Forecasting and prequential validation for time varying meta-elliptical distributions

We consider forecasting and prequential (predictive sequential) validation of meta-elliptical distributions with time varying parameters. Using the weak prequential principle of Dawid, we conduct model validation avoiding nuisance parameter problems. Results rely on the structure of meta-elliptical distributions and we allow for discontinuities in the marginals and time varying parameters. We illustrate the ideas of the paper using a large data set of 16 commodity prices

Studi Peningkatan Produksi Minyak dengan Metode Injeksi Polimer Ditinjau dari Bermacam Salinitas Air Formasi

Injeksi polimer merupakan salah satu teknik kimiawi yang digunakan dalam proses perolehan minyak atau Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). Injeksi polimer banyak digunakan dalam teknik EOR karena teknik aplikasinya relatif sederhana dan recovery yang didapat relatif besar dibandingkan dengan injeksi air secara konvensional. Dalam proses produksi dengan injeksi air biasanya sering terjadi fenomena air mengalir terlebih dahulu daripada minyak secara tidak merata dan biasanya terjadi pada reservoir yang heterogen. Polimer dapat meningkatkan viskositas fluida pendesak (air) dan berperan dalam mendorong dan mendesak minyak supaya lebih optimal. Pada penelitian ini di lakukan evaluasi pengaruh dari kenaikan salinitas air formasi terhadap kenaikan RF dan Penurunan SOR

Orientalisme Dan Islam Dalam Pergulatan Sejarah

Western interest in Islam can be seen as the start of the movement to study Islam since the 12th century. At that time, some western monks ever came to Andalusia in the heyday of the East. They learn in schools there, translating the Koran and Arabic language books into their language in various fields of science. Among them is Jerbert who was elected Pope of Rome in 999 AD, Pierrele Aenere (1156-1092), and Gerard de Gremone (1187-1114). After returning to their home areas they begin to teach the science that has been obtained. This article discusses about Orientals, ranging from the definition, history until its development. Including the development of studies of Orientals is the quality Orientalis, subjectivist or objectivist. According to the authors, the quality classification is necessary as a critique of Orientals lunge. At the end of the study say that there are two models of Orientals Islamic studies. A view of them remains as subjective first period with a condescending attitude towards the East. But others, has seen Islam objectively in terms of pure scienc

Model Komunikasi Perkawinan Jarak Jauh

Komunikasi pasangan suami istri jarak jauh pada penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi karena keunikan dari pasangan suami istri yang seharusnya hidup dalam satu tempat tinggal yang sama tetapi harus terpisah ruang dan waktu. Selain itu tidak semua pasangan suami dan istri mampu menjalani pernikahan jarak jauh dan bisa mempertahankan pernikahannya sampai saat ini.Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk (1) mengetahui latarbelakang melakukan komunikasi pada pasangan suami istri jarak jauh; (2) mengetahui makna keharmonisan bagi pasangan suami istri yang melakukan komunikasi jarak jauh; (3) mengetahui pengalaman komunikasi bermedia pada pasangan suami istri jarak jauh. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus. Data dari informan didapatkan dari enam pasangan suami istri yang melakukan komunikasi jarak jauh dengan menggunakan teknik pengamatan non partisipan dan wawancara mendalam.Hasil penelitian ini menujukkan bahwa (1) latarbelakang melakukan komunikasi pasangan suami istri jarak jauh tediri dari beberapa aspek: a. Jodoh, b. Tugas belajar, c. Penempatan tugas kerja, d. Tuntutan ekonomi; (2) Makna keharmonisan terdiri dari beberapa aspek: a. Saling percaya, b. Keterbukaan, c. Pengertian, d. Perhatian, e. Berpikir positif, f. Saling komunikasi, g. Menghargai, h. Memecahkan masalah; (3) Pengalaman komunikasi bermedia pasangan suami istri jarak jauh. Pengalaman komunikasi dibagi menjadi tiga bagian, yaitu a. Komunikasi bermedia (telepon, skype, bbm/sms), b. Rutinitas komunikasi (pagi, siang, malam), c. Kendala komunikasi (sinyal, biaya dan waktu). DOI: 10.24198/jkk.vol4n1.1

Treatment for Disruption of Smartphone Use in Learning Activity Through School-Wide Positive Behavior Support

This study is purposed for guiding students to use their smartphone appropriately and opportunely through School-Wide Positive Behavior Support (SWPB). Location of this research was at SMA Muhammadiyah 1 Yogyakarta which used Classroom Action Research and Spiral Self-Reflective as its design. The research process was undertaken within 2 cycles where each cycle consists of the planning phase, action phase, and reflection phase. Group counseling and individual counseling were applied as the form of SWPB in which students who received these services were selected purposively. All data collected through observation, questionnaire, and interview. Respondents participated cooperatively during counseling service sessions; as a result, they can manage their selves to not use smartphone unless it is necessary for learning resource and assignment in the classroom

Perundungan Reaktif Di Sekolah Dasar Dan Intervensi Berbasis Nuansa Sekolah

Orang tua dan guru belum banyak menyadari bahwa “perilaku nakal” anak usia sekolah dasar sebenarnya juga merupakan perilaku Perundungan. Melihat hal tersebut masih terjadi dan kurang mendapatkan perhatian atau penanganan serius terhadap perilaku kekerasan di sekolah dasar, maka penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengidenti­fikasi pelaku, korban, dan bentuk kekerasan, menjelaskan perbedaan perilaku kekerasan antara siswa laki-laki dan siswa perempuan; antara siswa kelas rendah dan siswa kelas tinggi; menemukan faktor penyebabnya; dan bagaimana peran guru secara preventif dan kuratif terhadap perilaku kekerasan. Penelitian dilakukan dengan desain mixed-method berurutan (kuantitatif→kualitatif), jumlah sampel 142 siswa yang didapatkan dengan cluster sampling. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebanyak 62.761% siswa pernah melakukan tindak kekerasan dan terdapat perbedaan perilaku kekerasan antara siswa kelas rendah dengan siswa kelas tinggi (P value 0.930 > 0.05), juga perbedaan antara siswa laki-laki dengan siswa perempuan (P value 0.930 > 0.05). Faktor penyebab perilaku kekerasan bukan hanya keluarga dan lingkungan sekolah, namun juga diri sendiri, di mana para guru sudah melakukan upaya preventif dan kuratif terhadap Perundungan berbasis nuansa sekolah

Uji Aktivitas Ekstrak Buah Merah (Pandanus Conoideus) Sebagai Hepatoprotektor Pada Hati Mencit Galur Swiss Yang Diinduksi Dengan Ccl4

Liver is an the important organ, it plays an essential role in maintaining the biological equilibrium of vertebrates. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) play an important role in pathological changes in the liver. The research has been carried out to know the potential use of buah merah (Pandanus conoideus) extract as hepatoprotrctive agent against CCl4 poisoning in mice. In this study, the hepatoprotective activity was determined by the reduction of SGPT (serum glutamic pyruvate transaminase) and SGOT (serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase) level. Application of buah merah extract significantly (p< 0,05) reduced SGPT and SGOT level. Microscopically, several changes were found, such as severe hydrofic degeneration and necrosis at liver cell that treated by CCl4. Base on histological examination of application of buah merah extract, could inhibit damage and reduced the degeneration and necrosis of liver cell

Persecution Act as Filter Bubble Effect: Digital Society and the Shift of Public Sphere

This article discusses persecution acts associated with the filter bubble effect, the condition of digital society, the concept of the public sphere and the rational action theory of Jurgen Habermas. The results, obtained through the literature research method, show that acts of persecution in social media can be caused by the personalization of the web. Social media allows the occurrence of large bubbles (filter bubbles) that make users reject ideologies or other truths. This becomes a revolution of mindset due to the freedom of information. Meanwhile, in the Habermas public sphere concept, which emphasizes the existence of a critical and rational discussion, this phenomenon indicates a shift. The shift that occurs brings about the lifeworld realm as the basis for the formation of the public sphere with its communicative action, again dominated by the system realm that is dominated by capitalist forces through strategic action. Thus, Habermas\u27s initial goal of strengthening civil society\u27s position against the dominance of the system is now changing