Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States

To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. JEL Classification: C53, E31, E37, E51, E52, E62, P24Fiscal Policy, Inflation forecasting, information content of money, leading indicators, monetary policy, new EU member states

Real convergence in Central and Eastern European EU Member States: which role for exchange rate volatility?

This paper analyzes the relation between exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per capita output growth, the credit cycle, the stock of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member States. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2006, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth (for relatively less financially developed economies), higher stocks of FDI (for relatively more open economies), higher current account deficits, and a more volatile development of the credit to GDP ratio. JEL Classification: F3, F4, F5Catching-up, Convergence, credit, current account, EU, Exchange rate volatility, FDI, Growth

Inflation dynamics and dual inflation in accession countries: a 'New Keynesian' perspective

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the current EU-accession countries in central and eastern Europe, focusing particularly on the determinants of 'dual inflation', that is, diverging inflation rates for tradable and non-tradable goods. The paper draws on the recently published data for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of the Accession countries and, indeed, finds evidence of ' dual inflation' in these economies. To test empirically for underlying determinants, the paper borrows from the recently developed New Phillips curve literature. Overall, domestic factors have systematically a stronger impact upon non-tradable goods inflation whereas international factors have a stronger impact over tradable goods. Furthermore, the results point to the possibly very different effects of exchange rate regimes over tradable and non-tradable goods inflation. On the whole, the findings suggest that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not a prominent factor behind the current 'experience' of dual inflation in these countries. JEL Classification: E31, E58, F41, P24

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to analyse whether the reaction of output and prices to interest rate and exchange rate shocks has changed across time (1996-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings show that: (1) output appears more responsive to an interest rate shock at the beginning of our sample. Since 2000, absorbing this shock has become less costly in terms of output, notwithstanding some reversal since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The exchange rate shock also has a time-varying effect on output. From 1996 to 2000, output seems to decline, whereas for periods between 2000 and 2008 it has a positive significant effect. (2) Consumer prices appear more responsive to an interest rate shock during the first half of our sample, when Poland experienced high inflation. The impact of an exchange rate shock on prices seems to slightly decrease across time

Thoughts on the critics to the subject of feminism: epistemological debates for a feminist Anthropology

La irrupción del pensamiento feminista en antropología en los años setenta permitió la puesta en cuestión de los modelos teóricos desarrollados hasta el momento por la epistemología clásica. A su vez, a pesar de que el sujeto político Mujer había sido fundamental para la articulación del movimiento feminista, con la emergencia en la década de los ochenta de nuevos sujetos históricamente invisibilizados por los discursos feministas hegemónicos, se comenzó a debatir sobre la imposibilidad de pensar un sujeto Mujer coherente y cohesionado en base a una identidad u opresión común. El presente artículo tratará de reflexionar sobre las implicaciones de dicha crítica para la antropología feminista. Para ello se analizarán algunas de las propuestas epistemológicas implícitas en la crítica que al sujeto del feminismo elaboran las antropólogas poscoloniales. Postularé que será a través de un riguroso estudio de la acción colectiva como podremos llegar a reconstruir el juego político y la disputa de identidades para comprender mejor cómo se ha tratado de solventar la heterogeneidad del sujeto político Mujer(es) en la práctica, lo que supondrá un escenario estimulante para la práctica antropológica.Feminist thinking broke into anthropology during the 70s questioning the bases of the theoretical models developed by classic epistemology. At the same time, with the emergence of historically marginalized subjects during the 80s the subject of the feminism was questioned. The Woman as Subject had been of great importance for the articulation of the feminist movement, nevertheless, the possibility of a Woman as Subject coherent and unified under a common identity or oppression was discussed. The aim of this article is to think about the epistemological implications of that questioning for a feminist anthropology. To that aim some of the critics that postcolonial anthropologists have done on the subject of feminism will be analyzed. I will propose that through a rigorous analysis of the collective action we will be able to have a better understanding of the dispute of identities and the different positions in which women are located, thus opening a stimulating scenario for anthropological practice

Twist, izaki intermitenteak

Harkaitz Canok bere "Twist" izeneko obra honetan gure historia hurbilaren pasarte gordinak dituenez hizpide, berauek fikzioaren ispilutik nola eta zer baliatuz kontatzen dituen aztertzea da lan honen helburua, horretarako erabiltzen dituen baliabideak –garrantzitsu edo adierazgarrienak behintzat– teorikoki zein kritikoki aztertuz. Horri ekiteko, aurrez esan, nire helburua ez dela obraren azterketa narratibo bat egitea, baliabideen azterketa eta lan kritikoa uztartzea, baizik. Hortaz, postmodernismoaz arituko naiz lehenik, berari eskutik helduta iristen zaizkigun eztabaidetako batzuk bertaratuz. Hala ere, ikusiko dugunez, korronte horri dudarik gabe eta aho batez dagozkien ezaugarriak ikus daitezke aztergai dudan obra honetan ere. Esan gabe doa, aztertuko ditudan baliabideak korronte postmodernistaren barruan kokatzen direla, beronek ezaugarritzen eta kokatzen duelarik obra hau ildo honen barruan, ikusiko dugunez. Hasiera batean, hauetako hainbat labur aipatuko ditut, identifikagarrien eta emankorren diren horiei erreferentzia gehixeago eginez. Ondoren, lan honen oinarri-oinarrian dauden baliabide esanguratsuenei ekingo diet, horretarako, lehenik, dagokien atal eta baliabideei sarrera teoriko bat eskainiko diedalarik eta ondoren, nobela oinarri izanik eta nire irakurketatik abiatuta, baliabide horietako bakoitzaren iruzkin zein kritikaren batekin osatuko ditudalarik. Honez gain, hauek osatzen duten sare edo loturen azterketak ere zer landu baduenez, bereziki aipaturiko gai hauetan zentratuko naiz datozen orrialdeetan, nire irakurketa propioan oinarrituz, gehienbat. Azpimarratu nahi nuke, lan hau bideratzeko, nire irakurketa propioa izan dudala oinarri, bai aztertuko ditudan baliabideak aukeratzeari dagokionez, bai nire atal kritikoari dagokionez ere eta garrantzitsuen iruditu zaizkidanak izango ditudala hizpide. Izan ere, irakurketa ugariko nobela izan daitekeenez, lan zein ondorio ezberdinak atera daitezkeela argi dago. Azterketa guzti hau oinarrian izanik, nire ondorioak aterako ditut eleberri hau lantzean ikasi eta ikusi ditudanak. Batzuk aurreratzearren, aipatu nahi nuke baliabide hauek osatzen duten sare koherentea sortzeko idazlearen gaitasuna, batetik, eta irakurlearen parte-hartzearen eta interpretazioaren beharra, korronte honetako obrek duten ezaugarri nagusienetakoa izanik azken hau, bestetik; eta azkenik, fikzioak duen garrantzia eta sortzen duen jolas literarioa, lanean zehar ikusiko dugunez

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to analyse whether the reaction of output and prices to interest rate and exchange rate shocks has changed across time (1996-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings show that: (1) output appears more responsive to an interest rate shock at the beginning of our sample. Since 2000, absorbing this shock has become less costly in terms of output, notwithstanding some reversal since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The exchange rate shock also has a time-varying effect on output. From 1996 to 2000, output seems to decline, whereas for periods between 2000 and 2008 it has a positive significant effect. (2) Consumer prices appear more responsive to an interest rate shock during the first half of our sample, when Poland experienced high inflation. The impact of an exchange rate shock on prices seems to slightly decrease across time

Applying and Extending the Delta Debugging Algorithm for Elevator Dispatching Algorithms (Experience Paper)

Elevator systems are one kind of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs), and as such, test cases are usually complex and long in time. This is mainly because realistic test scenarios are employed (e.g., for testing elevator dispatching algorithms, typically a full day of passengers traveling through a system of elevators is used). However, in such a context, when needing to reproduce a failure, it is of high benefit to provide the minimal test input to the software developers. This way, analyzing and trying to localize the root-cause of the failure is easier and more agile. Delta debugging has been found to be an efficient technique to reduce failure-inducing test inputs. In this paper, we enhance this technique by first monitoring the environment at which the CPS operates as well as its physical states. With the monitored information, we search for stable states of the CPS during the execution of the simulation. In a second step, we use such identified stable states to help the delta debugging algorithm isolate the failure-inducing test inputs more efficiently. We report our experience of applying our approach into an industrial elevator dispatching algorithm. An empirical evaluation carried out with real operational data from a real installation of elevators suggests that the proposed environment-wise delta debugging algorithm is between 1.3 to 1.8 times faster than the traditional delta debugging, while producing a larger reduction in the failure-inducing test inputs. The results provided by the different implemented delta debugging algorithm versions are qualitatively assessed with domain experts. This assessment provides new insights and lessons learned, such as, potential applications of the delta debugging algorithm beyond debugging

Monetary policy, credibility and central bank constitutions

Although most macroeconomists agree that the control of inflation may involve losses of output, there is no consensus about why. New Classical economists, focusing on the issue of credibility, have identified incentive problems as important obstacles to price stability. On the contrary, many new Keynesians regard credibility problems as secondary. They focus on the microeconomic details of wage and price adjustments as potential sources of disinflationary costs. Yet, if the costs and the benefits of anti-inflationary policy are strictly related to the market structure of the economy, so will be the incentives tempting the monetary authority to inflate. Indeed, what we show in this thesis is that the microeconomic aspects of wage and price setting not only affect the costs (benefits) of credible disinflationary (inflationary) policy, but that they need to be considered to determine whether those disinflationary (inflationary) policies can be perceived as credible or not. Despite the relevance of this problem, the economic analysis of microfoundations has received little attention at the time of designing efficient resolutions for the credibility problem of monetary policy. This idea has been illustrated in different ways. First, Rogoff's idea of delegation does not seem very attractive, if the wage setting process appears to be dominated by insider workers. Moreover, we have underlined the difficulties that a country like Spain, with a highly distorted labour market, may face in fighting inflation. Second, interesting patterns of inflation and output behaviour may be generated by the interaction of both credibility problems and staggered wage setting. Finally, although the difficulties of implementing anti-inflationary policies are emphasised in all our examples, they are particularly severe when near-rational behaviour or, alternatively, costs of changing prices are taken into account

Las relaciones de apego con el padre y la madre en la segunda infancia y su relación con la autoestima

El objetivo de este estudio ha sido analizar las relaciones afectivas entre los progenitores y sus hijos/as en la segunda infancia y su relación con la autoestima en una muestra de 111 niños/as (media edad=5.08 años). Los instrumentos de medida proyectivos utilizados han sido: el “Attachment Story Completion Task” (Verschueren y Marcoen, 1994) y el “Puppet Interview” (Verschueren, Schoefs y Marcoen, 1986). Los resultados obtenidos nos permiten afirmar que a nivel global la seguridad en la representación de apego es superior con las madres y la existencia de una mayor relación entre la seguridad del padre y la autoestima (“Positividad del Yo”) en los niños.The aim of this piece of research was to analyze of affective relationships between parents and children during middle childhood and to determine their relationship with self-esteem in a sample group comprising 111 children (mean age=5.08 years). The projective measurement instruments used were: the “Attachment Story Completion Task” (Verschueren and Marcoen, 1994) and the “Puppet Interview” (Verschueren, Schoefs and Marcoen, 1986). The results obtained confirm that, in general, security in the representation of attachment is greater with mothers, and that the relationship between security of attachment with the father and self-esteem (positiveness of self) is greater in boys