Are large randomised controlled trials in severe sepsis and septic shock statistically disadvantaged by repeated inadvertent underestimates of required sample size?

OBJECTIVES: We sought to understand why randomised controlled trials in septic shock have failed to demonstrate effectiveness in the face of improving overall outcomes for patients and seemingly promising results of early phase trials of interventions. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective analysis of large critical care trials of severe sepsis and septic shock. Data were collected from the primary trial manuscripts, prepublished statistical plans or by direct communication with corresponding authors. SETTING: Critical care randomised control trials in severe sepsis and septic shock. PARTICIPANTS: 14 619 patients randomised in 13 trials published between 2005 and 2015, enrolling greater than 500 patients and powered to a primary outcome of mortality. INTERVENTION: Multiple interventions including the evaluation of treatment strategies and novel therapeutics. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Our primary outcome measure was the difference between the anticipated and actual control arm mortality. Secondary analysis examined the actual effect size and the anticipated effect size employed in sample size calculation. RESULTS: In this post hoc analysis of 13 trials with 14 619 patients randomised, we highlight a global tendency to overestimate control arm mortality in estimating sample size (absolute difference 9.8%, 95% CI -14.7% to -5.0%, p<0.001). When we compared anticipated and actual effect size of a treatment, there was also a substantial overestimation in proposed values (absolute difference 7.4%, 95% CI -9.0% to -5.8%, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: An interpretation of our results is that trials are consistently underpowered in the planning phase by employing erroneous variables to calculate a satisfactory sample size. Our analysis cannot establish if, given a larger sample size, a trial would have had a positive result. It is disappointing so many promising phase II results have not translated into durable phase III outcomes. It is possible that our current framework has biased us towards discounting potentially life-saving treatments

A telegeriatric service in a small rural hospital: A case study and cost analysis

Introduction Small hospitals in rural areas usually have an insufficient caseload of frail old people to justify the regular presence of a geriatrician. This study examined the costs of providing a telegeriatric service by videoconference in a rural hospital, compared to the costs of a visiting geriatrician that travels to undertake in-person consultations. Methods A cost analysis was undertaken to compare the costs of the telegeriatric service model with the costs of a visiting geriatrician service model. A recently established telegeriatric service at Warwick Hospital was used as a case study. Results In the base case model (assuming four patients per round and a round-trip travel distance of 312 kilometres), an estimated AUD$131 per patient consultation can be saved in favour of the telegeriatric service model. Key drivers of costs are the number of patients per round and the travel distance and time in the visiting geriatrician model. At a workload of four patients per round, it is less expensive to conduct a telegeriatric service than a visiting geriatrician service when the round-trip travel time exceeds 76 minutes. Discussion Even under quite conservative assumptions, a telegeriatric service offers an economically feasible approach to the delivery of specialist geriatric assessment in rural and remote settings

Full Genome Characterization of the Culicoides-Borne Marsupial Orbiviruses: Wallal Virus, Mudjinbarry Virus and Warrego Viruses

Viruses belonging to the species Wallal virus and Warrego virus of the genus Orbivirus were identified as causative agents of blindness in marsupials in Australia during 1994/5. Recent comparisons of nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) sequences have provided a basis for the grouping and classification of orbivirus isolates. However, full-genome sequence data are not available for representatives of all Orbivirus species. We report full-genome sequence data for three additional orbiviruses: Wallal virus (WALV); Mudjinabarry virus (MUDV) and Warrego virus (WARV). Comparisons of conserved polymerase (Pol), sub-core-shell 'T2' and core-surface 'T13' proteins show that these viruses group with other Culicoides borne orbiviruses, clustering with Eubenangee virus (EUBV), another orbivirus infecting marsupials. WARV shares <70% aa identity in all three conserved proteins (Pol, T2 and T13) with other orbiviruses, consistent with its classification within a distinct Orbivirus species. Although WALV and MUDV share <72.86%/67.93% aa/nt identity with other orbiviruses in Pol, T2 and T13, they share >99%/90% aa/nt identities with each other (consistent with membership of the same virus species - Wallal virus). However, WALV and MUDV share <68% aa identity in their larger outer capsid protein VP2(OC1), consistent with membership of different serotypes within the species - WALV-1 and WALV-2 respectively

Are BRCA1- and BRCA2-related breast cancers associated with increased mortality?

There has been contradictory evidence as to whether BRCA1 associated breast cancers have a poorer prognosis than non-BRCA1 cancers. In this issue of Breast Cancer Research Robson and colleagues provide further evidence for poorer survival in BRCA1 carriers and show that it could be attributed to failure to treat small node-negative grade 3 breast cancers with chemotherapy. There still remains little evidence for a survival difference for BRCA2 related breast cancers. Although the high contralateral breast cancer risk is confirmed by this study there is no real evidence for an increase in ipsilateral recurrence or new primary breast cancers in mutation carriers up to the 10-year point

Simulation of Phenol Adsorption in a Packed Bed Column

Water pollution is a very persistent problem. The intensive throwing up of different toxic substances without control constitutes a real danger for humanity. Phenolic compounds are common contaminants in wastewater, generated by petroleum and petrochemical, coal conversion and phenol producing industries. The phenols are considered as priority pollutants since they are harmful to organisms at low concentrations because of their potential harm to human health. United State Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) regulations call for lowering phenol content in wastewaterto less 1 mgL-1 before discharging. This study focusses on the feasibility of using activated carbon to remove phenol from waste water in industry. Simulation by Aspen Adsorption is conducted to investigate the feasibility. Several sensitivity analyses such as changing the parameters which affected the rate of adsorption are discussed. Besides that, it is found that the scaling up of the column is not practicable in industry

Haptoglobin Phenotype, Preeclampsia Risk and the Efficacy of Vitamin C and E Supplementation to Prevent Preeclampsia in a Racially Diverse Population

Haptoglobin's (Hp) antioxidant and pro-angiogenic properties differ between the 1-1, 2-1, and 2-2 phenotypes. Hp phenotype affects cardiovascular disease risk and treatment response to antioxidant vitamins in some non-pregnant populations. We previously demonstrated that preeclampsia risk was doubled in white Hp 2-1 women, compared to Hp 1-1 women. Our objectives were to determine whether we could reproduce this finding in a larger cohort, and to determine whether Hp phenotype influences lack of efficacy of antioxidant vitamins in preventing preeclampsia and serious complications of pregnancy-associated hypertension (PAH). This is a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial in which 10,154 low-risk women received daily vitamin C and E, or placebo, from 9-16 weeks gestation until delivery. Hp phenotype was determined in the study prediction cohort (n = 2,393) and a case-control cohort (703 cases, 1,406 controls). The primary outcome was severe PAH, or mild or severe PAH with elevated liver enzymes, elevated serum creatinine, thrombocytopenia, eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, medically indicated preterm birth or perinatal death. Preeclampsia was a secondary outcome. Odds ratios were estimated by logistic regression. Sampling weights were used to reduce bias from an overrepresentation of women with preeclampsia or the primary outcome. There was no relationship between Hp phenotype and the primary outcome or preeclampsia in Hispanic, white/other or black women. Vitamin supplementation did not reduce the risk of the primary outcome or preeclampsia in women of any phenotype. Supplementation increased preeclampsia risk (odds ratio 3.30; 95% confidence interval 1.61-6.82, p<0.01) in Hispanic Hp 2-2 women. Hp phenotype does not influence preeclampsia risk, or identify a subset of women who may benefit from vitamin C and E supplementation to prevent preeclampsia

Six-Month Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Presenting for Antiretroviral Therapy with Unexplained Weight Loss, Chronic Fever or Chronic Diarrhea in Malawi.

In sub-Saharan Africa, early mortality is high following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We investigated 6-month outcomes and factors associated with mortality in HIV-infected adults being assessed for ART initiation and presenting with weight loss, chronic fever or diarrhea, and with negative TB sputum microscopy

Macrophage-derived human resistin is induced in multiple helminth infections and promotes inflammatory monocytes and increased parasite burden.

Parasitic helminth infections can be associated with lifelong morbidity such as immune-mediated organ failure. A better understanding of the host immune response to helminths could provide new avenues to promote parasite clearance and/or alleviate infection-associated morbidity. Murine resistin-like molecules (RELM) exhibit pleiotropic functions following helminth infection including modulating the host immune response; however, the relevance of human RELM proteins in helminth infection is unknown. To examine the function of human resistin (hResistin), we utilized transgenic mice expressing the human resistin gene (hRetnTg+). Following infection with the helminth Nippostrongylus brasiliensis (Nb), hResistin expression was significantly upregulated in infected tissue. Compared to control hRetnTg- mice, hRetnTg+ mice suffered from exacerbated Nb-induced inflammation characterized by weight loss and increased infiltration of inflammatory monocytes in the lung, along with elevated Nb egg burdens and delayed parasite expulsion. Genome-wide transcriptional profiling of the infected tissue revealed that hResistin promoted expression of proinflammatory cytokines and genes downstream of toll-like receptor signaling. Moreover, hResistin preferentially bound lung monocytes, and exogenous treatment of mice with recombinant hResistin promoted monocyte recruitment and proinflammatory cytokine expression. In human studies, increased serum resistin was associated with higher parasite load in individuals infected with soil-transmitted helminths or filarial nematode Wuchereria bancrofti, and was positively correlated with proinflammatory cytokines. Together, these studies identify human resistin as a detrimental factor induced by multiple helminth infections, where it promotes proinflammatory cytokines and impedes parasite clearance. Targeting the resistin/proinflammatory cytokine immune axis may provide new diagnostic or treatment strategies for helminth infection and associated immune-mediated pathology

The Re-Emergence of Percutaneous Fasciotomy in the Management of Dupuytren’s Disease

Dupuytren’s disease is a common condition. Its management has gradually evolved but still remains a source of much controversy. Recently there has been a resurgence in the popularity of percutaneous needle fasciotomy. It is a simple method that uses a hypodermic needle as a scalpel blade. It is usually performed in the out-patient setting under local anaesthesia without a tourniquet. It has few complications and allows almost immediate return to work with few restrictions

Umatilla Virus Genome Sequencing and Phylogenetic Analysis: Identification of Stretch Lagoon Orbivirus as a New Member of the Umatilla virus Species

The genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae, includes 22 species of viruses with genomes composed of ten segments of linear dsRNA that are transmitted between their vertebrate hosts by insects or ticks, or with no identified vectors. Full-genome sequence data are available for representative isolates of the insect borne mammalian orbiviruses (including bluetongue virus), as well as a tick borne avian orbivirus (Great Island virus). However, no sequence data are as yet available for the mosquito borne avian orbiviruses