Implementation of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) Algorithm in COMBATXXI using JDAFS

The implementation of the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm into the Combined Arms Analysis Tool for the 21st Century (COMBATXXI) project is an extension of work completed in FY13. The TRADOC Analysis Center - Methods and Research Office (TRAC-MRO) sponsored this iteration in an attempt to test the feasibility implementing the algorithm into the COMBATXXI simulation environment. For further details on the specific algorithm of more background information see appendix and the previous technical report.TRAC-MROTRAC Project Code # 060025Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Lot Splitting in Stochastic Flow Shop and Job Shop Environments

In recent years many firms have been implementing small lot size production. Lot splitting breaks large orders into smaller transfer lots and offers the ability to move parts more quickly through the production process. This paper extends the deterministic studies by investigating various lot splitting policies in both stochastic job shop and stochastic flow shop settings using performance measures of mean flow time and the standard deviation of flow time. Using a computer simulation experiment, we found that in stochastic dynamic job shops, the number of lot splits is more important than the exact fonn of splitting. However, when optimal job sizes are determined for each scenario, we found a few circumstances where the implementation of a small initial split, called a "flag," can provide measurable improvement in flow time performance. Interestingly, the vast majority of previous research indicates that methods other than equal lot splitting typically improves makespan performance. The earlier research, however, has been set in the static, deterministic flow shop environment. Thus, our results are of practical interest since they show that the specific method of lot splitting is important in only a small set of realistic environments while the choice of an appropriate number of splits is typically more important

Web-Based Simulation: Evolution or Revolution?

ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, Vol. 10, No. 1, January 2000, Pages 3–17

Bounded Arithmetic in Free Logic

One of the central open questions in bounded arithmetic is whether Buss' hierarchy of theories of bounded arithmetic collapses or not. In this paper, we reformulate Buss' theories using free logic and conjecture that such theories are easier to handle. To show this, we first prove that Buss' theories prove consistencies of induction-free fragments of our theories whose formulae have bounded complexity. Next, we prove that although our theories are based on an apparently weaker logic, we can interpret theories in Buss' hierarchy by our theories using a simple translation. Finally, we investigate finitistic G\"odel sentences in our systems in the hope of proving that a theory in a lower level of Buss' hierarchy cannot prove consistency of induction-free fragments of our theories whose formulae have higher complexity

Evolutionary connectionism: algorithmic principles underlying the evolution of biological organisation in evo-devo, evo-eco and evolutionary transitions

The mechanisms of variation, selection and inheritance, on which evolution by natural selection depends, are not fixed over evolutionary time. Current evolutionary biology is increasingly focussed on understanding how the evolution of developmental organisations modifies the distribution of phenotypic variation, the evolution of ecological relationships modifies the selective environment, and the evolution of reproductive relationships modifies the heritability of the evolutionary unit. The major transitions in evolution, in particular, involve radical changes in developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations that instantiate variation, selection and inheritance at a higher level of biological organisation. However, current evolutionary theory is poorly equipped to describe how these organisations change over evolutionary time and especially how that results in adaptive complexes at successive scales of organisation (the key problem is that evolution is self-referential, i.e. the products of evolution change the parameters of the evolutionary process). Here we first reinterpret the central open questions in these domains from a perspective that emphasises the common underlying themes. We then synthesise the findings from a developing body of work that is building a new theoretical approach to these questions by converting well-understood theory and results from models of cognitive learning. Specifically, connectionist models of memory and learning demonstrate how simple incremental mechanisms, adjusting the relationships between individually-simple components, can produce organisations that exhibit complex system-level behaviours and improve the adaptive capabilities of the system. We use the term “evolutionary connectionism” to recognise that, by functionally equivalent processes, natural selection acting on the relationships within and between evolutionary entities can result in organisations that produce complex system-level behaviours in evolutionary systems and modify the adaptive capabilities of natural selection over time. We review the evidence supporting the functional equivalences between the domains of learning and of evolution, and discuss the potential for this to resolve conceptual problems in our understanding of the evolution of developmental, ecological and reproductive organisations and, in particular, the major evolutionary transitions

Settling into an Increasingly Hostile World: The Rapidly Closing “Recruitment Window” for Corals

Free space is necessary for larval recruitment in all marine benthic communities. Settling corals, with limited energy to invest in competitive interactions, are particularly vulnerable during settlement into well-developed coral reef communities. This situation may be exacerbated for corals settling into coral-depauperate reefs where succession in nursery microhabitats moves rapidly toward heterotrophic organisms inhospitable to settling corals. To study effects of benthic organisms (at millimeter to centimeter scales) on newly settled corals and their survivorship we deployed terra-cotta coral settlement plates at 10 m depth on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef in Belize and monitored them for 38 mo. During the second and third years, annual recruitment rates declined by over 50% from the previous year. Invertebrate crusts (primarily sponges) were absent at the start of the experiment but increased in abundance annually from 39, 60, to 73% of the plate undersides by year three. Subsequently, substrates hospitable to coral recruitment, including crustose coralline algae, biofilmed terra-cotta and polychaete tubes, declined. With succession, substrates upon which spat settled shifted toward organisms inimical to survivorship. Over 50% of spat mortality was due to overgrowth by sponges alone. This result suggests that when a disturbance creates primary substrate a “recruitment window” for settling corals exists from approximately 9 to 14 mo following the disturbance. During the window, early-succession, facilitating species are most abundant. The window closes as organisms hostile to coral settlement and survivorship overgrow nursery microhabitats

Early environmental conditions shape personality types in a jumping spider

Individuals of many species across the animal kingdom are found to be less plastic than expected, even in behavioral traits. The existence of consistent behavioral differences between individuals, termed personality differences, is puzzling, since plastic behavior is considered ideal to enable animals to adaptively respond to changes in environmental conditions. In order to elucidate which mechanisms are important for the evolution of personality differences, it is crucial to understand which aspects of the environment are important for the development of personality differences. Here, we tested whether physical or social aspects of the environment during development influence individual differentiation (mean level of behavior) using the jumping spider Marpissa muscosa. Furthermore, we assessed whether those behaviors were repeatable, i.e. whether personalities existed. We applied a split-brood design and raised spider siblings in three different environments: a deprived environment with no enrichment, a socially and a physically enriched environment. We focused on exploratory behavior and repeatedly assessed individual behavior in a novel environment and a novel object test. Results show that the environment during development influenced spiders’ exploratory tendencies: spiders raised in enriched environments tended to be more exploratory. Most investigated behaviors were repeatable (i.e. personalities existed) across all individuals tested, whereas only few behaviors were also repeatable across individuals that had experienced the same environmental condition. Taken together, our results indicate that external stimuli can influence the development of one aspect of personality, the inter-individual variation (mean level of behavior), in a jumping spider. We also found family by environment interactions on behavioral traits potentially suggesting genetic variation in developmental plasticity