Risk factors for Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape province, South Africa

Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates.Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1)

Risk Factors for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Death in a Population Cohort Study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Abstract Background Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. Methods We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates. Results Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID-19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1). Conclusions While our findings may overestimate HIV- and tuberculosis-associated COVID-19 mortality risks due to residual confounding, both living with HIV and having current tuberculosis were independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality. The associations between age, sex, and other comorbidities and COVID-19 mortality were similar to those in other settings. </jats:sec

The Effect of Ethnicity in the Rate of Beta-Cell Functional Loss in the First 3 Years After Type 1 Diabetes Diagnosis

Abstract Objective We set forth to compare ethnicities for metabolic and immunological characteristics at the clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and assess the effect of ethnicity on beta-cell functional loss within 3 years after clinical diagnosis. Research Methods and Design We studied participants in TrialNet New Onset Intervention Trials (n = 624, median age = 14.4 years, 58% male, 8.7% Hispanic) and followed them prospectively for 3 years. Mixed meal tolerance tests (MMTT) were performed within 6 months following clinical diagnosis and repeated semiannually. Unless otherwise indicated, analyses were adjusted for age, sex, BMI Z-score, and diabetes duration. Results At T1D clinical diagnosis, Hispanics, compared with non-Hispanic whites (NHW), had a higher frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) (44.7% vs 25.3%, OR = 2.36, P = 0.01), lower fasting glucose (97 vs 109 mg/dL, P = 0.02) and higher fasting C-peptide (1.23 vs 0.94 ng/mL, P = 0.02) on the first MMTT, and higher frequency of ZnT8 autoantibody positivity (n = 201, 94.1% vs 64%, OR = 7.98, P = 0.05). After exclusion of participants in experimental arms of positive clinical trials, C-peptide area under the curve (AUC) trajectories during the first 3 years after clinical diagnosis were not significantly different between Hispanics and NHW after adjusting for age, sex, BMI-z score, and DKA (n = 413, P = 0.14). Conclusion Despite differences in the metabolic and immunological characteristics at clinical diagnosis of T1D between Hispanics and NHW, C-peptide trajectories did not differ significantly in the first 3 years following clinical diagnosis after adjustment for body mass index and other confounders. These findings may inform the design of observational studies and intervention trials in T1D. </jats:sec