Predictability in an unpredictable artificial cultural market

In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets such as films, songs and books, well-informed experts routinely make predictions which turn out to be incorrect. We examine the extent to which the existence of social influence may, somewhat paradoxically, increase the extent to which winners can be identified at a very early stage in the process. Once the process of choice has begun, only a very small number of decisions may be necessary to give a reasonable prospect of being able to identify the eventual winner. We illustrate this by an analysis of the music download experiments of Salganik et.al. (2006). We derive a rule for early identification of the eventual winner. Although not perfect, it gives considerable practical success. We validate the rule by applying it to similar data not used in the process of constructing the rule

Recombinant human activated protein C in the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome

Rationale: Pulmonary coagulopathy may play a pathogenetic role in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), by contributing to alveolocapillary inflammation and increased permeability. Recombinant human activated protein C (rh-APC) may inhibit this process and thereby improve patient outcome. Methods: A prospective randomized, saline-controlled, single-blinded clinical trial was performed in the intensive care units of two university hospitals, and patients with ARDS were included within 24 h after meeting inclusion criteria. Intervention: A 4-day course of intravenous rh-APC (24 mcg/kg/h) (n = 33) versus saline (n = 38). Outcomes: The primary outcome parameter was the pulmonary leak index (PLI) of 67Gallium-transferrin as a measure of alveolocapillary permeability and secondary outcomes were disease severity scores and ventilator-free days, among others. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar; in 87% of patients the PLI was above normal and in 90% mechanical or noninvasive ventilation was instituted at a median lung injury score of 2.5. There was no evidence that Rh-APC treatment affected the PLI or attenuated lung injury and sequential organ failure assessment scores. Mean ventilator-free days amounted to 14 (rh-APC) and 12 days (saline, P = 0.35). 28-day mortality was 6% in rh-APC- and 18% in saline-treated patients (P = 0.12). There was no difference in bleeding events. The study was prematurely discontinued because rh-APC was withdrawn from the market. Conclusion: There is no evidence that treatment with intravenous rh-APC during 4 days for infectious or inflammatory ARDS ameliorates increased alveolocapillary permeability or the clinical course of ARDS patients. We cannot exclude underpowering. Trial Registration: Nederlands Trial Registe

Spin-Peierls transition in NaV2O5 in high magnetic fields

We investigate the magnetic field dependence of the spin-Peierls transition in NaV$_2$O$_5$ in the field range 16T-30T. The transition temperature exhibits a very weak variation with the field, suggesting a novel mechanism for the formation of the spin-Peierls state. We argue that a charge ordering transition accompanied by singlet formation is consistent with our observations.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, final version to appear in Phys. Rev. B (RC

Probabilistic model checking multi-agent behaviors in dispersion games using counter abstraction

Accurate analysis of the stochastic dynamics of multi-agent system is important but challenging. Probabilistic model checking, a formal technique for analysing a system which exhibits stochastic behaviors, can be a natural solution to analyse multi-agent systems. In this paper, we investigate this problem in the context of dispersion games focusing on two strategies: basic simple strategy (BSS) and extended simple strategies (ESS). We model the system using discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) and reduce the state space of the models by applying counter abstraction technique. Two important properties of the system are considered: convergence and convergence rate. We show that these kinds of properties can be automatically analysed and verified using probabilistic model checking techniques. Better understanding of the dynamics of the strategies can be obtained compared with empirical evaluations in previous work. Through the analysis, we are able to demonstrate that probabilistic model checking technique is applicable, and indeed useful for automatic analysis and verification of multi-agent dynamics.No Full Tex

Human plasma phospholipid transfer protein increases the antiatherogenic potential of high density lipoproteins in transgenic mice

Plasma phospholipid transfer protein (PLTP) transfers phospholipids between lipoprotein particles and alters high density lipoprotein (HDL) subfraction patterns in vitro, but its physiological function is poorly understood. Transgenic mice that overexpress human PLTP were generated. Compared with wild-type mice, these mice show a 2.5- to 4.5-fold increase in PLTP activity in plasma. This results in a 30% to 40% decrease of plasma levels of HDL cholesterol. Incubation of plasma from transgenic animals at 37 degrees C reveals a 2- to 3-fold increase in the formation of pre-beta-HDL compared with plasma from wild-type mice. Although pre-beta-HDL is normally a minor subfraction of HDL, it is known to be a very efficient acceptor of peripheral cell cholesterol and a key mediator in reverse cholesterol transport. Further experiments show that plasma from transgenic animals is much more efficient in preventing the accumulation of intracellular cholesterol in macrophages than plasma from wild-type mice, despite lower total HDL concentrations. It is concluded that PLTP can act as an antiatherogenic factor preventing cellular cholesterol overload by generation of pre-beta-HDL

RPGR-associated dystrophies: Clinical, genetic, and histopathological features

This study describes the clinical, genetic, and histopathological features in patients with RPGR-associated retinal dystrophies. Nine male patients from eight unrelated families underwent a comprehensive ophthalmic examination. Additionally, the histopathology of the right eye from a patient with an end-stage cone-rod-dystrophy (CRD)/sector retinitis pigmentosa (RP) phenotype was examined. All RPGR mutations causing a CRD phenotype were situated in exon ORF15. The mean best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA, decimals) was 0.58 (standard deviation (SD)): 0.34; range: 0.05–1.13); and the mean spherical refractive error was −4.1 D (SD: 2.11; range: −1.38 to −8.19). Hyperautofluorescent rings were observed in six patients. Full-field electroretinography responses were absent in all patients. The visual field defects ranged from peripheral constriction to central islands. The mean macular sensitivity on microperimetry was 11.6 dB (SD: 7.8; range: 1.6–24.4) and correlated significantly with BCVA (r = 0.907; p = 0.001). A histological examination of the donor eye showed disruption of retinal topology and stratification, with a more severe loss found in the peripheral regions. Reactive gliosis was seen in the inner layers of all regions. Our study demonstrates the highly variable phenotype found in RPGR-associated retinal dystrophies. Therapies should be applied at the earliest signs of photoreceptor degeneration, prior to the remodeling of the inner retina

Evaluation studies of a sensing technique for electrostatic charge polarity of pharmaceutical particulates

Electrostatic charge due to inter-particle and particle-wall contacts may generate significant hazards during the processing of particulates within the pharmaceutical industry. Although charge behaviour of particulates is erratic and not easy to predict, it would be desirable to characterise the tendency of tribocharging prior to manufacturing. The work reported in this paper concentrates on a new and novel techniques for the detection of the active ingredient and excipient in a bipolar material. Three different case studies are presented for demonstration of the applicability of the method in different practical situations. Work confirmed through an experimental rig set-up indicates that materials that accumulate opposite charge via contact and rubbing can be detected from their charge sign as well as their relative magnitude. The results reported clearly demonstrated that the developed method for charge characterisation is a useful tool to understand how the charges are distributed in a population of particles showing a number of advantages over conventional methods

ER stress transcription factor Xbp1 suppresses intestinal tumorigenesis and directs intestinal stem cells

Unresolved endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress in the epithelium can provoke intestinal inflammation. Hypomorphic variants of ER stress response mediators, such as X-box–binding protein 1 (XBP1), confer genetic risk for inflammatory bowel disease. We report here that hypomorphic Xbp1 function instructs a multilayered regenerative response in the intestinal epithelium. This is characterized by intestinal stem cell (ISC) expansion as shown by an inositol-requiring enzyme 1α (Ire1α)–mediated increase in Lgr5+ and Olfm4+ ISCs and a Stat3-dependent increase in the proliferative output of transit-amplifying cells. These consequences of hypomorphic Xbp1 function are associated with an increased propensity to develop colitis-associated and spontaneous adenomatous polyposis coli (APC)–related tumors of the intestinal epithelium, which in the latter case is shown to be dependent on Ire1α. This study reveals an unexpected role for Xbp1 in suppressing tumor formation through restraint of a pathway that involves an Ire1α- and Stat3-mediated regenerative response of the epithelium as a consequence of ER stress. As such, Xbp1 in the intestinal epithelium not only regulates local inflammation but at the same time also determines the propensity of the epithelium to develop tumors

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Azimuthal anisotropy at RHIC: the first and fourth harmonics

We report the first observations of the first harmonic (directed flow, v_1), and the fourth harmonic (v_4), in the azimuthal distribution of particles with respect to the reaction plane in Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Both measurements were done taking advantage of the large elliptic flow (v_2) generated at RHIC. From the correlation of v_2 with v_1 it is determined that v_2 is positive, or {\it in-plane}. The integrated v_4 is about a factor of 10 smaller than v_2. For the sixth (v_6) and eighth (v_8) harmonics upper limits on the magnitudes are reported.Comment: 6 pages with 3 figures, as accepted for Phys. Rev. Letters The data tables are at http://www.star.bnl.gov/central/publications/pubDetail.php?id=3