Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit

We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that the use of a single dominant hypothesis lacks objectivity relative to the use of exploratory and competing hypotheses approaches. We then conducted a publication audit of over 1,700 empirical papers in six leading marketing journals during 1984-1999. Of these, 74% used the dominant hypothesis approach, while 13 % used multiple competing hypotheses, and 13% were exploratory. Competing hypotheses were more commonly used for studying methods (25%) than models (17%) and phenomena (7%). Changes in the approach to hypotheses since 1984 have been modest; there was a slight decrease in the percentage of competing hypotheses to 11%, which is plained primarily by an increasing proportion of papers on phenomena. Of the studies based on hypothesis testing, only 11 % described the conditions under which the hypotheses would apply, and dominant hypotheses were below competing hypotheses in this regard. Marketing scientists differed substantially in their opinions about what types of studies should be published and what was published. On average, they did not think dominant hypotheses should be used as often as they were, and they underestimated their use

Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections

Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do. On the negative side, experts all have access to the same information. Based on prior literature and on our experiences with the 2004 presidential election and the 2008 campaign so far, we have reason to believe that a simple expert survey (the Nominal Group Technique) is preferable to Delphi. Our survey of experts in American politics was quite accurate in the 2004 election. Following the same procedure, we have assembled a new panel of experts to forecast the 2008 presidential election. Here we report the results of the first survey, and compare our experts’ forecasts with predictions by the Iowa Electronic Market .forecasting; elections; expert surveys; Delphi

Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit

We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that the use of a single dominant hypothesis lacks objectivity relative to the use of exploratory and competing hypotheses approaches. We then conducted a publication audit of over 1,700 empirical papers in six leading marketing journals during 1984-1999. Of these, 74% used the dominant hypothesis approach, while 13 % used multiple competing hypotheses, and 13% were exploratory. Competing hypotheses were more commonly used for studying methods (25%) than models (17%) and phenomena (7%). Changes in the approach to hypotheses since 1984 have been modest; there was a slight decrease in the percentage of competing hypotheses to 11%, which is explained primarily by an increasing proportion of papers on phenomena. Of the studies based on hypothesis testing, only 11 % described the conditions under which the hypotheses would apply, and dominant hypotheses were below competing hypotheses in this regard. Marketing scientists differed substantially in their opinions about what types of studies should be published and what was published. On average, they did not think dominant hypotheses should be used as often as they were, and they underestimated their use.marketing, marketing research, marketing science

TDIR: Time-Delay Interferometric Ranging for Space-Borne Gravitational-Wave Detectors

Space-borne interferometric gravitational-wave detectors, sensitive in the low-frequency (mHz) band, will fly in the next decade. In these detectors, the spacecraft-to-spacecraft light-travel times will necessarily be unequal and time-varying, and (because of aberration) will have different values on up- and down-links. In such unequal-armlength interferometers, laser phase noise will be canceled by taking linear combinations of the laser-phase observables measured between pairs of spacecraft, appropriately time-shifted by the light propagation times along the corresponding arms. This procedure, known as time-delay interferometry (TDI), requires an accurate knowledge of the light-time delays as functions of time. Here we propose a high-accuracy technique to estimate these time delays and study its use in the context of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission. We refer to this ranging technique, which relies on the TDI combinations themselves, as Time-Delay Interferometric Ranging (TDIR). For every TDI combination, we show that, by minimizing the rms power in that combination (averaged over integration times $\sim 10^4$ s) with respect to the time-delay parameters, we obtain estimates of the time delays accurate enough to cancel laser noise to a level well below the secondary noises. Thus TDIR allows the implementation of TDI without the use of dedicated inter-spacecraft ranging systems, with a potential simplification of the LISA design. In this paper we define the TDIR procedure formally, and we characterize its expected performance via simulations with the \textit{Synthetic LISA} software package.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Variable cavity volume tooling for high-performance resin infusion moulding

This article describes the research carried out by Warwick under the BAE Systems/EPSRC programme ‘Flapless Aerial Vehicles Integrated Interdisciplinary Research – FLAVIIR’. Warwick's aim in FLAVIIR was to develop low-cost innovative tooling technologies to enable the affordable manufacture of complex composite aerospace structures and to help realize the aim of the Grand Challenge of maintenance-free, low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle manufacture. This article focuses on the evaluation of a novel tooling process (variable cavity tooling) to enable the complete infusion of resin throughout non-crimp fabric within a mould cavity under low (0.1 MPa) injection pressure. The contribution of the primary processing parameters to the mechanical properties of a carbon composite component (bulk-head lug section), and the interactions between parameters, was determined. The initial mould gap (di) was identified as having the most significant effect on all measured mechanical properties, but complex interactions between di, n (number of fabric layers), and vc (mould closure rate) were observed. The process capability was low due to the manual processing, but was improved through process optimization, and delivered properties comparable to high-pressure resin transfer moulding

Measurement of the hyperfine structure of the S1/2-D5/2 transition in 43Ca+

The hyperfine structure of the S1/2-D5/2 quadrupole transition at 729 nm in 43Ca+ has been investigated by laser spectroscopy using a single trapped 43Ca+ ion. We determine the hyperfine structure constants of the metastable level as A=-3.8931(2) MHz and B=-4.241(4) MHz. The isotope shift of the transition with respect to 40Ca+ was measured to be 4134.713(5) MHz. We demonstrate the existence of transitions that become independent of the first-order Zeeman shift at non-zero low magnetic fields. These transitions might be better suited for building a frequency standard than the well-known 'clock transitions' between m=0 levels at zero magnetic field.Comment: corrected for sign errors in the hyperfine constants. No corrections to were made to the data analysi

Enhancing the work of the Islington Integrated Gangs Team: A pilot study on the response to serious youth violence in Islington

This report is the result of research conducted by the Centre for City Criminology at City, University of London, in partnership with Islington’s Integrated Gangs Team (IGT) and the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS). The research was co-funded by MPS and the School of Arts and Social Sciences, City, University of London. Following a collaborative research event in October 2017, City Criminologists were commissioned to carry out a small-scale research project to capture the work of the IGT and to make recommendations regarding its operations, coherence, effectiveness and sustainability. The research team conducted semi-structured interviews over several months with 23 practitioners across the services that constitute the IGT. This report presents the findings and recommendations

Darbepoetin alfa given every 1 or 2 weeks alleviates anaemia associated with cancer chemotherapy.

In part A of this study, patients were randomised to cohorts receiving darbepoetin alfa at doses of 0.5 to 8.0 m.c.g x kg(-1) x wk(-1) or to a control group receiving epoetin alfa at an initial dose of 150 U x kg(-1) three times weekly. In part B, the cohorts were darbepoetin alfa 3.0 to 9.0 m.c.g x kg(-1) every 2 weeks or epoetin alfa, initial dose 40 000 U x wk(-1). Safety was assessed by adverse events, changes in blood pressure, and formation of antibodies to darbepoetin alfa. Efficacy was assessed by several haematologic endpoints, including change in haemoglobin from baseline. The adverse event profile of darbepoetin alfa was similar to that of epoetin alfa. No relationship between the rapidity of haemoglobin response and any adverse event was observed. No antibodies to darbepoetin alfa were detected. Higher doses of darbepoetin alfa increased the proportion of patients with a haemoglobin response and decreased the median time to response. The overall dose of darbepoetin alfa required to produce a mean increase in haemoglobin does not increase when the dosing interval is increased from 1 to 2 weeks. Therapy with darbepoetin alfa is safe and effective in producing a dose-related increase in haemoglobin levels in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy