Using and evaluating audit decision aids

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1031/thumbnail.jp

Depletion potentials in highly size-asymmetric binary hard-sphere mixtures: Comparison of accurate simulation results with theory

We report a detailed study, using state-of-the-art simulation and theoretical methods, of the depletion potential between a pair of big hard spheres immersed in a reservoir of much smaller hard spheres, the size disparity being measured by the ratio of diameters q=\sigma_s/\sigma_b. Small particles are treated grand canonically, their influence being parameterized in terms of their packing fraction in the reservoir, \eta_s^r. Two specialized Monte Carlo simulation schemes --the geometrical cluster algorithm, and staged particle insertion-- are deployed to obtain accurate depletion potentials for a number of combinations of q\leq 0.1 and \eta_s^r. After applying corrections for simulation finite-size effects, the depletion potentials are compared with the prediction of new density functional theory (DFT) calculations based on the insertion trick using the Rosenfeld functional and several subsequent modifications. While agreement between the DFT and simulation is generally good, significant discrepancies are evident at the largest reservoir packing fraction accessible to our simulation methods, namely \eta_s^r=0.35. These discrepancies are, however, small compared to those between simulation and the much poorer predictions of the Derjaguin approximation at this \eta_s^r. The recently proposed morphometric approximation performs better than Derjaguin but is somewhat poorer than DFT for the size ratios and small sphere packing fractions that we consider. The effective potentials from simulation, DFT and the morphometric approximation were used to compute the second virial coefficient B_2 as a function of \eta_s^r. Comparison of the results enables an assessment of the extent to which DFT can be expected to correctly predict the propensity towards fluid fluid phase separation in additive binary hard sphere mixtures with q\leq 0.1.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, revised treatment of morphometric approximation and reordered some materia

Diffractive Contribution to the Elasticity and the Nucleonic Flux in the Atmosphere

We calculate the average elasticity considering non-diffractive and single diffractive interactions and perform an analysis of the cosmic-ray flux by means of an analytical solution for the nucleonic diffusion equation. We show that the diffractive contribution is important for the adequate description of the nucleonic and hadronic fluxes in the atmosphere.Comment: 10 pages, latex, 2 figures (uuencoded PostScript

Blood neurofilament light in remote settings: Alternative protocols to support sample collection in challenging pre-analytical conditions

INTRODUCTION: This study investigated alternative pre‐analytical handling of blood for neurofilament light (NfL) analysis where resources are limited. METHOD: Plasma NfL was measured with single molecule array after alternative blood processing procedures: dried plasma spots (DPS), dried blood spots (DBS), and delayed 48‐hour centrifugation. These were compared to standardized plasma processing (reference standard [RS]). In a discovery cohort (n = 10) and a confirmatory cohort (n = 21), whole blood was obtained from individuals with unknown clinical etiology. In the confirmatory cohort, delayed centrifugation protocol was paired with either 37°C incubation or sample shaking to test the effect of these parameters. RESULTS: Delayed centrifugation (R^{2}= 0.991) and DPS (discovery cohort, R^{2} = 0.954; confirmatory cohort, DPS: R^{2} = 0.961) methods were strongly associated with the RS. Delayed centrifugation with higher temperatures (R^{2} = 0.995) and shaking (R^{2} = 0.975) did not affect this association. DPS (P < 0.001) returned concentrations considerably lower than the RS. DISCUSSION: did not affect this association. DPS (P < 0.001) returned concentrations considerably lower than the RS

Multistability of free spontaneously-curved anisotropic strips

Multistable structures are objects with more than one stable conformation, exemplified by the simple switch. Continuum versions are often elastic composite plates or shells, such as the common measuring tape or the slap bracelet, both of which exhibit two stable configurations: rolled and unrolled. Here we consider the energy landscape of a general class of multistable anisotropic strips with spontaneous Gaussian curvature. We show that while strips with non-zero Gaussian curvature can be bistable, strips with positive spontaneous curvature are always bistable, independent of the elastic moduli, strips of spontaneous negative curvature are bistable only in the presence of spontaneous twist and when certain conditions on the relative stiffness of the strip in tension and shear are satisfied. Furthermore, anisotropic strips can become tristable when their bending rigidity is small. Our study complements and extends the theory of multistability in anisotropic shells and suggests new design criteria for these structures.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figure

An update on fluid biomarkers for neurodegenerative diseases: recent success and challenges ahead.

Over the last twenty years, the characterization of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients has progressed from a description of clinical symptomatology followed by neuropathological findings at autopsy to in vivo pathophysiological signatures using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and positron emission tomography (PET). Additionally, CSF biomarkers now reflect synaptic pathology, axonal injury and neuroinflammation. Novel techniques are capable of measuring proteins of pathophysiological importance at femtomolar concentrations in blood (e.g. amyloid, tau species and neurofilaments), which enable screening of large populations in the near future. This will be essential for secondary prevention trials and clinical management. However, common diseases such as dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson's disease and frontotemporal dementias, are still without reliable diagnostic biomarkers, although emerging techniques show promising pilot results for some of these diseases. This is likely to change in the next few years, which will be crucial to stratify populations enrolling in clinical trials, since pathologies often coexist

Large-scale coastal and fluvial models constrain the late Holocene evolution of the Ebro Delta

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth Surface Dynamics 5 (2017): 585-603, doi:10.5194/esurf-5-585-2017.The distinctive plan-view shape of the Ebro Delta coast reveals a rich morphologic history. The degree to which the form and depositional history of the Ebro and other deltas represent autogenic (internal) dynamics or allogenic (external) forcing remains a prominent challenge for paleo-environmental reconstructions. Here we use simple coastal and fluvial morphodynamic models to quantify paleo-environmental changes affecting the Ebro Delta over the late Holocene. Our findings show that these models are able to broadly reproduce the Ebro Delta morphology, with simple fluvial and wave climate histories. Based on numerical model experiments and the preserved and modern shape of the Ebro Delta plain, we estimate that a phase of rapid shoreline progradation began approximately 2100 years BP, requiring approximately a doubling in coarse-grained fluvial sediment supply to the delta. River profile simulations suggest that an instantaneous and sustained increase in coarse-grained sediment supply to the delta requires a combined increase in both flood discharge and sediment supply from the drainage basin. The persistence of rapid delta progradation throughout the last 2100 years suggests an anthropogenic control on sediment supply and flood intensity. Using proxy records of the North Atlantic Oscillation, we do not find evidence that changes in wave climate aided this delta expansion. Our findings highlight how scenario-based investigations of deltaic systems using simple models can assist first-order quantitative paleo-environmental reconstructions, elucidating the effects of past human influence and climate change, and allowing a better understanding of the future of deltaic landforms.This study was supported by NSF grant EAR-0952146

Assessing the effects of the first 2 years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in 2013–2015

Culling badgers to control the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) between this wildlife reservoir and cattle has been widely debated. Industry-led culling began in Somerset and Gloucestershire between August and November 2013 to reduce local badger populations. Industry-led culling is not designed to be a randomised and controlled trial of the impact of culling on cattle incidence. Nevertheless, it is important to monitor the effects of the culling and, taking the study limitations into account, perform a cautious evaluation of the impacts. A standardised method for selecting areas matched to culling areas in factors found to affect cattle TB risk has been developed to evaluate the impact of badger culling on cattle TB incidence. The association between cattle TB incidence and badger culling in the first two years has been assessed. Descriptive analyses without controlling for confounding showed no association between culling and TB incidence for Somerset, or for either of the buffer areas for the first two years since culling began. A weak association was observed in Gloucestershire for Year 1 only. Multivariable analysis adjusting for confounding factors showed that reductions in TB incidence were associated with culling in the first two years in both the Somerset and Gloucestershire intervention areas when compared to areas with no culling (IRR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.72-0.87, p<0.001 and IRR: 0.42, 95%CI: 0.34-0.51, p<0.001 respectively). An increase in incidence was associated with culling in the 2 km buffer surrounding the Somerset intervention area (IRR: 1.38, 95%CI: 1.09-1.75, p=0.008), but not in Gloucestershire (IRR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.77-1.07, p=0.243). As only two intervention areas with two years’ of data are available for analysis, and the biological cause-effect relationship behind the statistical associations is difficult to determine, it would be unwise to use these findings to develop generalisable inferences about the effectiveness of the policy at present

Antibody responses to nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults: A longitudinal household study

Background. Natural immunity to Streptococcus pneumoniae is thought to be induced by exposure to S. pneumoniae or cross-reactive antigens. No longitudinal studies of carriage of and immune responses to S. pneumoniae have been conducted using sophisticated immunological laboratory techniques.Methods. We enrolled 121 families with young children into this study. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were collected monthly for 10 months from all family members and were cultured in a standard fashion. Cultured S. pneumoniae isolates were serotyped. At the beginning (month 0) and end (month 10) of the study, venous blood was collected from family members 118 years old. Serotype-specific antipolysaccharide immunoglobulin G (IgG) and functional antibody and antibodies to pneumolysin, pneumococcal surface protein A (PspA), and pneumococcal surface antigen A (PsaA) were measured in paired serum samples.Results. Levels of anticapsular IgG increased significantly after carriage of serotypes 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F by an individual or family member. For serotype 14, a higher level of anticapsular IgG at the beginning of the study was associated with reduced odds of carriage (P = .0006). There was a small (similar to 20%) but significant increase in titers of antibodies to PsaA and pneumolysin but no change in titers of antibody to PspA.Conclusions. Adults respond to NP carriage by mounting anticapsular and weak antiprotein antibody responses, and naturally induced anticapsular IgG can prevent carriage

Differences between blood and cerebrospinal fluid glial fibrillary Acidic protein levels: The effect of sample stability

Introduction: Recent evidence has shown that the marker of reactive astrogliosis, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), has a stronger relationship with cerebral amyloid beta (Aβ) pathology in blood than in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). This study investigates if pre-analytical treatment of blood and CSF contribute to these unexpected findings. Methods: Paired CSF and serum samples from 49 individuals (Aβ-negative = 28; Aβ-positive = 21) underwent a series of seven freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs). All samples were analyzed for GFAP and neurofilament light (NfL) using single molecule array technology including a fresh unfrozen sample from each patient. Results: FTC significantly affected CSF GFAP concentration (−188.12 pg/ml per FTC) but not serum GFAP. In the same samples, NfL remained stable. Serum GFAP had a higher discrimination of Aβ burden than CSF GFAP, irrespective of FTC, which also included unfrozen samples. Discussion: This study demonstrates large stability differences of GFAP in CSF and serum. However, this disparity does not seem to fully explain the stronger association of serum GFAP with Aβ pathology. Further work should investigate mechanisms of GFAP release into the bloodstream under pathological conditions