Dynamics of petroleum industry investment in the North Sea

Originally presented as the author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of ManagementThis investigation has attempted to provide acurrent estimate of the oil potential of the northern North Sea from which estimates of exploration investment, development investment, and accruing cash-flows can be derived. Current proven reserves are estimated at 29.4 billion barrels oil equivalent, of which 22.6 billion barrels are oil. Of the 59 discoveries documented, 8 can be classed as true gas accumulations. Undiscovered potential for the area of study is estimated at 24.3 billion barrels, giving a most probable ultimate recoverable reserve of 53.7 billion barrels oil equivalent. Depending on minimum commercial field size, recoverable oil reserves should vary between 33.7 and 39.2 billion barrels. Current development of 14.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil involves an estimated capital investment of $16.8 billion dollars. Peak daily production is estimated to occur in 1981 at 4.12 million barrels daily. An additional 4.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil is in various stages of evaluation and will probably be developed, yielding a total of 19.4 billion barrels of reserves and a total peak production of 4.95 million barrels per day in 1981. Capital investment is estimated at$27 billion dollars for the total. In order to develop current plus discovered plus future discoveries, private industry is estimated to require between $56 and$70 billion dollars. Most of this investment, including approximately $6 billion additional outlay for exploration, is anticipated to occur between now and 1985. Peak production of 6.58 to 7.85 million barrels per day is estimated to occur around 1986, representing a total reserve development of approximately 34.4 to 38.4 billion barrels of oil. Private industry is anticipated to earn between$30 and $56 billion dollars whereas government take, assuming a lower discount rate, is estimated to run between$83 and $222 billion dollars. Critical to this analysis are assumptions about host-government tax policy and the world price of crude oil, especially as pertaining to "marginal" North Sea fields. Utilizing an econometric model developed by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project, investigation of discounted cash-flow profiles for various field sizes indicates that access to crude supply and development of subsequent discoveries appear to be the primary economic incentives for continuing to operate smaller fields after peak production is obtained. Tax policy and high operating costs relative to productive capacity tend to make small fields less attractive investments. Finally, it is patently obvious that very high per-well productivity is essential for viable development of North Sea fields under current economic, political, fiscal, and technical constraints

An assessment of the screening method to evaluate vaccine effectiveness: the case of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the United States.

The screening method, which employs readily available data, is an inexpensive and quick means of estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE). We compared estimates of effectiveness of heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) using the screening and case-control methods. Cases were children aged 19-35 months with pneumococcus isolated from normally sterile sites residing in Active Bacterial Core surveillance areas in the United States. Case-control VE was estimated for 2001-2004 by comparing the odds of vaccination among cases and community controls. Screening-method VE for 2001-2009 was estimated by comparing the proportion of cases vaccinated to National Immunization Survey-derived coverage among the general population. To evaluate the plausibility of screening-method VE findings, we estimated attack rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. We identified 1,154 children with IPD. Annual population PCV7 coverage with ≥1 dose increased from 38% to 97%. Case-control VE for ≥1 dose was estimated as 75% against all-serotype IPD (annual range: 35-83%) and 91% for PCV7-type IPD (annual range: 65-100%). By the screening method, the overall VE was 86% for ≥1 dose (annual range: -240-70%) against all-serotype IPD and 94% (annual range: 62-97%) against PCV7-type IPD. As cases of PCV7-type IPD declined during 2001-2005, estimated attack rates for all-serotype IPD among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals became less consistent than what would be expected with the estimated effectiveness of PCV7. The screening method yields estimates of VE that are highly dependent on the time period during which it is used and the choice of outcome. The method should be used cautiously to evaluate VE of PCVs

Invasive Group A Streptococcal Infection in Older Adults in Long-term Care Facilities and the Community, United States, 1998–20031

Invasive infection develops almost 6 times as frequently in the elderly in long-term care facilities

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Two-Season ACTPol Lensing Power Spectrum

We report a measurement of the power spectrum of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing from two seasons of Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter (ACTPol) CMB data. The CMB lensing power spectrum is extracted from both temperature and polarization data using quadratic estimators. We obtain results that are consistent with the expectation from the best-fit Planck LCDM model over a range of multipoles L=80-2100, with an amplitude of lensing A_lens = 1.06 +/- 0.15 (stat.) +/- 0.06 (sys.) relative to Planck. Our measurement of the CMB lensing power spectrum gives sigma_8 Omega_m^0.25 = 0.643 +/- 0.054; including baryon acoustic oscillation scale data, we constrain the amplitude of density fluctuations to be sigma_8 = 0.831 +/- 0.053. We also update constraints on the neutrino mass sum. We verify our lensing measurement with a number of null tests and systematic checks, finding no evidence of significant systematic errors. This measurement relies on a small fraction of the ACTPol data already taken; more precise lensing results can therefore be expected from the full ACTPol dataset.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, to be submitted to Physical Review

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Two-Season ACTPol Spectra and Parameters

We present the temperature and polarization angular power spectra measured by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter (ACTPol). We analyze night-time data collected during 2013-14 using two detector arrays at 149 GHz, from 548 deg$^2$ of sky on the celestial equator. We use these spectra, and the spectra measured with the MBAC camera on ACT from 2008-10, in combination with Planck and WMAP data to estimate cosmological parameters from the temperature, polarization, and temperature-polarization cross-correlations. We find the new ACTPol data to be consistent with the LCDM model. The ACTPol temperature-polarization cross-spectrum now provides stronger constraints on multiple parameters than the ACTPol temperature spectrum, including the baryon density, the acoustic peak angular scale, and the derived Hubble constant. Adding the new data to planck temperature data tightens the limits on damping tail parameters, for example reducing the joint uncertainty on the number of neutrino species and the primordial helium fraction by 20%.Comment: 23 pages, 25 figure

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Mitigating the impact of extragalactic foregrounds for the DR6 CMB lensing analysis

We investigate the impact and mitigation of extragalactic foregrounds for the CMB lensing power spectrum analysis of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data release 6 (DR6) data. Two independent microwave sky simulations are used to test a range of mitigation strategies. We demonstrate that finding and then subtracting point sources, finding and then subtracting models of clusters, and using a profile bias-hardened lensing estimator, together reduce the fractional biases to well below statistical uncertainties, with the inferred lensing amplitude, $A_{\mathrm{lens}}$, biased by less than $0.2\sigma$. We also show that another method where a model for the cosmic infrared background (CIB) contribution is deprojected and high frequency data from Planck is included has similar performance. Other frequency-cleaned options do not perform as well, incurring either a large noise cost, or resulting in biased recovery of the lensing spectrum. In addition to these simulation-based tests, we also present null tests performed on the ACT DR6 data which test for sensitivity of our lensing spectrum estimation to differences in foreground levels between the two ACT frequencies used, while nulling the CMB lensing signal. These tests pass whether the nulling is performed at the map or bandpower level. The CIB-deprojected measurement performed on the DR6 data is consistent with our baseline measurement, implying contamination from the CIB is unlikely to significantly bias the DR6 lensing spectrum. This collection of tests gives confidence that the ACT DR6 lensing measurements and cosmological constraints presented in companion papers to this work are robust to extragalactic foregrounds.Comment: Companion paper to Qu et al and Madhavacheril et a

Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Weighing Distant Clusters with the Most Ancient Light

We use gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) to measure the mass of the most distant blindly selected sample of galaxy clusters on which a lensing measurement has been performed to date. In CMB data from the the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the Planck satellite, we detect the stacked lensing effect from 677 near-infrared-selected galaxy clusters from the Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey (MaDCoWS), which have a mean redshift of ⟨z⟩ = 1.08. There are currently no representative optical weak lensing measurements of clusters that match the distance and average mass of this sample. We detect the lensing signal with a significance of 4.2σ. We model the signal with a halo model framework to find the mean mass of the population from which these clusters are drawn. Assuming that the clusters follow Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) density profiles, we infer a mean mass of ⟨M_(500c)⟩ = (1.7±0.4)×10¹⁴M⊙. We consider systematic uncertainties from cluster redshift errors, centering errors, and the shape of the NFW profile. These are all smaller than 30% of our reported uncertainty. This work highlights the potential of CMB lensing to enable cosmological constraints from the abundance of distant clusters populating ever larger volumes of the observable universe, beyond the capabilities of optical weak lensing measurements

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: CMB Polarization at 200<ℓ<9000200<\ell<9000

We report on measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and celestial polarization at 146 GHz made with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter (ACTPol) in its first three months of observing. Four regions of sky covering a total of 270 square degrees were mapped with an angular resolution of $1.3'$. The map noise levels in the four regions are between 11 and 17 $\mu$K-arcmin. We present TT, TE, EE, TB, EB, and BB power spectra from three of these regions. The observed E-mode polarization power spectrum, displaying six acoustic peaks in the range $200<\ell<3000$, is an excellent fit to the prediction of the best-fit cosmological models from WMAP9+ACT and Planck data. The polarization power spectrum, which mainly reflects primordial plasma velocity perturbations, provides an independent determination of cosmological parameters consistent with those based on the temperature power spectrum, which results mostly from primordial density perturbations. We find that without masking any point sources in the EE data at $\ell<9000$, the Poisson tail of the EE power spectrum due to polarized point sources has an amplitude less than $2.4$ $\mu$K$^2$ at $\ell = 3000$ at 95\% confidence. Finally, we report that the Crab Nebula, an important polarization calibration source at microwave frequencies, has 8.7\% polarization with an angle of $150.7^\circ \pm 0.6^\circ$ when smoothed with a $5'$ Gaussian beam.Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, 5 table

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the DR6 CMB Lensing Power Spectrum and its Implications for Structure Growth

We present new measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing over $9400$ sq. deg. of the sky. These lensing measurements are derived from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) CMB dataset, which consists of five seasons of ACT CMB temperature and polarization observations. We determine the amplitude of the CMB lensing power spectrum at $2.3\%$ precision ($43\sigma$ significance) using a novel pipeline that minimizes sensitivity to foregrounds and to noise properties. To ensure our results are robust, we analyze an extensive set of null tests, consistency tests, and systematic error estimates and employ a blinded analysis framework. The baseline spectrum is well fit by a lensing amplitude of $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.013\pm0.023$ relative to the Planck 2018 CMB power spectra best-fit $\Lambda$CDM model and $A_{\mathrm{lens}}=1.005\pm0.023$ relative to the $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ best-fit model. From our lensing power spectrum measurement, we derive constraints on the parameter combination $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8 \equiv \sigma_8 \left({\Omega_m}/{0.3}\right)^{0.25}$ of $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.818\pm0.022$ from ACT DR6 CMB lensing alone and $S^{\mathrm{CMBL}}_8= 0.813\pm0.018$ when combining ACT DR6 and Planck NPIPE CMB lensing power spectra. These results are in excellent agreement with $\Lambda$CDM model constraints from Planck or $\text{ACT DR4} + \text{WMAP}$ CMB power spectrum measurements. Our lensing measurements from redshifts $z\sim0.5$--$5$ are thus fully consistent with $\Lambda$CDM structure growth predictions based on CMB anisotropies probing primarily $z\sim1100$. We find no evidence for a suppression of the amplitude of cosmic structure at low redshiftsComment: 45+21 pages, 50 figures. Prepared for submission to ApJ. Also see companion papers Madhavacheril et al and MacCrann et a