here and compared to existing fragility curves constructed for cylindrical RC tanks. The square tank was found to be more vulnerable than a cylindrical one

Interactive Simplifier Tracing and Debugging in Isabelle

The Isabelle proof assistant comes equipped with a very powerful tactic for term simplification. While tremendously useful, the results of simplifying a term do not always match the user's expectation: sometimes, the resulting term is not in the form the user expected, or the simplifier fails to apply a rule. We describe a new, interactive tracing facility which offers insight into the hierarchical structure of the simplification with user-defined filtering, memoization and search. The new simplifier trace is integrated into the Isabelle/jEdit Prover IDE.Comment: Conferences on Intelligent Computer Mathematics, 201

Mobile Resource Guarantees for Smart Devices

Abstract. We present the Mobile Resource Guarantees framework: a system for ensuring that downloaded programs are free from run-time violations of resource bounds. Certificates are attached to code in the form of efficiently checkable proofs of resource bounds; in contrast to cryptographic certificates of code origin, these are independent of trust networks. A novel programming language with resource constraints encoded in function types is used to streamline the generation of proofs of resource usage.

Antibody-based detection of protein phosphorylation status to track the efficacy of novel therapies using nanogram protein quantities from stem cells and cell lines

This protocol describes a highly reproducible antibody-based method that provides protein level and phosphorylation status information from nanogram quantities of protein cell lysate. Nanocapillary isoelectric focusing (cIEF) combines with UV-activated linking chemistry to detect changes in phosphorylation status. As an example application, we describe how to detect changes in response to tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) in the phosphorylation status of the adaptor protein ​CrkL, a major substrate of the oncogenic tyrosine kinase ​BCR-​ABL in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), using highly enriched CML stem cells and mature cell populations in vitro. This protocol provides a 2.5 pg/nl limit of protein detection (<0.2% of a stem cell sample containing <104 cells). Additional assays are described for phosphorylated tyrosine 207 (pTyr207)-​CrkL and the protein tyrosine phosphatase ​PTPRC/​CD45; these assays were developed using this protocol and applied to CML patient samples. This method is of high throughput, and it can act as a screen for in vitro cancer stem cell response to drugs and novel agents

Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: an example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Following a cessation in eruptive activity it is important to understand how a volcano will behave in the future and when it may next erupt. Such an assessment can be based on the volcano's long-term pattern of behaviour and insights into its current state via monitoring observations. We present a Bayesian network that integrates these two strands of evidence to forecast future eruptive scenarios using expert elicitation. The Bayesian approach provides a framework to quantify the magmatic causes in terms of volcanic effects (i.e., eruption and unrest). In October 2013, an expert elicitation was performed to populate a Bayesian network designed to help forecast future eruptive (in-)activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano. The Bayesian network was devised to assess the state of the shallow magmatic system, as a means to forecast the future eruptive activity in the context of the long-term behaviour at similar dome-building volcanoes. The findings highlight coherence amongst experts when interpreting the current behaviour of the volcano, but reveal considerable ambiguity when relating this to longer patterns of volcanism at dome-building volcanoes, as a class. By asking questions in terms of magmatic causes, the Bayesian approach highlights the importance of using short-term unrest indicators from monitoring data as evidence in long-term forecasts at volcanoes. Furthermore, it highlights potential biases in the judgements of volcanologists and identifies sources of uncertainty in terms of magmatic causes rather than scenario-based outcomes

Evidence of continued injecting drug use after attaining sustained treatment-induced clearance of the hepatitis C virus: implications for reinfection

Background: People who inject drugs (PWID) are at the greatest risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, yet are often denied immediate treatment due to fears of on-going risk behaviour. Our principal objective was to examine evidence of continued injecting drug use among PWID following successful treatment for HCV and attainment of a sustained viral response (SVR). Methods: PWID who attained SVR between 1992 and June 2012 were selected from the National Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database. Hospitalisation and mortality records were sourced for these patients using record linkage techniques. Our primary outcome variable was any hospitalisation or death, which was indicative of injecting drugs post-SVR. Results: The cohort comprised 1170 PWID (mean age at SVR 39.6y; 76% male). The Kaplan Meier estimate of incurring the primary outcome after three years of SVR was 10.59% (95% CI, 8.75–12.79) After adjusting for confounding, the risk of an injection related hospital episode or death post-SVR was significantly increased with advancing year of SVR: AHR:1.07 per year (95% CI, 1.01–1.14), having a pre-SVR acute alcohol intoxication-related hospital episode: AHR:1.83 (95% CI, 1.29–2.60), and having a pre-SVR opiate or injection-related hospital episode: AHR:2.59 (95% CI, 1.84–3.64). Conclusion: Despite attaining the optimal treatment outcome, these data indicate that an increasing significant minority of PWID continue to inject post-SVR at an intensity which leads to either hospitalisation or death and increased risk of reinfection

Striving for excellence in maternity care: The Maternity Stream of the City of Sanctuary.

yesAsylum-seeking and refugee (AS&R) women living in the UK often have complex health and social care needs, with poor underlying mental and physical health and an increased risk of negative pregnancy outcomes. Despite this, AS&R women are less likely to attend for timely maternity care and when they do, care may be poor, with staff not understanding their specific needs and displaying poor attitudes. This article discusses the Maternity Stream of the City of Sanctuary and how this charity aims to work with statutory and voluntary sector maternity-related services and groups to develop services that are inclusive for AS&R women and meet their specific needs. Volunteer AS&R women are central to the activities of the Maternity Stream and this article discusses how they engage with midwives and other maternity workers to facilitate the development of services that may ultimately improve pregnancy outcomes for AS&R women