Applying the multistate capture-recapture robust design to characterize metapopulation structure

Population structure must be considered when developing mark-recapture (MR) study designs as the sampling of individuals from multiple populations (or subpopulations) may increase heterogeneity in individual capture probability. Conversely, the use of an appropriate MR study design which accommodates heterogeneity associated with capture occasion varying covariates due to animals moving between 'states' (i.e. geographic sites) can provide insight into how animals are distributed in a particular environment and the status and connectivity of subpopulations. The multistate closed robust design (MSCRD) was chosen to investigate: (i) the demographic parameters of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) subpopulations in coastal and estuarine waters of Perth, Western Australia; and (ii) how they are related to each other in a metapopulation. Using 4 years of year-round photo-identification surveys across three geographic sites, we accounted for heterogeneity of capture probability based on how individuals distributed themselves across geographic sites and characterized the status of subpopulations based on their abundance, survival and interconnection. MSCRD models highlighted high heterogeneity in capture probabilities and demographic parameters between sites. High capture probabilities, high survival and constant abundances described a subpopulation with high fidelity in an estuary. In contrast, low captures, permanent and temporary emigration and fluctuating abundances suggested transient use and low fidelity in an open coastline site. Estimates of transition probabilities also varied between sites, with estuarine dolphins visiting sheltered coastal embayments more regularly than coastal dolphins visited the estuary, highlighting some dynamics within the metapopulation. Synthesis and applications. To date, bottlenose dolphin studies using mark-recapture approach have focussed on investigating single subpopulations. Here, in a heterogeneous coastal-estuarine environment, we demonstrated that spatially structured bottlenose dolphin subpopulations contained distinct suites of individuals and differed in size, demographics and connectivity. Such insights into the dynamics of a metapopulation can assist in local-scale species conservation. The MSCRD approach is applicable to species/populations consisting of recognizable individuals and is particularly useful for characterizing wildlife subpopulations that vary in their vulnerability to human activities, climate change or invasive species

Predictors of reproductive cost in female Soay sheep

1. We investigate factors influencing the trade-off between survival and reproduction in female Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Multistate capture-recapture models are used to incorporate the state-specific recapture probability and to investigate the influence of age and ecological conditions on the cost of reproduction, defined as the difference between survival of breeder and non-breeder ewes on a logistic scale. 2. The cost is identified as a quadratic function of age, being greatest for females breeding at 1 year of age and when more than 7 years old. Costs, however, were only present during severe environmental conditions (wet and stormy winters occurring when population density was high). 3. Winter severity and population size explain most of the variation in the probability of breeding for the first time at 1 year of life, but did not affect the subsequent breeding probability. 4. The presence of a cost of reproduction was confirmed by an experiment where a subset of females was prevented from breeding in their first year of life. 5. Our results suggest that breeding decisions are quality or condition dependent. We show that the interaction between age and time has a significant effect on variation around the phenotypic trade-off function: selection against weaker individuals born into cohorts that experience severe environmental conditions early in life can progressively eliminate low-quality phenotypes from these cohorts, generating population-level effects