Financial market volatility: informative in predicting recessions

It is commonly agreed that the term spread and stock returns are useful in predicting recessions. We extend these empirical findings by examining interest rate and stock market volatility as additional recession indicators. Both risk-return analysis and the theory of investment under uncertainty provide a rationale for this extension. The results for the United States, Germany and Japan show that interest rate and stock return volatility contribute significantly to the forecasting of future recessions. This holds in particular for short term predictions.business cycles; stock market volatility; interest rate volatility; probit model

What determines euro area bank CDS spreads ?

This paper decomposes the explained part of the CDS spread changes of 31 listed euro area banks according to various risk drivers. The choice of the credit risk drivers is inspired by the Merton (1974) model. Individual CDS liquidity and other market and business variables are identified to complement the Merton model and are shown to play an important role in explaining credit spread changes. Our decomposition reveals, however, highly changing dynamics in the credit, liquidity, and business cycle and market wide components. This result is important since supervisors and monetary policy makers extract different signals from liquidity based CDS spread changes than from business cycle or credit risk based changes. For the recent financial crisis, we confirm that the steeply rising CDS spreads are due to increased credit risk. However, individual CDS liquidity and market wide liquidity premia played a dominant role. In the period before the start of the crisis, our model and its decomposition suggest that credit risk was not correctly priced, a finding which was correctly observed by e.g. the International Monetary Fundcredit default spreads, credit risk, financial crisis, financial sector, liquidity premia, structural model

Physiology-based IVIVE predictions of tramadol from in vitro metabolism data

To predict the tramadol in vivo pharmacokinetics in adults by using in vitro metabolism data and an in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE)-linked physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and simulation approach (SimcypA (R)). Tramadol metabolism data was gathered using metabolite formation in human liver microsomes (HLM) and recombinant enzyme systems (rCYP). Hepatic intrinsic clearance (CLint(H)) was (i) estimated from HLM corrected for specific CYP450 contributions from a chemical inhibition assay (model 1); (ii) obtained in rCYP and corrected for specific CYP450 contributions by study-specific intersystem extrapolation factor (ISEF) values (model 2); and (iii) scaled back from in vivo observed clearance values (model 3). The model-predicted clearances of these three models were evaluated against observed clearance values in terms of relative difference of their geometric means, the fold difference of their coefficients of variation, and relative CYP2D6 contribution. Model 1 underpredicted, while model 2 overpredicted the total tramadol clearance by -27 and +22%, respectively. The CYP2D6 contribution was underestimated in both models 1 and 2. Also, the variability on the clearance of those models was slightly underpredicted. Additionally, blood-to-plasma ratio and hepatic uptake factor were identified as most influential factors in the prediction of the hepatic clearance using a sensitivity analysis. IVIVE-PBPK proved to be a useful tool in combining tramadol's low turnover in vitro metabolism data with system-specific physiological information to come up with reliable PK predictions in adults

Systemic availability and metabolism of colonic-derived short-chain fatty acids in healthy subjects: a stable isotope study

The short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), acetate, propionate and butyrate, are bacterial metabolites that mediate the interaction between the diet, the microbiota and the host. In the present study, the systemic availability of SCFAs and their incorporation into biologically relevant molecules was quantified. Known amounts of 13C-labelled acetate, propionate and butyrate were introduced in the colon of 12 healthy subjects using colon delivery capsules and plasma levels of 13C-SCFAs 13C-glucose, 13C-cholesterol and 13C-fatty acids were measured. The butyrate-producing capacity of the intestinal microbiota was also quantified. Systemic availability of colonic-administered acetate, propionate and butyrate was 36%, 9% and 2%, respectively. Conversion of acetate into butyrate (24%) was the most prevalent interconversion by the colonic microbiota and was not related to the butyrate-producing capacity in the faecal samples. Less than 1% of administered acetate was incorporated into cholesterol and <15% in fatty acids. On average, 6% of colonic propionate was incorporated into glucose. The SCFAs were mainly excreted via the lungs after oxidation to 13CO2, whereas less than 0.05% of the SCFAs were excreted into urine. These results will allow future evaluation and quantification of SCFA production from 13C-labelled fibres in the human colon by measurement of 13C-labelled SCFA concentrations in blood

NuSAP, a novel microtubule-associated protein involved in mitotic spindle organization

Here, we report on the identification of nucleolar spindle–associated protein (NuSAP), a novel 55-kD vertebrate protein with selective expression in proliferating cells. Its mRNA and protein levels peak at the transition of G2 to mitosis and abruptly decline after cell division. Microscopic analysis of both fixed and live mammalian cells showed that NuSAP is primarily nucleolar in interphase, and localizes prominently to central spindle microtubules during mitosis. Direct interaction of NuSAP with microtubules was demonstrated in vitro. Overexpression of NuSAP caused profound bundling of cytoplasmic microtubules in interphase cells, and this relied on a COOH-terminal microtubule-binding domain. In contrast, depletion of NuSAP by RNA interference resulted in aberrant mitotic spindles, defective chromosome segregation, and cytokinesis. In addition, many NuSAP-depleted interphase cells had deformed nuclei. Both overexpression and knockdown of NuSAP impaired cell proliferation. These results suggest a crucial role for NuSAP in spindle microtubule organization

ATP13A3 is a major component of the enigmatic mammalian polyamine transport system

Polyamines, such as putrescine, spermidine, and spermine, are physiologically important polycations, but the transporters responsible for their uptake in mammalian cells remain poorly characterized. Here, we reveal a new component of the mammalian polyamine transport system using CHO-MG cells, a widely used model to study alternative polyamine uptake routes and characterize polyamine transport inhibitors for therapy. CHO-MG cells present polyamine uptake deficiency and resistance to a toxic polyamine biosynthesis inhibitor methylglyoxal bis-(guanylhydrazone) (MGBG), but the molecular defects responsible for these cellular characteristics remain unknown. By genome sequencing of CHO-MG cells, we identified mutations in an unexplored gene, ATP13A3, and found disturbed mRNA and protein expression. ATP13A3 encodes for an orphan P5B-ATPase (ATP13A3), a P-type transport ATPase that represents a candidate polyamine transporter. Interestingly, ATP13A3 complemented the putrescine transport deficiency and MGBG resistance of CHO-MG cells, whereas its knockdown in WT cells induced a CHO-MG phenotype demonstrated as a decrease in putrescine uptake and MGBG sensitivity. Taken together, our findings identify ATP13A3, which has been previously genetically linked with pulmonary arterial hypertension, as a major component of the mammalian polyamine transport system that confers sensitivity to MGBG