Stochastic demand forecast and inventory management of a seasonal product a supply chain system

Estimation of seasonal demand prior to an active demand season is essential in supply chain management. The business cycle of the seasonal demand is divided into two stages: stage-1, the slow-demand period, and stage-2, the peak-demand period. The focus here is to determine an appropriate demand forecast for the peak-demand period. In the first set of forecasting model, a standard gamma and an inverse gamma prior distribution are used to forecast demand. The parameters of the prior model are estimated and updated based on current observation using Bayesian technique. The forecasts are derived for both complete and incomplete datasets. The second set of forecast is derived by ARIMA method using Box-Jenkins approaches. A Bayesian ARIMA is proposed to forecast demand from incomplete dataset. A partial dataset of a seasonal product, collected from the US census bureau, is used in the models. Missing values in the dataset often arise in various situations. The models are extended to forecast demand from an incomplete dataset by the assumption that the original dataset contains missing values. The forecast by a multiplicative exponential smoothing model is used to compare all the forecast. The performances are tested by several error measures such as relative errors, mean absolute deviation, and tracking signals. A newsvendor inventory model with emergency procurement options and a periodic review model are studied to determine the procurement quantity and inventory costs. The inventory cost of each demand forecast relative to the cost of actual demand is used as the basis to choose an appropriate forecast for the dataset. This study improves the quality of demand forecasts and determines the best forecast. The result reveals that forecasting models using Bayesian ARIMA model and Bayesian probability models perform better. The flexibility in the Bayesian approaches allows wider variability in the model parameters helps to improve demand forecasts. These models are particularly useful when past demand information is incomplete or limited to few periods. Furthermore, it was found that improvements in demand forecasting can provide better cost reductions than relying on inventory models

Supply chain models for an assembly system with preprocessing of raw materials

An assembly line that procures raw materials from outside suppliers and processes the materials into finished products is considered in this research. An ordering policy is proposed for raw materials to meet the requirement of a production facility, which, in turn, must deliver finish products in a fixed quantity at a fixed time interval to the outside buyers. Two different types of raw materials, ‘unfinished’ and ‘ready-to-use’, are procured for the manufacturing system. The ‘unfinished raw materials’ are turned into ‘processed raw materials’ after preprocessing. In the assembly line, the ‘processed raw materials’ and the ‘ready raw materials’ are assembled to convert into the final products. A cost model is developed to aggregate the total costs of raw materials, Work-in-process, and finished goods inventory. Based on the product design and manufacturing requirement a relationship is established between the raw materials and the finished products at different stages of production. A non-linear integer-programming model is developed to determine the optimal ordering policies for procurement of raw materials, and shipment of assembly product, which ultimately minimize the total costs of the model. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the solution technique. Sensitivity analysis is performed to show the effects of the parameters on the total cost model. Future research direction is suggested for further improvement of the existing results

Risk Identifier of Electronic Procurement Process based on Fuzzy AHP and AHP Method

Risk identifier is a vital function for electronic procurement system. To avoid risk potentialities, a knowledge base is developed which provides risk messages to users to mitigate the risk in the corresponding area of risk attributes defined and an acceptable vulnerability is provided to users through algorithm execution. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and risk mitigation algorithm is the key strength for the newly developed system model of risk removal.  Both Fuzzy and AHP based MCDM approach has been executed and the results have been compared. Keywords: Fuzzy Pair wise decision matrix, Risk Identifier, Risk Mitigation Algorithm, Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), AH

Motion hints based video coding

The persistent growth of video-based applications is heavily dependent on the advancements in video coding systems. Modern video codecs use the motion model itself to describe the geometric boundaries of moving objects in video sequences and thereby spend a significant portion of their bit rate refining the motion description in regions where motion discontinuities exist. This explicit communication of motion introduces redundancy, since some aspects of the motion can at least partially be inferred from the reference frames. In this thesis work, a novel bi-directional motion hints based prediction paradigm is proposed that moves away from the traditional redundant approach of careful partitioning around object boundaries by exploiting the spatial structure of the reference frames to infer appropriate boundaries for the intermediate ones. Motion hint provide a global description of motion over specific domain. Fundamentally this is related to the segmentation of foreground from background regions where the foreground and background motions are the motion hints. The appealing thing about motion hints is that they are continuous and invertible, even though the observed motion field for a frame is discontinuous and non-invertible. Experimental results show that at low bit rate applications, the motion hints based coder achieved a rate-distortion (RD) gain of 0.81 dB, or equivalently 13.38% savings in bit rate over the H.264/AVC reference. In a hybrid setting, this gain increased to 0.94 dB and 20.41% bit rebate is obtained. If both low and high bit rate scenarios are considered then the hybrid coder showed a RD performance of 0.80 dB, or equivalently 16.57% savings in bit rate. The usage of higher fractional pixel accurate motion hint, predictive coding of motion hint, a memory-based initialization for motion hint estimation improved the RD gain to 0.85 dB and 17.55% of bit rebate. The prediction framework is highly flexible in the sense that the motion model order for the hints can be content adaptive i.e. it can accommodate different motion models like affine, elastic, etc. Detecting motion discontinuity macroblocks (MBs) is a challenging task and the prediction paradigm managed to detect a significant number of such MBs. If the motion hints based prediction is used as a prediction mode for MBs, at low bit rates almost 50% of the motion discontinuity MBs chose to use affine hint mode and this number increased to 60% if elastic hint is used

Anti-disturbance composite tracking control for a coupled two-tank MIMO process with experimental studies

Coupled multiple-tank systems are very important for a wide range of industrial applications due to their unique uses. However, the liquid level control for the coupled two-tank multi-input multi-output (MIMO) system is quite challenging because it has strong nonlinearity and coupling, and it is susceptible to multiple external disturbances. For this process, this paper proposes a novel anti-disturbance control strategy consisting on a nonlinear composite hierarchical anti-disturbance predictive control (CHADPC). First, a model-based explicit nonlinear model predictive controller (ENMPC) is designed assuming that all disturbances are measurable and its global exponential stability is proved. Then, a nonlinear disturbance observer (DO) is designed to estimate the lumped disturbances. The composite controller handling the estimated disturbances is then proposed. Finally, simulation and experimental tracking control tests under perturbations and comparisons with recently reported works have been carried out to highlight the promising performance of the proposed ENMPC and CHADPC schemes

Altered renal function and the development of angiotensin II-dependent hypertension

Inappropriate modulation of the renin angiotensin system (RAS) can lead to derangements of blood pressure homeostasis in humans. Cyp1a1-mRen2.F transgenic rats were used to define the renal mechanisms underlying the development of angiotensin II-dependent hypertension. These transgenic rats were previously generated by introducing the mouse Ren2 gene into the rat genome under the control of a Cyp1a1 inducible promoter. The aim of the current investigation was to establish the contribution of renal function to the development of hypertension in the Cyp1a1- mRen2.F transgenic rat. Expression of the mRen2 transgene was induced by daily gavage of indole 3 carbinol (I3C) at the dose of 100mg/kg. Blood pressure was measured in conscious rats after 1, 3 or 7 days of treatment. The control group received the vegetable oil carrier for 7 days. In addition blood pressure, renal haemodynamics and excretory function were measured under thiobutabarbital anaesthesia. Transgene induction caused a progressive increase in blood pressure in a time dependent manner. Neither glomerular filtration rate nor renal blood flow was affected. This indicates proper function of renal autoregulation during the experimental time course. Tubular sodium reabsorption was significantly increased after the first day of transgene induction and this effect was sustained for the duration of treatment. A pharmacological approach was used to localize the increased reabsorption to a specific region of the nephron and was found to reflect increased activity of the thiazide-sensitive cotransporter (NCC). Chronic administration of thiazide significantly blunted the hypertensive response to transgene induction. Similarly AT1 receptor blockade attenuated the hypertensive phenotype and prevented the transgene-induced stimulation of NCC activity. In contrast, mineralocorticoid receptor blockade did not prevent the development of either hypertension or increased NCC activity. The current study suggests that the development of angiotensin II-dependent hypertension is mediated by increased tubular sodium reabsorption. Increased activity of NCC is a key hypertensive mechanism in this model and results directly from the actions of angiotensin II at the AT1 receptor; indirect aldosterone pathways do not play a major role

Performances of Various Back-propagation Learning Algorithms of Neural Network Using Matlab

There are plenty of back-propagation learning algorithms of artificial neural network. Performances of various back-propagation learning algorithms have been checked using few portions of Australian Rain Dataset. Polak-Ribiere conjugate gradient back-propagation and Levenberg-Marquardt back-propagation have showed good performance than others

Human-Machine Collaborative Video Coding Through Cuboidal Partitioning

Video coding algorithms encode and decode an entire video frame while feature coding techniques only preserve and communicate the most critical information needed for a given application. This is because video coding targets human perception, while feature coding aims for machine vision tasks. Recently, attempts are being made to bridge the gap between these two domains. In this work, we propose a video coding framework by leveraging on to the commonality that exists between human vision and machine vision applications using cuboids. This is because cuboids, estimated rectangular regions over a video frame, are computationally efficient, has a compact representation and object centric. Such properties are already shown to add value to traditional video coding systems. Herein cuboidal feature descriptors are extracted from the current frame and then employed for accomplishing a machine vision task in the form of object detection. Experimental results show that a trained classifier yields superior average precision when equipped with cuboidal features oriented representation of the current test frame. Additionally, this representation costs 7% less in bit rate if the captured frames are need be communicated to a receiver

The outcome of third stage of labor using carbetocin following vaginal delivery

Background: Primary postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a major cause of morbidity and the leading cause of direct maternal death worldwide. Carbetocin, a synthetic analog of oxytocin, has an elimination half-life of 40 minutes compared with 10 minutes for oxytocin, Methods: This cross-section observational study was conducted at the department of obstetrics and gynaecology, Shaheed Suhrawardy medical college hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study period was from May 2016 to October 2016. 100 women undergoing normal vaginal delivery were the study subject. A convenient sampling technique was used in this study. Necessary data was collected in the data collection sheet. A standardized deliver mat (Quaiyum's mat) was used before placental removal for measuring blood loss. Carbetocin was an intervention in this study. Statistical analysis was carried out by using the statistical package for social sciences version 19.0 for Windows (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA). The mean values were calculated by frequencies and percentages. Result: In this study, the majority 54 (54.0%) of patients belonged to age 20-25 years, followed by 30, (30.0%) >25 years. Regarding the occupational status of the patients, it was observed that the majority of 92 (92.0%) patients were housewives. It was observed that the majority of 93 (93.0%) patients had regular menstrual history. Concerning the clinical indices, anaemia was found 69 (69.0%), jaundice 08 (8.0%) and edema 24 (24.0%). Primi para was found 59 (59.0%) and multipara was 41 (41.0%). Primigravida was found 08 (8.0%) and multigravida was 92 (92.0%). In this study, 76 (76.0%) patients had spontaneous delivery, 05 (5.0%) patients had massive blood loss, and 10 (10.0%) patients required further massage. Conclusions: Carbetocin appears to be an effective new drug in the active management of third-stage labor (AMTSL). A single dose (100 mg) of IV carbetocin is more effective for maintaining adequate uterine tone

Assessing of Farmers' Opinion towards Floating Agriculture as a Means of Cleaner Production: A Case of Barisal District, Bangladesh

Aims: Bangladesh, as a low-lying country, is vulnerable to global climate change and affected by floods and water logging. Hence, the country needs to adopt sufficient adaptation strategies which are based on local people traditional knowledge and locally available materials; hence, floating agriculture is that type of agriculture. Through this article we examine the floating agriculture related farmers opinion towards floating agriculture as a means of cleaner production Study Design: A descriptive survey research design is followed for the study and interview schedule is the main data collection instrument of the research. Place and Duration of Study: The study area was Banaripara and Wazirpur Upazila of Barisal District of Bangladesh. Data was collected from the farmers who were involved with floating agriculture. Methodology: A total number of 385 farmers of the two Upazilas were the population and out of them 140 farmers were selected as the sample of the study. The interview schedule was developed according to the objective of the research. We used five points Likert scale to judge the opinion towards floating agriculture. We administered multiple regression analysis using SPSS for finding out the influence of farmers’ socio-demographic characteristics on their opinion towards floating agriculture as a means of cleaner production. Results: The farmers of the study area had moderately to less a favorable opinion (83%) towards floating agriculture as a means of cleaner production. Three of the characteristics of the farmers (eg. their age, family size and training participation on floating agriculture) had an influence on their opinion according to the regression results. Therefore, the higher the listed three characteristics according to the regression result the higher will be the opinion of the farmers towards floating agriculture. Conclusion: These findings suggest that it is important to explore knowledge and arrange training for the farmers on floating bed preparation, selecting suitable crops, the intercultural operation of crops and so on. Moreover, future research should be carried out on floating agriculture’s role as a means of women and unemployed employment opportunity, community development, and identify challenges of this technique