The potential risk induced by climate change in the context of mega-nourishments

Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Long-term and large-scale modeling of mega-nourishments

The Sand Engine, ZM (Zandmotor), is a hook-shaped mega-nourishment (21.5 millions m³) located on the Dutch coast with an alongshore length of 2.4 km and an offshore extension of 1 km. The mega-nourishment project was initiated as a coastal protection measure on decadal time scales to maintain the coastline under predicted sea level rise. It follows the philosophy of working in harmony with the forces of nature by taking advantage of the longshore transport as the main distributor of sand along the adjacent coast (Stive et al., 2013). In the present contribution we use the Q2Dmorfo model (van den Berg, et al., 2012) to predict the long-term dynamics of the ZM.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand wave generation: sensitivity to model and physical parameters

The instability mechanisms for self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand waves have been extensively explored by modeling. However, while the assumed bathymetric perturbation associated with the sand wave controls the feedback between morphology and waves, its effect on the instability onset has not been explored. In addition, no systematic investigation of the effect of the physical parameters has been done yet. Using a linear stability model, we investigate the effect of wave conditions, cross-shore profile, closure depth, and two perturbation shapes (P1: cross-shore bathymetric profile shift, and P2: bed level perturbation linearly decreasing offshore). For a P1 perturbation, no instability occurs below an absolute critical angle ¿c0˜ 40-50°. For a P2 perturbation, there is no absolute critical angle: sand waves can develop also for low-angle waves. In fact, the bathymetric perturbation shape plays a key role in low-angle wave instability: such instability only develops if the curvature of the depth contours offshore the breaking zone is larger than the shoreline one. This can occur for the P2 perturbation but not for P1. The analysis of bathymetric data suggests that both curvature configurations could exist in nature. For both perturbation types, large wave angle, small wave period, and large closure depth strongly favor instability. The cross-shore profile has almost no effect with a P1 perturbation, whereas large surf zone slope and gently sloping shoreface strongly enhance instability under low-angle waves for a P2 perturbation. Finally, predictive statistical models are set up to identify sites prone to exhibit either a critical angle close to ¿c0 or low-angle wave instability.Postprint (author's final draft

Modeling the long-term diffusion and feeding capability of a mega-nourishment

A morphodynamic model based on the wave-driven alongshore sediment transport, including cross-shore transport in a simplified way and neglecting tides, is presented and applied to the Zandniotor mega-nourishment on the Dutch Delfiand coast. The model is calibrated with the bathymetric data surveyed from January 2012 to March 2013 using measured offshore wave forcing. The calibrated model reproduces accurately the surveyed evolution of the shoreline and depth contours until March 2015. According to the long-term modeling using different wave climate scenarios based on historical data, for the next 30-yr period, the Zandmotor will display diffusive behavior, asymmetric feeding to the adjacent beaches, and slow Migration to the NE. Specifically, the Zandmotor amplitude will have decayed from 960 m to about 350 m with a scatter of only about 40 m associated to climate variability. The modeled coastline diffusivity during the 3-yr period is 0.0021 m(2)/s, close to the observed value of 0.0022 m(2)/s. In contrast, the coefficient of the classical one-line diffusion equation is 0.0052 m(2)/s. Thus, the lifetime prediction, here defined as the time needed to reduce the initial amplitude by a factor 5, would be 90 yr instead of the classical diffusivity prediction of 35 yr. The resulting asymmetric feeding to adjacent beaches prodtices 100 m seaward shift at the NE section and 80 m seaward shift at the SW section. Looking at the variability associated to the different wave climates, the migration rate and the slight shape asymmetry correlate with the wave power asymmetry (W vs N waves) while the coastline diffusivity correlates with the proportion of high-angle waves, suggesting that the Dutch coast is near the high-angle wave instability threshold.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Formation and destruction of shoreline sand waves: observations and modelling

Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Formation and destruction events of shoreline sand waves

Peer Reviewe

Formation and destruction events of shoreline sand waves

Peer Reviewe

Self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand wave generation: sensitivity to model and physical parameters

The instability mechanisms for self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand waves have been extensively explored by modeling. However, while the assumed bathymetric perturbation associated with the sand wave controls the feedback between morphology and waves, its effect on the instability onset has not been explored. In addition, no systematic investigation of the effect of the physical parameters has been done yet. Using a linear stability model, we investigate the effect of wave conditions, cross-shore profile, closure depth, and two perturbation shapes (P1: cross-shore bathymetric profile shift, and P2: bed level perturbation linearly decreasing offshore). For a P1 perturbation, no instability occurs below an absolute critical angle ¿c0˜ 40-50°. For a P2 perturbation, there is no absolute critical angle: sand waves can develop also for low-angle waves. In fact, the bathymetric perturbation shape plays a key role in low-angle wave instability: such instability only develops if the curvature of the depth contours offshore the breaking zone is larger than the shoreline one. This can occur for the P2 perturbation but not for P1. The analysis of bathymetric data suggests that both curvature configurations could exist in nature. For both perturbation types, large wave angle, small wave period, and large closure depth strongly favor instability. The cross-shore profile has almost no effect with a P1 perturbation, whereas large surf zone slope and gently sloping shoreface strongly enhance instability under low-angle waves for a P2 perturbation. Finally, predictive statistical models are set up to identify sites prone to exhibit either a critical angle close to ¿c0 or low-angle wave instability

Formation mechanisms for self-organized kilometer-scale shoreline sand waves

The feedbacks between morphology and waves through sediment transport are investigated as a source of kilometer-scale shoreline sand waves. In particular, the observed sand waves along Srd. Holmslands Tange, Denmark, are examined. We use a linear stability model based on the one-line approximation, linking the bathymetry to the perturbed shoreline. Previous models that consider the link by shifting the equilibrium profile and neglecting the curvature of the depth contours predict a positive feedback only if the offshore wave incidence angle (¿c) is above a threshold, ¿c¿42°. Considering curvilinear depth contours and using a linearly decaying perturbation in bed level, we find that ¿c can vary over the range 0–90° depending on the background bathymetric profile and the depth of closure, Dc. Associated to the perturbed wave refraction, there are two sources of instability: the alongshore gradients in wave angle, wave angle mechanism, and the alongshore gradients in wave energy induced by wave crest stretching, wave energy mechanism. The latter are usually destabilizing, but the former are destabilizing only for large enough Dc, steep foreshores, and gently sloping shorefaces. The critical angle comes out from the competition between both mechanisms, but when both are destabilizing, ¿c=0. In contrast with earlier studies, the model predicts instability for the Holmslands Tange coast so that the observed sand waves could have emerged from such instability. The key point is considering a larger Dc that is reasonably supported by both observations and wave climate, which brings the wave angle mechanism near the destabilizing threshold