Epidemiology of Heart Failure

Cardiovascular mortality rates have decline'd significantly in most industrialized countries over the past three decades.2 Nevertheless, cardiovascular disease remains one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in Western society, especially as the average age of the population increases.'" Heart failure is rapidly becoming one of the most prevalent cardiovascular disorders and the incidence of heart failure is expected to continue to increase for some time to come.5,6 Unfortunately, it appears that the declining fatality rate of acute coronary events/ resulting in a larger group of persons at increased risk of developing chronic cardiovascular disease, contributes to the rise of heart failure. The paradox of better care is expanded by the observation that treatment of hypertension may actually postpone rather than prevent the onset of heart failure. 8 The prognosis of heart failure is poor9 and the economic impact of heart failure on health services is considerable because of the long-tenn pharmacological treatment and frequent hospitalizations associated with the syndrome. This burden is set to increase further as the prognosis of patients with heart failure is improved by medical and surgical interventions10- 13 and the proportion of the elderly increases in Western society

Некоторые проблемы добычи полезных ископаемых на глубоких горизонтах недр

Cardiovascular screening may benefit middle-aged sportsmen, as coronary artery disease (CAD) is the main cause of exercise-related sudden cardiac death. Arterial stiffness, as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV), may help identify sportsmen with subclinical CAD. We examined the additional value of PWV measurements to traditional CAD risk factors for identifying CAD.From the Measuring Athlete's Risk of Cardiovascular events (MARC) cohort of asymptomatic, middle-aged sportsmen who underwent low-dose Cardiac CT (CCT) after routine sports medical examination (SME), 193 consecutive sportsmen (aged 55 ± 6.6 years) were included with additional PWV measurements before CCT. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of PWV values (>8.3 and >7.5 m/s) assessed by Arteriograph were used to identify CAD (coronary artery calcium scoring ≥ 100 Agatston Units or coronary CT angiography luminal stenosis ≥ 50%) and to assess the additional diagnostic value of PWV to established cardiovascular risk factors.Forty-seven sportsmen (24%) had CAD on CCT. They were older (58.9 vs. 53.8 years, p<0.001), had more hypertension (17 vs. 4%, p=0.003), higher cholesterol levels (5.7 vs. 5.4 mmol/l) p=0.048), and more often were (ever) smokers (55 vs. 34%, p=0.008). Mean PWV was higher in those with CAD (8.9 vs. 8.0 m/s, p=0.017). For PWV >8.3m/s respectively >7.5 m/s sensitivity to detect CAD on CT was 43% and 74%, specificity 69% and 45%, positive predictive value 31% and 30%, and negative predictive value 79% and 84%. Adding PWV to traditional risk factor models did not change the area under the curve (from 0.78 (95% CI = 0.709-0.848)) to AUC 0.78 (95% CI 0.710-0.848, p = 0.99)) for prediction of CAD on CCT.Limited additional value was found for PWV on top of established risk factors to identify CAD. PWV might still have a role to identify CAD in middle-aged sportsmen if risk factors such as cholesterol are unknown

Определение интервалов квазистационарности экономических систем

В работе рассмотрен вопрос определения оптимального интервала адаптации алгоритма динамического управления капиталом для нестационарного случая методами расчета показателя Херста и построения автокорреляционной функции для анализа временных рядов. Проведен анализ влияния выбора интервала адаптации на эффективность алгоритма. Из анализа полученных результатов следует, что метод расчета показателя Херста позволяет более эффективно, чем метод построения автокорреляционной функции, определить интервал стационарности модели функционирования экономической системы.Робота присвячена питанню визначення оптимального інтервалу адаптації алгоритму динамічного керування капіталом для нестаціонарного випадку за допомогою методів розрахунку показника Херста і побудови автокореляційної функції задля аналізу часових рядів. Проведено аналіз впливу вибору інтервалу адаптації на ефективність алгоритму. Порівняння результатів проведеного аналізу дозволяє стверджувати, що метод розрахунку показника Херста дозволяє більш ефективно, ніж метод побудови автокореляційної функції, визначити інтервал стаціонарності моделі функціонування економічної системи

Clinical Outcome Predictions for the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) Trial

Background: The prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction included high-risk patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had a high event rate despite the use of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group. Methods and Results: Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class II–IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical end points, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, and nonlinearities. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples. Over a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 patients (38.5%). Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary end point included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse New York Heart Association functional class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death. Conclusions: Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data—including novel measures—performed well in high-risk patients with HF who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care. Clinical Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534. Lay Summary: Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians to better understand a patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after the worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on the risk factors for clinical events from a recent, large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options

Colchicine and diabetes in patients with chronic coronary artery disease: insights from the LoDoCo2 randomized controlled trial

IntroductionDespite optimal treatment, patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are at high risk of cardiovascular events, emphasizing the need for new treatment options. The Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial demonstrated that colchicine reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic CAD. This analysis determines the efficacy of colchicine in patients with chronic CAD and DM as well as the effect of colchicine on the development of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).MethodsThe LoDoCo2 trial randomized 5,522 patients to placebo or colchicine 0.5 mg once daily, with a median follow-up of 28.6 months. The primary composite endpoint was cardiovascular death, spontaneous myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or ischemia-driven revascularization. The effect of its treatment in patients with and without DM was evaluated by including an interaction term in the model.ResultsA total of 1,007 participants (18.2%) had T2DM at baseline. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) [(95% confidence interval (CI)] for the primary endpoint in the T2DM group was 1.52 (1.15–2.01, p &lt; 0.01) compared with the group without T2DM. The HR for the treatment effect on the primary endpoint was 0.87 (0.61–1.25) in participants with T2DM and 0.64 (0.51–0.80) in participants without diabetes (pinteraction = 0.14). The incidence of new-onset T2DM was 1.5% (34 out of 2,270) in the colchicine group and 2.2% (49 out of 2,245) in the placebo group (p = 0.10).DiscussionIn conclusion, based on the current evidence, the beneficial effects of colchicine on cardiovascular endpoints are consistent regardless of DM status. The potential benefits of colchicine in preventing new-onset DM need further investigation. These findings are only hypothesis-generating and require larger prospective trials to confirm the results

Effects of a Novel Nitroxyl Donor in Acute Heart Failure The STAND-UP AHF Study

Objectives: The primary objective was to identify well-tolerated doses of cimlanod in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). Secondary objectives were to identify signals of efficacy, including biomarkers, symptoms, and clinical events. Background: Nitroxyl (HNO) donors have vasodilator, inotropic and lusitropic effects. Bristol-Myers Squibb-986231 (cimlanod) is an HNO donor being developed for acute heart failure (AHF). Methods: This was a phase IIb, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of 48-h treatment with cimlanod compared with placebo in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% hospitalized for AHF. In part I, patients were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to escalating doses of cimlanod or matching placebo. In part II, patients were randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to either of the 2 highest tolerated doses of cimlanod from part I or placebo. The primary endpoint was the rate of clinically relevant hypotension (systolic blood pressure &lt;90 mm Hg or patients became symptomatic). Results: In part I (n = 100), clinically relevant hypotension was more common with cimlanod than placebo (20% vs. 8%; relative risk [RR]: 2.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83 to 14.53). In part II (n = 222), the incidence of clinically relevant hypotension was 18% for placebo, 21% for cimlanod 6 μg/kg/min (RR: 1.15; 95% CI: 0.58 to 2.43), and 35% for cimlanod 12 μg/kg/min (RR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.04 to 3.59). N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide and bilirubin decreased during infusion of cimlanod treatment compared with placebo, but these differences did not persist after treatment discontinuation. Conclusions: Cimlanod at a dose of 6 μg/kg/min was reasonably well-tolerated compared with placebo. Cimlanod reduced markers of congestion, but this did not persist beyond the treatment period. (Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of 48-Hour Infusions of HNO (Nitroxyl) Donor in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure [STANDUP AHF]; NCT03016325

Cost Effectiveness of a CYP2C19 Genotype-Guided Strategy in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction:Results from the POPular Genetics Trial

INTRODUCTION: The POPular Genetics trial demonstrated that a CYP2C19 genotype-guided P2Y12 inhibitor strategy reduced bleeding rates compared with standard treatment with ticagrelor or prasugrel without increasing thrombotic event rates after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). OBJECTIVE: In this analysis, we aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of a genotype-guided strategy compared with standard treatment with ticagrelor or prasugrel. METHODS: A 1-year decision tree based on the POPular Genetics trial in combination with a lifelong Markov model was developed to compare costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between a genotype-guided and a standard P2Y12 inhibitor strategy in patients with myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI. The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a Dutch healthcare system perspective. Within-trial survival and utility data were combined with lifetime projections to evaluate lifetime cost effectiveness for a cohort of 1000 patients. Costs and utilities were discounted at 4 and 1.5%, respectively, according to Dutch guidelines for health economic studies. Besides deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, several scenario analyses were also conducted (different time horizons, different discount rates, equal prices for P2Y12 inhibitors, and equal distribution of thrombotic events between the two strategies). RESULTS: Base-case analysis with a hypothetical cohort of 1000 subjects demonstrated 8.98 QALYs gained and €725,550.69 in cost savings for the genotype-guided strategy (dominant). The deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model and the cost-effectiveness results. In scenario analyses, the genotype-guided strategy remained dominant. CONCLUSION: In patients undergoing primary PCI, a CYP2C19 genotype-guided strategy compared with standard treatment with ticagrelor or prasugrel resulted in QALYs gained and cost savings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov number: NCT01761786, Netherlands trial register number: NL2872

Non-invasive cardiac assessment in high risk patients (The GROUND study): rationale, objectives and design of a multi-center randomized controlled clinical trial

Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common disease associated with a considerably increased risk of future cardiovascular events and most of these patients will die from coronary artery disease (CAD). Screening for silent CAD has become an option with recent non-invasive developments in CT (computed tomography)-angiography and MR (magnetic resonance) stress testing. Screening in combination with more aggressive treatment may improve prognosis. Therefore we propose to study whether a cardiac imaging algorithm, using non-invasive imaging techniques followed by treatment will reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease in PAD patients free from cardiac symptoms. Design: The GROUND study is designed as a prospective, multi-center, randomized clinical trial. Patients with peripheral arterial disease, but without symptomatic cardiac disease will be asked to participate. All patients receive a proper risk factor management before randomization. Half of the recruited patients will enter the 'control group' and only undergo CT calcium scoring. The other half of the recruited patients (index group) will undergo the non invasive cardiac imaging algorithm followed by evidence-based treatment. First, patients are submitted to CT calcium scoring and CT angiography. Patients with a left main (or equivalent) coronary artery stenosis of > 50% on CT will be referred to a cardiologist without further imaging. All other patients in this group will undergo dobutamine stress magnetic resonance (DSMR) testing. Patients with a DSMR positive for ischemia will also be referred to a cardiologist. These patients are candidates for conventional coronary angiography and cardiac interventions (coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous cardiac interventions (PCI)), if indicated. All participants of the trial will enter a 5 year follow up period for the occurrence of cardiovascular events. Sequential interim analysis will take place. Based on sample size calculations about 1200 patients are needed to detect a 24% reduction in primary outcome. Implications: The GROUND study will provide insight into the question whether non-invasive cardiac imaging reduces the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with peripheral arterial disease, but without symptoms of coronary artery disease. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT0018911

A randomised comparison of the effect of haemodynamic monitoring with CardioMEMS in addition to standard care on quality of life and hospitalisations in patients with chronic heart failure: Design and rationale of the MONITOR HF multicentre randomised clinical trial

Background: Assessing haemodynamic congestion based on filling pressures instead of clinical congestion can be a way to further improve quality of life (QoL) and clinical outcome by intervening before symptoms or weight gain occur in heart failure (HF) patients. The clinical efficacy of remote monitoring of pulmonary artery (PA) pressures (CardioMEMS; Abbott Inc., Atlanta, GA, USA) has been demonstrated in the USA. Currently, the PA sensor is not reimbursed in the European Union as its benefit when applied in addition to standard HF care is unknown in Western European countries, including the Netherlands. Aims: To demonstrate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of haemodynamic PA monitoring in addition to contemporary standard HF care in a high-quality Western European health care system. Methods: The current study is a prospective, multi-centre, randomised clinical trial in 340 patients with chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class III) randomised to HF care including remote monitoring with the CardioMEMS PA sensor or standard HF care alone. Eligible patients have at least one hospitalisation for HF in 12 months before enrolment and will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio. Minimum follow-up will be 1 year. The primary endpoint is the change in QoL as measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Secondary endpoints are the number of HF hospital admissions and changes in health status assessed by EQ-5D-5L questionnaire including healt