Predicting and mapping land cover/land use changes in Erbil /Iraq using CA-Markov synergy model

One of the most dynamic components of the environment is land use land cover (LULC), which have been changing remarkably since after the industrial revolution at various scales. Frequent monitoring and quantifying LULC change dynamics provide a better understanding of the function and health of ecosystems. This study aimed at modelling the future changes of LULC for the Erbil governorate in the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI) using the synergy Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model. For this aim, three consecutive-year Landsat imagery (i.e., 1988, 2002, and 2017) were classified using the Maximum Likelihood Classifier. From the classification, three LULC maps with several class categories were generated, and then change-detection analysis was executed. Using the classified (1988–2002) and (2002–2017) LULC maps in the hybrid model, LULC maps for 2017 and 2050 were modelled respectively. The model output (modelled 2017) was validated with the classified 2017 LULC map. The accuracy of agreements between the classified and the modelled maps were Kno = 0.8339, Klocation = 0.8222, Kstandard = 0.7491, respectively. Future predictions demonstrate between 2017 and 2050, built-up land, agricultural land, plantation, dense vegetation and water body will increase by 173.7% (from 424.1 to 1160.8 km2), 79.5% (from 230 to 412.9 km2), 70.2% (from 70.2 to 119.5 km2), 48.9% (from 367.2 to 546.9 km2) and 132.7% (from 10.7 to 24.9 km2), respectively. In contrast, sparse vegetation, barren land will decrease by 9.7% (2274.6 to 2052.8 km2), 18.4% (from 9463.9-7721 km2), respectively. The output of this study is invaluable for environmental scientists, conservation biologists, nature-related NGOs, decision-makers, and urban planners

Key Biodiversity Areas: Rapid assessment of birds in Kurdistan, northern Iraq

Volume: 3Start Page: 187End Page: 20

Past and future prediction of land cover land use change based on earth observation data by the CA–Markov model: a case study from Duhok governorate, Iraq

Understanding land use land cover change (LULCC) dynamics is crucial for sustaining the integrity of structure and function of ecosystems. As such, frequent measuring and monitoring of LULCC are necessary. Over the last four decades, Duhok governorate in the north of Iraq has undergone sweeping changes caused mainly by anthropogenic factors (e.g. population growth). This study used geospatial techniques and the synergy Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov approach to quantify past, current and model the future changes of LULC. The maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) was employed to conduct classification for three consecutive-year Landsat imagery (i.e. 1988, 2008 and 2017). From the classified imageries, three LULC maps with several classes were created and then, change detection analysis was implied. The classified (1988–2008) and (2008–2017) LULC maps were incorporated into the hybrid model to predict LULC maps for 2017 and 2060, respectively. The classified 2017 LULC maps were used as a reference to validate the model output for 2017. Relatively high accuracy agreements were achieved between the classified and the modelled maps (Kno= 0.8315, Klocation= 0.8267, Kstandard = 0.7978). The model classes estimated for 2060 compared to the classified 2017 LULC classes revealed that dense forest, sparse forest, agricultural land and barren area would decrease by −26.26% (from 327.08 to 241.08 km 2), −0.76% (from 2372.29 to 2355.82 km 2), −5.86% (from 973.21 to 916.27 km 2) and −10.03% (from 2918.9–2626.19 km 2), respectively. In contrast, the urban area would significantly increase by 271.19%, (from 161.99 to 602.19.8 km 2). Dense forest in Duhok governorate has seen remarkable decline from 1988 to 2017, and future predictions demonstrated that the declining trend would continue. Dense forest would predominantly convert to sparse forest and barren areas, suggesting forest thinning and clearing. Urban areas were the most dynamic cover types that increased significantly between 1998 and 2017. This trend would continue to increase from 2.36% (2017) to 8.76% (2060). Urbanization would be predominantly at the cost of agricultural land and barren area. Information on spatiotemporal dynamics of LULCC has been proved as an effective measure for maintaining the integrity of the ecosystem components through sustainable planning and management actions. </p

Modeling the distribution of the Near Eastern fire salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata) and Kurdistan newt (Neurergus derjugini) under current and future climate conditions in Iraq

Among the amphibians, the most sensitive group to climate change are salamanders (e.g., Salamandra infraimmaculata and Neurergus derjugini). In Iraq, these species are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) RED List (2020). Apart from their important role in forest ecosystems stability and integrity, they are useful indicators for ecosystems functions. These species occur only in the mountain forests of the northeast, the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI), and information on their distributions is limited and poorly understood. Using the maximum entropy modeling and geospatial techniques, we aimed to: (i) map current distributions of the two species, and predict potential habitat distributions; (ii) model impact of the future climate change on their distributions; (iii) map overlapping habitat range for the species; and (iv) determine the main environmental variables shaping their distributions. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.62070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the overall expansion magnitude of the habitat for the species would be smaller than the contraction magnitude. For S. infraimmaculata and N. derjugini, the habitat would contract by 1751.58 km2 (3.42%) and 2127.22 km2 (4.16%), whereas expand only 226.77 km2 (0.44%) and 1877.49 km2 (3.67%), respectively. Climate change would significantly reduce the habitat ranges of the two species in Iraq. Habitat reduction for S. infraimmaculata would be more than N. derjugini. The potential distribution of the species would be toward the mountain forests of the east mainly and southeast of the KRI. Conservation actions should concentrate on the mountain forests (mixed oak) by establishing national parks, protected areas, and developing forest management policy. Current emphasis for conservation priority should focus specifically on areas where the species overlap by 1583.71 km2 (3.09%). Our study provides baseline information for further investigation of the mountain forest ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation actions in Iraq.</p

Modelling habitat suitability for the breeding Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) in the Kurdistan region of Iraq

The Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) is an endangered species with a globally declining population. Information on the current habitat distribution and potential suitable habitat for this ecologically important species will provide invaluable insight into conservation planning and the species’ future status as climate changes. This is specifically important for areas where there are little or no reported data on the status of the Egyptian Vulture. We used 13 years nest-site records (n = 69) together with relevant environmental variables to understand the known distribution and predict potential habitat distribution of the Egyptian Vulture in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. A machine learning model, maximum entropy, was used to generate various model options, from which the best model was selected based on the Akaike information criterion (AICc) statistical indicators. The model showed reasonably good discriminative ability using both True Skill Statistics TSS = 0.722 and Area under the Curve (AUC) = 0.825 metrics. The Egyptian Vultures in Iraq mainly breed in territories at elevations between 1000 and 3300 m above sea level. This suggests that the species shows preference to areas distant from human settlements likely due to decreased disturbance and that the species may rely on alternative/complementary food sources (e.g. wild goat and boar). The total area of the study site is approximately 51,069 km2, out of which around 25% (12,767 km2) is predicted as suitable breeding habitat for the Egyptian Vulture. The output of this study provides useful baseline information for conservation actions and plans

FIGURE 7. Eidinemacheilus proudlovei, FSJF 3542 in Eidinemacheilus proudlovei, a new subterranean loach from Iraqi Kurdistan (Teleostei; Nemacheilidae)

FIGURE 7. Eidinemacheilus proudlovei, FSJF 3542, paratype, 48.5 SL; Iraqi Kurdistan: Ephemeral spring in Tabeen Gorge; E. smithi, FSJF 3541, 34 mm SL; Iran: Natural well-like opening being the origin of the stream Kay-e-Ru; bony swim bladder capsule, dorsal, ventral, posterior and anterior views

FIGURE 5. Eidinemacheilus proudlovei, FSJF 3542 in Eidinemacheilus proudlovei, a new subterranean loach from Iraqi Kurdistan (Teleostei; Nemacheilidae)

FIGURE 5. Eidinemacheilus proudlovei, FSJF 3542, paratype, 48.5 SL; right pectoral fin, dorsal view showing many small unculi; Iraqi Kurdistan: Ephemeral spring in Tabeen Gorge