Economic Assessment of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in Washington and Benton Counties in Arkansas

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) presents a substantial economic risk to the poultry industry. Domesticated fowl contract HPAI initially through exposure, direct or indirect with migratory waterfowl and outbreaks can result in significant economic losses to growers and the poultry industry at large. A HPAI outbreak occurred in Minnesota and Iowa and spread across over 13 other states in 2014 and 2015. This caused an estimated $1.6 billion in losses (CDC, 2016) and led to shortages of eggs and turkeys together with elevated prices (Anni et al. 2005). Even small outbreaks of HPAI inflict substantial damages as USDA-APHIS guidelines necessitate a 10-km radius quarantine area and possible cull from the site of infection. Previous literature evaluates economic damages from AI predominantly using case studies of past outbreaks, but a priori estimation of potential economic losses resulting from HPAI outbreaks in critical industry regions has been given less attention. We assess economic damages to poultry growers, companies, and the federal government resulting from a simulated HPAI outbreaks across spatially specific poultry house locations in the high-value poultry-growing region of Washington and Benton counties in Arkansas. With a simulation model built using Statistical Analysis System (SAS 9.4), we assigned poultry operation types (Broilers, Breeders, Pullets, Turkeys, and Layers) to facilities using discrete non-uniform probabilities from known county-level poultry type distributions reported by USDA. A single facility is randomly infected with HPAI, and houses within the quarantine zone are identified based on a distance matrix calculated in a GIS (ArcGIS for Desktop 10.4). The value of economic damages is determined using mean bird values by poultry type on the lifecycle of the birds. Because the total damages and number of impacted houses depend on house types and the location of the initial infection, we ran the model one thousand times with the location of infection randomly to account for spatial variability. Results show that on average, an infection in Benton or Washington County, impacts 162 poultry houses, including Broiler (119), Pullet (7), Breeder (17), Brown Layer (2), Turkey (16), and White Layer (1) houses, the federal government through indemnity payments incurs the greatest economic losses ($57.4 million), while poultry companies and grower incur $17.3 and$3.1 million, respectively, in opportunity costs from quarantine time

Estudio de la esterilización de Cales noacki How (hym. aphelinidae), por el empleo de plaguicidas

Se ha efectuado un estudio con diversos plaguicidas, para ver su posible incidencia en la reproducción de Cales noacki How, en cuanto a su acción esterilizante en los adultos emergidos de las ninfas tratadas. Los fitofármacos ensayados han originado una mortalidad inferior al 60% sobre el estado ninfal de C. noacki. De los 7 plaguicidas ensayados, el etion y dimetoato parece ser que afectan en cierta medida el potencial reproductor de los adultos emergidos del himenóptero, el primero reduciendo la descendencia y el segundo impidiéndola, lo que equivale a la esterilización de los adultos de C. noacki por el dimetoato. El resto de substancias ensayadas no han manifestado un efecto significativo sobre el potencial reproductor de C. noacki emergidos de las ninfas tratada

Incidencia del regulador de crecimiento de insectos NNI-750 sobre estados inmaduros de Encarsia formosa Gahan y Cales noacki Howard (Hym.: Aphelinidae)

Se ha efectuado un estudio de los efectos del regulador del crecimiento NNI-750 (Buprofezin), a las dosis de 125 y 250 ppm, sobre estados inmaduros de Encarsia formosa Gahan y Cales noacki How. Según este estudio y los criterios de nocividad del grupo de trabajo de la O.I.L.B. "Pesticides and Beneficial Arthropods", el NNI-750 es inocuo o de toxicidad nula para estados inmaduros de E. formosa y C. noacki, no produciendo tampoco esterilización sobre dichos insectos útiles. Las cualidades de este plaguicida biológico sobre los dos insectos útiles le hacen ser un producto interesante para utilizar en todo programa de lucha dirigida ó integrada

Psychometric Properties of the 'Alcohol Consumption Consequences Evaluation' (ACCE) Scale for Young Spanish University Students

Instruments that evaluate alcohol use consequences among young people do not consider the intensive alcohol consumption pattern that is so characteristic during these ages. Some of these instruments are even ineffective in the Spanish population. Hence the interest in developing an instrument more adapted to the reality of our young people. A total of 601 university students (35.9% male and 64.1% female) from 18 to 20 years old were recruited. All of them answered a total of 77 items obtained from the review of both the scientific literature and the different scales used to measure consequences derived from alcohol consumption. In addition, they completed the AUDIT and the Timeline Followback for self-reported consumption. The data were analyzed using factor analysis and a two-parameter logistic model. ROC curve analysis was used to establish cut-off points for different risk levels of alcohol consumption distinguishing between genders. The final 43-item scale Alcohol Consumption Consequences Evaluation (ACCE) (Evaluación de Consecuencias derivadas del Consumo de Alcohol [ECCA]) shows adequate psychometric properties: α = 0.94; unidimensionality through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) (26.25% of explained variance) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) (RMSEA = 0.39; TLI and CFI > 0.90). In addition, ROC analyses, both at a global scale and distinguishing between genders, were able to characterize consumers with different levels of risk, obtaining areas under the curve between 0.82 and 0.88. A scale has been obtained that enables the establishment of cut-off points to distinguish between the consequences of low, moderate and high risk alcohol consumption. The clinical utility of the ACCE is highlighted by using one single instrument to perform the screening of a possible alcohol risk consumption as well as identifying the consequences that need to be worked on in the evaluated person's or group's intervention

Utilidad del Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) en el análisis del binge drinking en estudiantes universitarios

Background: The increasingly precise conceptualization of Binge Drinking (BD), along with the rising incidence of this pattern of intake amongst young people, make it necessary to review the usefulness of instruments used to detect it. Little evidence exists regarding effectiveness of the AUDIT, AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 in the detection of BD. This study evaluates their utility in a sample of university students, revealing the most appropriate cut-off points for each sex. Methods: All students self-administered the AUDIT and completed a self-report of their alcohol consumption. A Two-step cluster analysis differentiated 5 groups of BD in terms of: the quantity consumed, the frequency of BD over the past six months and gender. A ROC curve adjusted cut-off points for each case. Results: 862 university students (18-19 years-old/59.5% female), 424 (49.2%) from Valencia and 438 (50.8%) from Madrid, had cut-off points of 4 in AUDIT and 3 in AUDIT-C as a better fi t. In all cases, the best classifi er was AUDIT-C. Neither version properly classifi es students with varying degrees of BD. Conclusions: All versions differentiate BD from non-BD, but none are able to differentiate between types of BDAntecedentes: la operacionalización cada vez más precisa del Binge Drinking (BD), unido a su elevada prevalencia entre los jóvenes, hace necesario revisar la utilidad de los instrumentos utilizados para detectarlo. Existe poca evidencia de la efi cacia del AU-DIT y AUDIT-C en la detección del BD. Este artículo evalúa su utilidad en una muestra de universitarios, identifi cando los puntos de corte más adecuados, en función del sexo. Método: se cumplimentó el AUDIT y un autoregistro de consumo de alcohol. Un análisis de conglomerados en dos fases diferenció 5 grupos de BD en función de: cantidad consumida, frecuencia de realización en los últimos seis meses y género. Con curvas ROC se ajustaron los puntos de corte para cada caso. Resultados: 862 universitarios (18-19 años/59,5% mujeres), 424 (49,2%) de Valencia y 438 (50,8%) de Madrid obtuvieron puntos de corte de 4 en AUDIT y 3 en AUDIT-C como mejor ajuste. En todos los casos el mejor clasifi cador de BD fue el AUDIT-C. Ninguna versión clasifi ca adecuadamente a estudiantes con diferente intensidad de BD. Conclusiones: ambas versiones diferencian BD de noBD, pero ninguna de ellas permite distinguir entre tipos de BDThis work was supported by the Ministerio de Sanidad y Política Social (Ministry for Health and Social Policy) [PND2008- 056] and [SPI/3462/2010]S

Noticias históricas de la Noble y Leal Villa de Tavira de Durango

Forma colección facticia con: Memoria acerca del promontorio, del salto y de la ciudad OlarsoDigitalización. Vitoria-Gasteiz : Archivos y Bibliotecas, Abril 199

Evaluación de Consecuencias derivadas del Consumo de Alcohol (ECCA)

Escala de evaluación de consecuencias derivadas derivadas del consumo de alcoho