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Risk perceptions & decision-making in the water industry

© 2019 Anna KosovacWater shortage issues as a result of drought and population increases have been documented frequently in Australia. Decisions that planners and practitioners make in the future water security arena are imperative in ensuring the viability of population growth and agriculture in Australia. This research considers the decision-making of these practitioners to understand whether these decisions are made objectively, or have bias attached to them. This transparency is vital in considering that these individuals effectively make decisions using public funds, on behalf of many, including future generations. Much of decision-making in the water sector is predominantly centred on risk assessment outcomes. This applies particularly in the case of options assessments, where many differing proposals are put forward to answer a problem or achieve a particular strategy. The water sector in Melbourne, Australia was assessed in detail in this study to shed light on these approaches. Current risk assessment practices within the water sector in Melbourne were analysed, across four water authorities. All of their risk approaches are similar in nature, as they are required to adhere to the standard ISO31000, therefore taking on a technical approach in risk measurement by way of risk matrices. This research considered these risk practices to understand whether they are effective in ensuring an objective outcome (i.e. regardless of the practitioner undertaking the risk assessment, the risk rating- low, medium, high or extreme- stays the same.) In this study, 77 participants were surveyed from four Melbourne water authorities. They were provided with seven fictional water projects (four that are familiar, three that are unfamiliar) and asked to undertake a risk assessment upon each. The scores obtained varied drastically between individuals, not only across all authorities but also amongst those assessors within each organisation. Results indicate that the current risk assessment practices employed in Melbourne water authorities cannot be considered to be objective. To understand the variation in the scores between decision-makers, other risk theories were considered. The psychological theory of risk (also known as Cognitive Bias theory) was tested, along with the Cultural theory of risk. The psychological approach required psychometric testing across three of the fictional projects. Results show that dread had a significant effect across all projects tested. Other factors such as ‘dread related to perceived fatal risk’ and a ‘fear of the unknown’ were found to be statistically significant in explaining the risk score for the one project only: using radiation in the treatment of water. The Cultural theory of risk considers whether the risk scores obtained were due to the worldview of the risk assessors undertaking the measurement. Each respondent responded to a cultural cognition survey which placed them in one of four worldviews: hierarchist, egalitarian, individualist or fatalist. In regressing these worldviews to risk scores, it was found that no statistically significant relationship existed between the two. Risk scores varied drastically between the respondents, indicating little objectivity, however the psychological theory of risk sheds light on the biases of risk assessors when undertaking these assessments, and especially the effect of dread in imagined scenarios. This research is unique in that the study is undertaken comparing risk matrix scores through to psychological attributes and cultural worldviews in the water sector, a sector fraught with preconceived notions of risk. Water authorities can take heed of these findings in ensuring they understand the bias intrinsic to their risk measurement approaches. This can help to guarantee that they are able to effectively plan for future problems of population growth and climate change in a way that is cognisant of personal bias

Water Experts’ Perception of Risk for New and Unfamiliar Water Projects

In the context of a changing urban environment and increasing demand due to population growth, alternative water sources must be explored in order to create future water security. Risk assessments play a pivotal role in the take-up of new and unfamiliar water projects, acting as a decision-making tool for business cases. Perceptions of risk ultimately drive risk assessment processes, therefore providing insight into understanding projects that proceed and those that do not. Yet there is limited information on the risk perceptions water professionals have of new and unfamiliar water projects. In this study, 77 water professionals were surveyed from across the Melbourne metropolitan water industry to examine risk perceptions over a range of different, unfamiliar water projects. The qualitative data was thematically analysed, resulting in a number of risk perception factors for each hypothetical project. Risk factors that recurred most frequently are those that relate to community backlash and to the reputation of the organisation. These social risk perceptions occurred more frequently than other more technical risks, such as operational risks and process-related risks. These results were at odds with the existing literature assessing risk perceptions of business-as-usual projects, which presented cost as the key risk attribute. This study sheds light on the perceived nature of new and unfamiliar processes in the water sector, providing an understanding that public perceptions do matter to experts involved in water infrastructure decision-making

Long-term follow-up of incisor root resorptions after correction of adjacent impacted and ectopically positioned maxillary canines

Överkäkshörntänderna erumperar normalt mellan 11 till 13 års ålder. Dessa kan dock bli retinerade och orsaka rotresorption på intilliggande incisiver. Konventionell röntgen upptäcker rotresorption i 12.5 procent av fallen, medan datortomografiundersökning (CT) upptäcker resorptioner i ungefär 50 procent av fallen. En huvudsaklig etiologisk faktor till resorptionerna är fysisk kontakt mellan den retinerade överkäkshörntanden och incisivens rot. Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka rotresorberade överkäksincisivers prognos efter förflyttning av intilliggande överkäkshörntänder. Studien inkluderade 22 patienter med totalt 31 rotresorberade överkäksincisiver. Alla patienter hade genomgått ortodontisk behandling för att förflytta de retinerade överkäkshörntänderna. Intraoral röntgen eller CT-undersökning genomfördes direkt efter avslutad behandling (T1). Uppföljning med CT genomfördes ett antal år efter avslutad behandling (T2). Alla röntgenologiska bilder från T2 jämfördes med bilderna från T1. Rotresorptionerna bedömdes avseende lokalisering och resorptionsgrad. Graden av resorption indelades i mild, måttlig och grav. Utvecklingen av resorptionerna mellan T1 och T2 bedömdes som antingen avstannad, progredierad eller minskad. Resultatet visar att 54.8 procent av resorptionerna var avstannade vid T2 jämfört med T1, 22.6 procent av resorptionerna hade progredierat, 6.5 procent av resorptionerna hade minskat och 16.1 procent av de rotresorberade incisiverna var extraherade vid T2. Alla extraherade incisiver var diagnostiserade med grav rotresorption. Sammanfattningsvis visar aktuella resultat att; (1) ungefär 50 procent av rotresorptionerna avstannade på lång sikt, (2) ungefär 20 procent av resorptionerna progredierade, (3) minskning var ovanlig och (4) incisiver med grava resorptioner direkt efter korrektion av de retinerade överkäkshörntänderna hade en dålig långtidsprognos i kombination med exempelvis trauma eller parodontit.Maxillary canines normally erupt at the age of 11 to 13. These can however become impacted and cause root resorptions of adjacent incisors. Conventional radiography reveals root resorptions in 12.5 per cent of cases. Computed tomography (CT) reveals root resorptions in about 50 per cent of cases. A main etiological factor is physical contact between the impacted maxillary canine and the incisor root. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the prognosis of maxillary incisors with root resorptions after correction of adjacent maxillary canines. The present study includes 22 patients with a total of 31 root resorbed maxillary incisors. All patients had undergone orthodontic treatment in order to correct the impacted maxillary canines. Intraoral radiographs or CT investigations were taken immediately post treatment (T1). Follow-up examinations with CT were performed a number of years later (T2). All radiographs taken at T2 were compared with the radiographs taken at T1. The root resorptions were examined with respect to localization and degree of resorption. The degree of resorption was graded as slight, moderate and severe. The change of resorptions between T1 and T2 was evaluated as unchanged, increased or decreased. The results show that 54.8 per cent of the resorptions were unchanged at T2 compared to T1, 22.6 per cent of the resorptions increased, 6.5 per cent of the resorptions decreased and 16.1 per cent of the root resorbed incisors were extracted at T2. All extracted teeth were diagnosed having severe root resorption. In summery, the present results showed that; (1) about 50 per cent of the incisor root resorptions arrested in the long-term, (2) about 20 per cent of the resorptions increased, (3) decrease of the resorptions were rare and (4) the incisors with severe resorptions immediately after the correction of the impacted canines had a bad long-term prognosis if combined with eg. trauma or periodontitis

Are We Objective? A Study into the Effectiveness of Risk Measurement in the Water Industry

A survey of 77 water practitioners within Melbourne, Australia, highlighted the lack of objectiveness within current risk scoring processes. Each water authority adopted similar processes, all of which adhere to the ISO31000 standard on Risk Management, and these were tested within this study to determine the “objective„ nature of technical risk assessments such as these. The outcome of the study indicated that current risk measurement approaches cannot be seen as objective. This is due to the high variation in risk scores between individuals, which indicates a level of subjectivity. The study confirms previous research that has been undertaken in assessing the effectiveness of risk matrices. This research is novel in its testing of the water sector’s risk measuring practices and may be of value to other industries that utilize similar risk approaches. This research posits whether this subjectivity is due to inherent bias of either a psychological or cultural risk nature that could produce the varied scores