The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis

Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behavior of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, including the dominant role of portfolio investors and hedge funds in initiating and spreading the crisis; moral hazard; and, finally, the role of Japanese banks in spreading the trouble to countries in which they were the largest source of funds. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, contrary to common expectations banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong form should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is time to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode.

The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis

Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behavior of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, including the dominant role of portfolio investors and hedge funds in initiating and spreading the crisis; moral hazard; and, finally, the role of Japanese banks in spreading the trouble to countries in which they were the largest source of funds. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, contrary to common expectations banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong form should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is time to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode

In-pile loop irradiation studies of organic coolant materials : progress report, October 1, 1963 - December 31, 1964,

Statement of responsibility on title page reads: Report prepared by: E. A. Mason, Project Supervisor; Contributors: W.N. Bley, J.C. Kim, T.H. Timmins, J.F. Terrien, A.H. Swan"Issued: February 1, 1965.""AEC Research and Development Report"--Cover"MIT-334-12."Includes bibliographical references (leaves 21-22)Progress report; October 1, 1963 - December 31, 1964M.I.T. Project no. DSR 9819U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Savannah River Operations Office contract no. AT(38-1)-33

Friction factor and heat transfer correlation for irradiated organic coolants

"September 1965."Series statement handwritten on cover"MIT-334-23 Chemistry."Also written as an M.S. theses written by the first author and advised by the second author, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 1966Includes bibliographical references (pages 163-165)M.I.T. DSR Project no. 9819Work performed for the Savannah River Operations Office, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission under contract no. AT(38-1)-33

The Relationship Between HR Practices and Firm Performance: Examining Causal Order

Significant research attention has been devoted to examining the relationship between HR practices and firm performance, and the research support has assumed HR as the causal variable. Using data from 45 business units (with 62 data points), this study examines how measures of HR practices correlate with past, concurrent, and future operational performance measures. The results indicate that correlations with performance measures at all three times are both high and invariant, and that controlling for past or concurrent performance virtually eliminates the correlation of HR with future performance. Implications are discussed

Expression of Distal-less, dachshund, and optomotor blind in Neanthes arenaceodentata (Annelida, Nereididae) does not support homology of appendage-forming mechanisms across the Bilateria

The similarity in the genetic regulation of arthropod and vertebrate appendage formation has been interpreted as the product of a plesiomorphic gene network that was primitively involved in bilaterian appendage development and co-opted to build appendages (in modern phyla) that are not historically related as structures. Data from lophotrochozoans are needed to clarify the pervasiveness of plesiomorphic appendage forming mechanisms. We assayed the expression of three arthropod and vertebrate limb gene orthologs, Distal-less (Dll), dachshund (dac), and optomotor blind (omb), in direct-developing juveniles of the polychaete Neanthes arenaceodentata. Parapodial Dll expression marks premorphogenetic notopodia and neuropodia, becoming restricted to the bases of notopodial cirri and to ventral portions of neuropodia. In outgrowing cephalic appendages, Dll activity is primarily restricted to proximal domains. Dll expression is also prominent in the brain. dac expression occurs in the brain, nerve cord ganglia, a pair of pharyngeal ganglia, presumed interneurons linking a pair of segmental nerves, and in newly differentiating mesoderm. Domains of omb expression include the brain, nerve cord ganglia, one pair of anterior cirri, presumed precursors of dorsal musculature, and the same pharyngeal ganglia and presumed interneurons that express dac. Contrary to their roles in outgrowing arthropod and vertebrate appendages, Dll, dac, and omb lack comparable expression in Neanthes appendages, implying independent evolution of annelid appendage development. We infer that parapodia and arthropodia are not structurally or mechanistically homologous (but their primordia might be), that Dll’s ancestral bilaterian function was in sensory and central nervous system differentiation, and that locomotory appendages possibly evolved from sensory outgrowths

Global Development and Climate Change: A Game Theory Approach

The increasing concern with climate change is one of the main issues of our time, and thus we aim to theoretically and mathematically analyse its causes. However our approach follows a different stream of thought, presenting the reasoning and decision-making processes between technical and moral solutions. We have resorted to game theory models in order to demonstrate cooperative and non-cooperative scenarios, ranging from the traditional to the evolutionary within game theory. In doing so we are able to glimpse the development of modern society and a paradigm shift regarding human control over nature and to what extent it is harmful to the sustainability of our environment and the survival of future generations. Merging different fields of knowledge, we present a theoretical-philosophical approach, combined with empirical-mathematical solutions taking into account the agent-based behaviour guided blindly by instrumental rationality

Acupuncture, Counseling, and Usual care for Depression (ACUDep): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: The evidence on the effect of acupuncture or counseling for depression is not conclusive yet is sufficient to warrant further research. Our aim is to conduct a full-scale RCT to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of acupuncture and counseling compared to usual care alone. We will explore the experiences and perspectives of patients and practitioners. Methods/Design: Randomized controlled trial with three parallel arms: acupuncture plus usual care, counseling plus usual care, and usual care alone, in conjunction with a nested qualitative study using in-depth interviews with purposive samples of trial participants. Participants: Patients aged over 18 years diagnosed with depression or mood disorder by their GP and with a score of 20 or above on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II). Randomization: Computer randomization by York Trials Unit to acupuncture, counseling, and usual care alone in proportions of 2:2:1, respectively, with secure allocation concealment. Interventions: Patients allocated to acupuncture and counseling groups receive the offer of up to 12 weekly sessions. Both interventions allow flexibility to address patient variation, yet are constrained within defined protocols. Acupuncture is based on traditional Chinese medicine and counseling is non-directive within the humanistic tradition. Outcome: The PHQ-9 is the primary outcome measure, collected at baseline, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Also measured is BDI-II, SF-36 Bodily pain subscale, and EQ-5D. Texted mood scores are collected weekly over the first 15 weeks. Health-related resource use is collected over 12 months. Analysis: The sample size target was for 640 participants, calculated for an effect size of 0.32 on the PHQ-9 when comparing acupuncture with counseling given 90% power, 5% significance, and 20% loss to follow-up. Analysis of covariance will be used on an intention-to-treat basis. Thematic analysis will be used for qualitative data. We will compare incremental cost-effectiveness of the three treatment options at 12 months. Discussion: Ethical approval was obtained in October 2009. There were six subsequent protocol amendments, the last of which was approved in January 2012. Recruitment of 755 participants took place over 18 months. Data collection will be completed by June 2012. No interim analyses have been conducted