Government fragmentation and fiscal deficits: a regression discontinuity approach

Some electoral systems favor strong single-party majority governments, while others the formation of coalitions. Having one or the other is likely to afect economic outcomes in ways that are unintended when the electoral rules are approved. In this paper, we show that government fragmentation has large fscal implications. We also provide results that have a causal interpretation. Using a panel of Spanish municipalities, along with a close-elections regression discontinuity design, we fnd that single-party majorities run budgets with a 1.5% point larger primary surplus than that of coalitions. In addition, we show that lower defcits are driven mainly by single-party majority governments’ capacity to raise more revenues. These fndings are robust to several model specifcations

Experimental evidence on the effect of grading incentives on student learning in Spain

In this article, the authors aim to identify the causal effect of the use of graded problem sets on academic performance of Spanish students. The identification strategy relies on an experiment in which the authors exploit variation arising from observing the performance of nearly 300 students taking the same class during the same semester and with the same instructors. Academic performance is measured through a multiple choice final exam in which some questions are related to graded problem sets and others are related to non-graded problem sets given through the semester. After accounting for potential biases and selection concerns, the results show that graded problem sets increase test scores by eight percentage points, or close to a letter grade

Tax reforms and Google searches: the case of Spanish VAT reforms during the great recession

We propose a method to capture the efect of tax reforms on consumer’s readiness to buy using Google searches as a proxy. We use the Spanish 2010 and 2012 VAT reforms as a case of study. We use a regression discontinuity design taking advantage of the fact that the Spanish 2010 and 2012 VAT reforms had a sharp implementation date, which implies that from one day to another the tax rate for most goods was diferent, while other factors likely to infuence consumer behaviour were similar on the days around the cut-of. We fnd a signifcant causal efect of the implementation of the reform on Google searches of durable goods, while we do not fnd any efect for non-durable goods. These results are in line with previous theoretical and empirical evidence according to which tax reforms cause consumers to modify more their readiness to buy durable goods. We also explore the efect of the reforms on readiness to buy specifc goods such as movie tickets by taking advantage of a control group formed by similar leisure items that were unafected by the 2012 reform

Particle Filter Tracking of Complex Stochastic Systems Applied to In Silico Wavefront Propagation

Proceeding of 2018 Computing in Cardiology Conference (CinC), September 23-26, 2018, Maastricht, The NetherlandsA high dimensional tracking system based on the FithzHugh-Nagumo (FH-N) equations emulating the biological excitation and propagation dynamics of the action potential across cardiac cells is proposed. The modified FH-N model tracks the electric cardiac wavefronts on a tissue, emulating an approximated atrial fibrillation scenario. Bayesian tracking is achieved with two particle filter (PF) schemes: a sequential Auxiliary PF (APF) and a parallelized method, Independent APF (IAPF). The numerical results of the two examples, involving both estimation errors and running times, provide numerical evidence that support the theoretical findings.This work has been partly supported by MINECO/FEDER (ADVENTURE, id. TEC2015-69868-C2-1-R), and Comunidad de Madrid (project CASI-CAM-CM, id. S2013/ICE-2845).Publicad

Los efectos del desajuste educativo sobre el bienestar subjetivo

This paper analyzes the effects of educational mismatch on subjective wellbeing. We study whether a discrepancy exists between the aspirations associated with the level of education acquired by the individuals and the opportunities found in the labor market and, consequently, whether educational mismatch affects their overall levels of subjective wellbeing. Consistent with education generating certain aspirations, we find that educational mismatch has a sizable significant negative impact on life satisfaction for over-educated individuals while the effect is positive for under-educated individuals. We also study whether individuals showing educational mismatch are less satisfied than other workers being adequately educated, within a similar job, since this dissatisfaction could translate into lower performance and productivity. In this case we only find under-education to negatively affect life satisfaction levels

Do actions speak louder than words? Evidence on voter behavior from Madrid Rio Park

In this paper we estimate the electoral gains and the timing of the gains, from the promise to build and the subsequent construction of a large infrastructure project, Madrid Rio Park, which was promised in the 2003 Madrid Mayoral election. We use as a case study the construction of the Madrid Rio Park because its unique circumstances provide us with a quasi experiment that allows us to causally separate the prospective and retrospective behavior of voters regarding electoral pledges. We find that voters behave mostly retrospectively. The retrospective effects are sizable in magnitude: we find that after the Madrid Rio Park was completed voters rewarded the incumbent with an additional three percentage points. Unexpectedly, but interestingly, we find only weak evidence of prospective behavior: voters do not strongly react to the promise to build the infrastructure

Propuestas para un grado de excelencia en derecho en lengua inglesa con orientación comparativa internacional

Se trata de un proyecto de innovación docente interdepartamental promovido por profesores implicados en la enseñanza de asignaturas de Derecho en inglés en la Facultad de Derecho de la Universidad Complutense. Supone una reflexión en búsqueda de un posible modelo de excelencia académica para la enseñanza de un Grado de Excelencia en Derecho en lengua inglesa. Se propone la creación de un Grupo de Alto Rendimiento Académico como paso previo para la formación de un Grado Bilingüe con itinerario de especialización en Derecho comparado. Se señala algunas características que podría tener aquel modelo y sus distintas posibilidades

Política económica y mayorías parlamentarias

Esta Tesis pretende averiguar si las propuestas de los partidos políticos españoles en materia económica son racionales y consistentes con su ideología y en segundo lugar si se llevan a cabo una vez en el poder. Y relacionado con lo anterior, cómo afecta el hecho de formar un gobierno minoritario o un gobierno de mayoría absoluta a la capacidad de los partidos de llevar a cabo sus propuestas económicas. Para lograr esos objetivos se ha utilizado como método el estudio estadístico del contenido económico de los programas electorales. Se han seleccionado las promesas electorales de contenido económico de los programas electorales de los partidos españoles. Cada promesa se ha codificado en función de una serie de variables que permiten conocer el perfil ideológico de la promesa, los medios de actuación requeridos para su cumplimiento y si éste se produjo o no. Posteriormente se han aplicado diversas técnicas estadísticas complementarias para extraer la mayor información posible de la base de datos de promesas electorales. En concreto se han utilizado dos técnicas de análisis multivariante complementarias: el análisis de correspondencias múltiples y el análisis cluster. Estas técnicas permiten identificar los principales objetivos e instrumentos de política económica con que cuentan los partidos políticos españoles y evaluar el grado de eficacia en el logro de esos objetivos. La metodología seguida permite también contrastar diversas hipótesis de alcance general sobre el comportamiento de los partidos basadas en la racionalidad de su actuación, y en concreto en tres ámbitos relacionados: Teoría de Coaliciones Políticas, Teoría Espacial del Comportamiento Político y Teoría del Mandato Electoral