On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity

In a recent issue of this journal, Loehle (2014) presents a "minimal model" for estimating climate sensitivity, identical to that previously published by Loehle and Scafetta (2011). The novelty in the more recent paper lies in the straightforward calculation of an estimate of transient climate response based on the model and an estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity derived therefrom, via a flawed methodology. We demonstrate that the Loehle and Scafetta model systematically underestimates the transient climate response, due to a number of unsupportable assumptions regarding the climate system. Once the flaws in Loehle and Scafetta's model are addressed, the estimates of transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity derived from the model are entirely consistent with those obtained from general circulation models, and indeed exclude the possibility of low climate sensitivity, directly contradicting the principal conclusion drawn by Loehle. Further, we present an even more parsimonious model for estimating climate sensitivity. Our model is based on observed changes in radiative forcings, and is therefore constrained by physics, unlike the Loehle model, which is little more than a curve-fitting exercise

A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context : Reassessment and retrospective on the evidence

This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing

A Catalogue of M51 type Galaxy Associations

A catalog of 232 apparently interacting galaxy pairs of the M51 class is presented. Catalog members were identified from visual inspection of mult-band images in the IRSA archive. The major findings in the compilation of this catalog are (1) A surprisingly low number of the main galaxies in M51 systems are early type spirals and barred spirals. (2) Over 70% of the main galaxies in M51 systems are 2-armed spirals. (3) Some systems that were classified as M51 types in previous studies are not M51 types as defined in this catalog. There were a number of systems previously classified as M51 systems for which the companion is identified as an HII region within the main galaxy or a foreground star within the Milky Way. (4) It was found that only 18% of the M51 type companions have redshift measurements in the literature. There is a significant need for spectroscopic study of the companions in order to improve the value of the catalog as a sample for studying the effects of M51 type interaction on galaxy dynamics, morphology, and star formation. Further spectroscopy will also help constrain the statistics of possible chance projections between foreground and background galaxies in this catalog. The catalog also contains over 430 additional systems which are classified as "possible M51" systems. The reasons for classifying certain systems as possible M51 systems are discussed.Comment: 19 pages including 6 figures and tables 3-8, Tables 1 and 2 are found at http://www.jorcat.com, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Polluted discourse: Communication and myths in a climate of denial

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016. Human activities, principally the burning of fossil fuels, are changing the climate. Despite widespread scientific consensus on this fact, communicating the risks posed by climate change to the public remains challenging. We examine the role of contrarian narratives in climate communication, focusing on two terminological claims—(1) that scientists abandoned the term global warming in favor of climate change in response to a change in temperature evolution, and (2) that catastrophic anthropogenic global warming is the mainstream scientific position—and find them to be without merit. We discuss how scientists and communicators can neutralize these myths while informing the public. Finally, we summarize the existing literature on word choice in climate communications and suggest best practices based on target audiences