Modality in Leibniz's Philosophy.

Leibniz analyzes contingency in terms of a range of different notions: hypothetical necessity, per se contingency, infinite analysis, possible free decrees of God, and moral necessity. These have been interpreted as attempts to retreat from the neccesitarian view he adopts in his early work, but I defend the view that Leibniz’s commitment to necessitarianism—the claim that all truths are necessary—is an important and unwavering feature of his system. The core of Leibniz’s modal theory is the thesis that the denial of a necessary truth is contradictory. Leibniz thinks that if we take all necessary truths into account, including the nature of God, God’s understanding of essences, and his will to do what is best, then all things considered all truths are necessarily true. All truths are necessarily true because the denial of any truth contradicts some necessary feature of God. Instead of understanding Leibniz’s subsequent theories of contingency as abandoning necessitarianism, I treat them as attempts to account for distinctions his interlocutors draw. Rather than eschew all talk of contingency, Leibniz offers and liberally invokes proxies for this notion. I trace the development of Leibniz’s various accounts of contingency from his early to mature work in order to illustrate that they are best understood in a necessitarian framework. I develop versions of his various accounts of contingency, including per se contingency and hypothetical necessity (Chapter 1), infinite analysis and possible free decrees of God (Chapter 2), and moral necessity (Chapter 3). The outcome of my project is a systematic treatment of Leibniz’s surrogate or proxy theories of contingency within his necessitarian framework. It also establishes the character of Leibnizian possible worlds, which are key for the grounding of contingent truths in the goodness of God’s will. Instead of representing all logical space, possible worlds represent alternative plans for God’s world creation, and are thus constrained by metaphysical principles informed by God’s nature.PHDPhilosophyUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/116740/1/chloea_1.pd

Statistical properties of quasi-periodic pulsations in white-light flares observed with Kepler

We embark on a study of quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) in the decay phase of white-light stellar flares observed by Kepler. Out of the 1439 flares on 216 different stars detected in the short-cadence data using an automated search, 56 flares are found to have pronounced QPP-like signatures in the light curve, of which 11 have stable decaying oscillations. No correlation is found between the QPP period and the stellar temperature, radius, rotation period and surface gravity, suggesting that the QPPs are independent of global stellar parameters. Hence they are likely to be the result of processes occurring in the local environment. There is also no significant correlation between the QPP period and flare energy, however there is evidence that the period scales with the QPP decay time for the Gaussian damping scenario, but not to a significant degree for the exponentially damped case. This same scaling has been observed for MHD oscillations on the Sun, suggesting that they could be the cause of the QPPs in those flares. Scaling laws of the flare energy are also investigated, supporting previous reports of a strong correlation between the flare energy and stellar temperature/radius. A negative correlation between the flare energy and stellar surface gravity is also found

Investigating Morphosyntactic Variation in African American English on Twitter

Early work on African American English (AAE) perpetuated myths that the language variety was uniform across regions and that it was spoken primarily by working class men, due to being conducted in inner city areas and examining a specific set of linguistic features. These sociolinguistic myths negatively impacted not only the field of linguistics but also how the public viewed AAE. Since then studies have looked at a broader range of geographical areas and demonstrated distinct local differences. Here we build on this line of research by analyzing relative incidences of 18 morphosyntactic features in relationship to geographic and social factors, at scale. Our data is a corpus of 224M geotagged tweets, which is five orders of magnitude larger than previous social media studies of AAE. We use machine learning methods to automatically detect linguistic features and to identify common patterns of variation across the features. Our results show that, contrary to sociolinguistic myths of uniformity, there is clear variation in AAE across both geographic and social dimensions. Regionally, we see a distinct spatially contiguous southern core which aligns with national-level phonological and lexical variation in AAE, although it is less variable. Across social groups, there is higher AAE usage in the rural south and in Black-Hispanic contact communities – both of which are groups currently underrepresented in the literature. This work provides a significant advance in descriptive work on AAE morphosyntax, presenting the first national-level description and analysis of overall grammatical variation in AAE in order to answer key questions about variation in AAE. More broadly, our methods demonstrate how machine learning tools can be applied to large-scale real-world data to help us gain a more representative understanding of language in marginalized communities

The effect of reduced street lighting on road casualties and crime in England and Wales: controlled interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many local authorities in England and Wales have reduced street lighting at night to save money and reduce carbon emissions. There is no evidence to date on whether these reductions impact on public health. We quantified the effect of 4 street lighting adaptation strategies (switch off, part-night lighting, dimming and white light) on casualties and crime in England and Wales. METHODS: Observational study based on analysis of geographically coded police data on road traffic collisions and crime in 62 local authorities. Conditional Poisson models were used to analyse longitudinal changes in the counts of night-time collisions occurring on affected roads during 2000-2013, and crime within census Middle Super Output Areas during 2010-2013. Effect estimates were adjusted for regional temporal trends in casualties and crime. RESULTS: There was no evidence that any street lighting adaptation strategy was associated with a change in collisions at night. There was significant statistical heterogeneity in the effects on crime estimated at police force level. Overall, there was no evidence for an association between the aggregate count of crime and switch off (RR 0.11; 95% CI 0.01 to 2.75) or part-night lighting (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.06). There was weak evidence for a reduction in the aggregate count of crime and dimming (RR 0.84; 95% CI 0.70 to 1.02) and white light (RR 0.89; 95% CI 0.77 to 1.03). CONCLUSIONS: This study found little evidence of harmful effects of switch off, part-night lighting, dimming, or changes to white light/LEDs on road collisions or crime in England and Wales

Study protocol for two pilot randomised controlled trials aimed at increasing physical activity using electrically assisted bicycles to enhance prostate or breast cancer survival

BACKGROUND: In 2020, 1.4 and 2.3 million new cases of prostate cancer and breast cancer respectively were diagnosed globally. In the UK, prostate cancer is the most common male cancer, while breast cancer is the most common female cancer. Engaging in physical activity (PA) is a key component of treatment. However, rates of PA are low in these clinical populations. This paper describes the protocol of CRANK-P and CRANK-B, two pilot randomised controlled trials, involving an e-cycling intervention aimed at increasing PA in individuals with prostate cancer or breast cancer respectively.METHODS: These two trials are single-centre, stratified, parallel-group, two-arm randomised waitlist-controlled pilot trials in which forty individuals with prostate cancer (CRANK-P) and forty individuals with breast cancer (CRANK-B) will be randomly assigned, in a 1:1 allocation ratio, to an e-cycling intervention or waitlist control. The intervention consists of e-bike training with a certified cycle instructor, followed by the provision of an e-bike for 12 weeks. Following the intervention period, participants in the e-bike condition will be directed to community-based initiatives through which they can access an e-bike. Data will be collected at baseline (T0), immediately post intervention (T1) and at 3-month follow-up (T2). In addition, in the intervention group, data will be collected during the intervention and follow-up periods. Quantitative and qualitative methods will be used. The primary objectives are to determine effective recruitment strategies, establish recruitment and consent rates, adherence and retention in the study, and determine the feasibility and acceptability of the study procedures and intervention. The potential impact of the intervention on clinical, physiological and behavioural outcomes will be assessed to examine intervention promise. Data analyses will be descriptive.DISCUSSION: The findings from these trials will provide information on trial feasibility and highlight the potential of e-cycling as a strategy to positively impact the health and behaviour of individuals with prostate cancer and breast cancer. If appropriate, this information can be used to design and deliver a fully powered definitive trial.TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRANK-B: [ISRCTN39112034]. CRANK-P [ISRCTN42852156]. Registered [08/04/2022] https://www.isrctn.com .</p

The host stars of Kepler's habitable exoplanets : superflares, rotation and activity

We embark on a detailed study of the light curves of Kepler's most Earth-like exoplanet host stars using the full length of Kepler data. We derive rotation periods, photometric activity indices, flaring energies, mass-loss rates, gyrochronological ages, X-ray luminosities and consider implications for the planetary magnetospheres and habitability. Furthermore, we present the detection of superflares in the light curve of Kepler-438, the exoplanet with the highest Earth Similarity Index to date. Kepler-438b orbits at a distance of 0.166 au to its host star, and hence may be susceptible to atmospheric stripping. Our sample is taken from the Habitable Exoplanet Catalogue, and consists of the stars Kepler-22, Kepler-61, Kepler-62, Kepler-174, Kepler-186, Kepler-283, Kepler-296, Kepler-298, Kepler-438, Kepler-440, Kepler-442, Kepler-443 and KOI-4427, between them hosting 15 of the most habitable transiting planets known to date from Kepler

Images of Research:An Art Gallery and Puzzle Book

Images of Research is an annual competition that challenges researchers to capture their work in a single image, alongside a short description. This competition has been run at the University of Dundee since 2020 and represents just a handful of the research projects being carried out by postgraduate researchers.The competition celebrates our research and the many original ways it can be expressed. This collection showcases the winning entries, mixed with fun sketches and puzzles to complete

Images of Research:An Art Gallery and Puzzle Book

Images of Research is an annual competition that challenges researchers to capture their work in a single image, alongside a short description. This competition has been run at the University of Dundee since 2020 and represents just a handful of the research projects being carried out by postgraduate researchers.The competition celebrates our research and the many original ways it can be expressed. This collection showcases the winning entries, mixed with fun sketches and puzzles to complete

Absence of street lighting may prevent vehicle crime, but spatial and temporal displacement remains a concern

Objectives This paper estimates the effect of changes in street lighting at night on levels of crime at street-level. Analyses investigate spatial and temporal displacement of crime into adjacent streets. Methods Offense data (burglaries, robberies, theft of and theft from vehicles, and violent crime) were obtained from Thames Valley Police, UK. Street lighting data (switching lights off at midnight, dimming, and white light) were obtained from local authorities. Monthly counts of crime at street-level were analyzed using a conditional fixed-effects Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal and temporal variation. Two sets of models analyzed: (1) changes in night-time crimes adjusting for changes in day-time crimes and (2) changes in crimes at all times of the day. Results Switching lights off at midnight was strongly associated with a reduction in night-time theft from vehicles relative to daytime (rate ratio RR 0.56; 0.41–0.78). Adjusted for changes in daytime, night-time theft from vehicles increased (RR 1.55; 1.14–2.11) in adjacent roads where street lighting remained unchanged. Conclusion Theft from vehicle offenses reduced in streets where street lighting was switched off at midnight but may have been displaced to better-lit adjacent streets. Relative to daytime, night-time theft from vehicle offenses reduced in streets with dimming while theft from vehicles at all times of the day increased, thus suggesting temporal displacement. These findings suggest that the absence of street lighting may prevent theft from vehicles, but there is a danger of offenses being temporally or spatially displaced

Trial Protocol: Using genotype to tailor prescribing of nicotine replacement therapy: a randomised controlled trial assessing impact of communication upon adherence.

BACKGROUND: The behavioural impact of pharmacogenomics is untested; informing smokers of genetic test results for responsiveness to smoking cessation medication may increase adherence to this medication. The objective of this trial is to estimate the impact upon adherence to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) of informing smokers that their oral dose of NRT has been tailored to a DNA analysis. Hypotheses to be tested are as follows: I Adherence to NRT is greater among smokers informed that their oral dose of NRT is tailored to an analysis of DNA (genotype), compared to one tailored to nicotine dependence questionnaire score (phenotype). II Amongst smokers who fail to quit at six months, motivation to make another quit attempt is lower when informed that their oral dose of NRT was tailored to genotype rather than phenotype. METHODS/DESIGN: An open label, parallel groups randomised trial in which 630 adult smokers (smoking 10 or more cigarettes daily) using National Health Service (NHS) stop smoking services in primary care are randomly allocated to one of two groups:i. NRT oral dose tailored by DNA analysis (OPRM1 gene) (genotype), orii. NRT oral dose tailored by nicotine dependence questionnaire score (phenotype)The primary outcome is proportion of prescribed NRT consumed in the first 28 days following an initial quit attempt, with the secondary outcome being motivation to make another quit attempt, amongst smokers not abstinent at six months. Other outcomes include adherence to NRT in the first seven days and biochemically validated smoking abstinence at six months. The primary outcome will be collected on 630 smokers allowing sufficient power to detect a 7.5% difference in mean proportion of NRT consumed using a two-tailed test at the 5% level of significance between groups. The proportion of all NRT consumed in the first four weeks of quitting will be compared between arms using an independent samples t-test and by estimating the 95% confidence interval for observed between-arm difference in mean NRT consumption (Hypothesis I). Motivation to make another quit attempt will be compared between arms in those failing to quit by six months (Hypothesis II). DISCUSSION: This is the first clinical trial evaluating the behavioural impact on adherence of prescribing medication using genetic rather than phenotypic information. Specific issues regarding the choice of design for trials of interventions of this kind are discussed. TRIAL DETAILS: Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)Grant number: G0500274. ISRCTN: 14352545. Date trial stated: June 2007. Expected end date: December 2009. Expected reporting date: December 2010.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are