Nonresponse and Focal Point Answers to Subjective Probability Questions

We develop and estimate a panel data model explaining the answers to questions about subjective probabilities, using data from the US Health and Retirement Study. We explicitly account for nonresponse, rounding, and focal point “50 percent” answers. Our results indicate that for three of the four questions considered, almost all 50 percent answers can be explained by rounding. We also find observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the tendencies to report rounded values or a focal answer, explaining persistency in 50 percent-answers over time. Incorporating rounding and focal answers changes some of the conclusions about the socio-economic factors that determine expectations.item nonresponse, rounding, expectations

Optimizing the Distribution of Leg Muscles for Vertical Jumping.

A goal of biomechanics and motor control is to understand the design of the human musculoskeletal system. Here we investigated human functional morphology by making predictions about the muscle volume distribution that is optimal for a specific motor task. We examined a well-studied and relatively simple human movement, vertical jumping. We investigated how high a human could jump if muscle volume were optimized for jumping, and determined how the optimal parameters improve performance. We used a four-link inverted pendulum model of human vertical jumping actuated by Hill-type muscles, that well-approximates skilled human performance. We optimized muscle volume by allowing the cross-sectional area and muscle fiber optimum length to be changed for each muscle, while maintaining constant total muscle volume. We observed, perhaps surprisingly, that the reference model, based on human anthropometric data, is relatively good for vertical jumping; it achieves 90% of the jump height predicted by a model with muscles designed specifically for jumping. Alteration of cross-sectional areas-which determine the maximum force deliverable by the muscles-constitutes the majority of improvement to jump height. The optimal distribution results in large vastus, gastrocnemius and hamstrings muscles that deliver more work, while producing a kinematic pattern essentially identical to the reference model. Work output is increased by removing muscle from rectus femoris, which cannot do work on the skeleton given its moment arm at the hip and the joint excursions during push-off. The gluteus composes a disproportionate amount of muscle volume and jump height is improved by moving it to other muscles. This approach represents a way to test hypotheses about optimal human functional morphology. Future studies may extend this approach to address other morphological questions in ethological tasks such as locomotion, and feature other sets of parameters such as properties of the skeletal segments

Conclusions on motor control depend on the type of model used to represent the periphery

Within the field of motor control, there is no consensus on which kinematic and kinetic aspects of movements are planned or controlled. Perturbing goal-directed movements is a frequently used tool to answer this question. To be able to draw conclusions about motor control from kinematic responses to perturbations, a model of the periphery (i.e., the skeleton, muscle-tendon complexes, and spinal reflex circuitry) is required. The purpose of the present study was to determine to what extent such conclusions depend on the level of simplification with which the dynamical properties of the periphery are modeled. For this purpose, we simulated fast goal-directed single-joint movement with four existing types of models. We tested how three types of perturbations affected movement trajectory if motor commands remained unchanged. We found that the four types of models of the periphery showed different robustness to the perturbations, leading to different predictions on how accurate motor commands need to be, i.e., how accurate the knowledge of external conditions needs to be. This means that when interpreting kinematic responses obtained in perturbation experiments the level of error correction attributed to adaptation of motor commands depends on the type of model used to describe the periphery

Peer Reporting and the Perception of Fairness

Economic motives are not the only reasons for committing a (small) crime. People consider social norms and perceptions of fairness before judging a situation and acting upon it. If someone takes a bundle of printing paper from the office for private use at home, then a colleague who sees this can take action by talking to the offender or someone else (peer reporting). We investigate how fairness perception influences the decision to act upon incorrect behavior or not

Control of position and movement is simplified by combined muscle spindle and Golgi tendon organ feedback

Whereas muscle spindles play a prominent role in current theories of human motor control, Golgi tendon organs (GTO) and their associated tendons are often neglected. This is surprising since there is ample evidence that both tendons and GTOs contribute importantly to neuromusculoskeletal dynamics. Using detailed musculoskeletal models, we provide evidence that simple feedback using muscle spindles alone results in very poor control of joint position and movement since muscle spindles cannot sense changes in tendon length that occur with changes in muscle force. We propose that a combination of spindle and GTO afferents can provide an estimate of muscle-tendon complex length, which can be effectively used for low-level feedback during both postural and movement tasks. The feasibility of the proposed scheme was tested using detailed musculoskeletal models of the human arm. Responses to transient and static perturbations were simulated using a 1-degree-of-freedom (DOF) model of the arm and showed that the combined feedback enabled the system to respond faster, reach steady state faster, and achieve smaller static position errors. Finally, we incorporated the proposed scheme in an optimally controlled 2-DOF model of the arm for fast point-to-point shoulder and elbow movements. Simulations showed that the proposed feedback could be easily incorporated in the optimal control framework without complicating the computation of the optimal control solution, yet greatly enhancing the system's response to perturbations. The theoretical analyses in this study might furthermore provide insight about the strong physiological couplings found between muscle spindle and GTO afferents in the human nervous system. © 2013 the American Physiological Society

Do we use a priori knowledge of gravity when making elbow rotations?

In this study, we aim to investigate whether motor commands, emanating from movement planning, are customized to movement orientation relative to gravity from the first trial on. Participants made fast point-to-point elbow flexions and extensions in the transverse plane. We compared movements that had been practiced in reclined orientation either against or with gravity with the same movement relative to the body axis made in the upright orientation (neutral compared to gravity). For each movement type, five rotations from reclined to upright orientation were made. For each rotation, we analyzed the first trial in upright orientation and the directly preceding trial in reclined orientation. Additionally, we analyzed the last five trials of a 30-trial block in upright position and compared these trials with the first trials in upright orientation. Although participants moved fast, gravitational torques were substantial. The change in body orientation affected movement planning: we found a decrease in peak angular velocity and a decrease in amplitude for the first trials made in the upright orientation, regardless of whether the previous movements in reclined orientation were made against or with gravity. We found that these decreases disappeared after participants familiarized themselves with moving in upright position in a 30-trial block. These results indicate that participants used a general strategy, corresponding to the strategy observed in situations with unreliable or limited information on external conditions. From this, we conclude that during movement planning, a priori knowledge of gravity was not used to specifically customize motor commands for the neutral gravity condition

Distributed learning on 20 000+ lung cancer patients - The Personal Health Train

Background and purpose Access to healthcare data is indispensable for scientific progress and innovation. Sharing healthcare data is time-consuming and notoriously difficult due to privacy and regulatory concerns. The Personal Health Train (PHT) provides a privacy-by-design infrastructure connecting FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) data sources and allows distributed data analysis and machine learning. Patient data never leaves a healthcare institute. Materials and methods Lung cancer patient-specific databases (tumor staging and post-treatment survival information) of oncology departments were translated according to a FAIR data model and stored locally in a graph database. Software was installed locally to enable deployment of distributed machine learning algorithms via a central server. Algorithms (MATLAB, code and documentation publicly available) are patient privacy-preserving as only summary statistics and regression coefficients are exchanged with the central server. A logistic regression model to predict post-treatment two-year survival was trained and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), root mean square prediction error (RMSE) and calibration plots. Results In 4 months, we connected databases with 23 203 patient cases across 8 healthcare institutes in 5 countries (Amsterdam, Cardiff, Maastricht, Manchester, Nijmegen, Rome, Rotterdam, Shanghai) using the PHT. Summary statistics were computed across databases. A distributed logistic regression model predicting post-treatment two-year survival was trained on 14 810 patients treated between 1978 and 2011 and validated on 8 393 patients treated between 2012 and 2015. Conclusion The PHT infrastructure demonstrably overcomes patient privacy barriers to healthcare data sharing and enables fast data analyses across multiple institutes from different countries with different regulatory regimens. This infrastructure promotes global evidence-based medicine while prioritizing patient privacy