Mapping Antarctic crevasses and their evolution with deep learning applied to satellite radar imagery

The fracturing of glaciers and ice shelves in Antarctica influences their dynamics and stability. Hence, data on the evolving distribution of crevasses are required to better understand the evolution of the ice sheet, though such data have traditionally been difficult and time-consuming to generate. Here, we present an automated method of mapping crevasses on grounded and floating ice with the application of convolutional neural networks to Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar backscatter data. We apply this method across Antarctica to images acquired between 2015 and 2022, producing a 7.5-year record of composite fracture maps at monthly intervals and 50 m spatial resolution and showing the distribution of crevasses around the majority of the ice sheet margin. We develop a method of quantifying changes to the density of ice shelf fractures using a time series of crevasse maps and show increases in crevassing on Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves over the observational period, with observed changes elsewhere in the Amundsen Sea dominated by the advection of existing crevasses. Using stress fields computed using the BISICLES ice sheet model, we show that much of this structural change has occurred in buttressing regions of these ice shelves, indicating a recent and ongoing link between fracturing and the developing dynamics of the Amundsen Sea sector.</p

Grounding line migration from 1992 to 2011 on Petermann Glacier, North-West Greenland

We use satellite radar interferometry to investigate changes in the location of the Petermann Glacier grounding line between 1992 and 2011. The grounding line location was identified in 17 quadruple-difference interferograms produced from European Remote Sensing (ERS)-1/2 data – the most extensive time series assembled at any ice stream to date. There is close agreement (20.6 cm) between vertical displacement of the floating ice shelf and relative tide amplitudes simulated by the Arctic Ocean Dynamics-based Tide Model 5 (AODTM-5) Arctic tide model. Over the 19 a period, the groundling line position varied by 470 m, on average, with a maximum range of 7.0 km observed on the north-east margin of the ice stream. Although the mean range (2.8 km) and variability (320 m) of the grounding line position is considerably lower if the unusually variable north-east sector is not considered, our observations demonstrate that large, isolated movements cannot be precluded, thus sparse temporal records should be analysed with care. The grounding line migration observed on Petermann Glacier is not significantly correlated with time (R2 = 0.22) despite reported ice shelf thinning and episodes of large iceberg calving, which suggests that unlike other ice streams, on the south-west margin of the Greenland ice sheet, Petermann Glacier is dynamically stable

Sub-Annual Calving Front Migration, Area Change and Calving Rates from Swath Mode CryoSat-2 Altimetry, on Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Mapping the time-variable calving front location (CFL) of Antarctic ice shelves is important for estimating the freshwater budget, as an indicator of changing ocean and structural conditions or as a precursor of dynamic instability. Here, we present a novel approach for deriving regular and consistent CFLs based on CryoSat-2 swath altimetry. The CFL detection is based on the premise that the shelf edge is usually characterized by a steep ice cliff, which is clearly resolved in the surface elevation data. Our method applies edge detection and vectorization of the sharp ice edge in gridded elevation data to generate vector shapefiles of the calving front. To show the feasibility of our approach, we derived a unique data set of ice-front positions for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) between 2011 and 2018 at a 200 m spatial resolution and biannual temporal frequency. The observed CFLs compare well with independently derived ice front positions from Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery and are used to calculate area change, advance rates, and iceberg calving rates. We measure an area increase of 810 ± 40 km2 a−1 for FRIS and calving rates of 9 ± 1 Gt a−1 and 7 ± 1 Gt a−1 for the Filchner and Ronne Ice Shelves, respectively, which is an order of magnitude smaller than their steady-state calving flux. Our findings demonstrate that the “elevation-edge” method is complementary to standard CFL detection techniques. Although at a reduced spatial resolution and less suitable for smaller glaciers in steep terrain, it enables to provide CFLs at regular intervals and to fill existing gaps in time and space. Moreover, the method simultaneously provides ice thickness, required for mass budget calculation, and has a degree of automation which removes the need for heavy manual intervention. In the future, altimetry data has the potential to deliver a systematic and continuous record of change in ice shelf calving front positions around Antarctica. This will greatly benefit the investigation of environmental forcing on ice flow and terminus dynamics by providing a valuable climate data record and improving our knowledge of the constraints for calving models and ice shelf freshwater budget

Climate and surface mass balance of coastal West Antarctica resolved by regional climate modelling

West Antarctic climate and surface mass balance (SMB) records are sparse. To fill this gap, regional atmospheric climate modelling is useful, providing that such models are employed at sufficiently high horizontal resolution and coupled with a snow model. Here we present the results of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) simulation of coastal West Antarctica for the period 1979–2015. We evaluate the results with available in situ weather observations, remote-sensing estimates of surface melt, and SMB estimates derived from radar and firn cores. Moreover, results are compared with those from a lower-resolution version, to assess the added value of the resolution. The high-resolution model resolves small-scale climate variability invoked by topography, such as the relatively warm conditions over ice-shelf grounding zones, and local wind speed accelerations. Surface melt and SMB are well reproduced by RACMO2. This dataset will prove useful for picking ice core locations, converting elevation changes to mass changes, for driving ocean, ice-sheet and coupled models, and for attributing changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and shelves to changes in atmospheric forcing

Surface Melting Drives Fluctuations in Airborne Radar Penetration in West Central Greenland

Greenland Ice Sheet surface melting has increased since the 1990s, affecting the rheology and scattering properties of the near‐surface firn. We combine firn cores and modeled firn densities with 7 years of CryoVEx airborne Ku‐band (13.5 GHz) radar profiles to quantify the impact of melting on microwave radar penetration in West Central Greenland. Although annual layers are present in the Ku‐band radar profiles to depths up to 15 m below the ice sheet surface, fluctuations in summer melting strongly affect the degree of radar penetration. The extreme melting in 2012, for example, caused an abrupt 6.2 ± 2.4 m decrease in Ku‐band radar penetration. Nevertheless, retracking the radar echoes mitigates this effect, producing surface heights that agree to within 13.9 cm of coincident airborne laser measurements. We also examine 2 years of Ka‐band (34.5 GHz) airborne radar data and show that the degree of penetration is half that of coincident Ku‐band

Late HIV Diagnosis and Determinants of Progression to AIDS or Death after HIV Diagnosis among Injection Drug Users, 33 US States, 1996–2004

BACKGROUND: The timeliness of HIV diagnosis and the initiation of antiretroviral treatment are major determinants of survival for HIV-infected people. Injection drug users (IDUs) are less likely than persons in other transmission categories to seek early HIV counseling, testing, and treatment. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of IDUs with a late HIV diagnosis (AIDS diagnosis within 12 months of HIV diagnosis) and determine the factors associated with disease progression after HIV diagnosis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from 33 states with confidential name-based HIV reporting, we determined the proportion of IDUs aged >or=13 years who received a late HIV diagnosis during 1996-2004. We used standardized Kaplan-Meier survival methods to determine differences in time of progression from HIV to AIDS and death, by race/ethnicity, sex, age group, CD4(+) T-cell count, metropolitan residence, and diagnosis year. We compared the survival of IDUs with the survival of persons in other transmission categories. During 1996-2004, 42.2% (11,635) of 27,572 IDUs were diagnosed late. For IDUs, the risk for progression from HIV to AIDS 3 years after HIV diagnosis was greater for nonwhites, males and older persons. Three-year survival after HIV diagnosis was lower for IDU males (87.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 87.1-87.4) compared with males exposed through male-to-male sexual contact (91.6%, 95% CI, 91.6-91.7) and males exposed through high-risk heterosexual contact (HRHC) (91.9%, 95% CI, 91.8-91.9). Survival was also lower for IDU females (89.5%, 95% CI, 89.4-89.6) compared to HRHC females (93.3%, 95% CI, 93.3-93.4). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A substantial proportion of IDUs living with HIV received their HIV diagnosis late. To improve survival of IDUs, HIV prevention efforts must ensure early access to HIV testing and care, as well as encourage adherence to antiretroviral treatment to slow disease progression

Sea level rise from West Antarctic mass loss significantly modified by large snowfall anomalies

Mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is dominated by glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), yet the impact of anomalous precipitation on the mass balance of the ASE is poorly known. Here we present a 25-year (1996–2021) record of ASE input-output mass balance and evaluate how two periods of anomalous precipitation affected its sea level contribution. Since 1996, the ASE has lost 3331 ± 424 Gt ice, contributing 9.2 ± 1.2 mm to global sea level. Overall, surface mass balance anomalies contributed little (7.7%) to total mass loss; however, two anomalous precipitation events had larger, albeit short-lived, impacts on rates of mass change. During 2009–2013, persistently low snowfall led to an additional 51 ± 4 Gt yr−1 mass loss in those years (contributing positively to the total loss of 195 ± 4 Gt yr−1). Contrastingly, extreme precipitation in the winters of 2019 and 2020 decreased mass loss by 60 ± 16 Gt yr−1 during those years (contributing negatively to the total loss of 107 ± 15 Gt yr−1). These results emphasise the important impact of extreme snowfall variability on the short-term sea level contribution from West Antarctica

Determining the Freshwater Fluxes from Antarctica with Earth Observation Data, Models, and In Situ Measurements: Uncertainties, Knowledge Gaps, and Prospects for New Advances [Meeting Summary]

Workshop on Antarctic Ice Shelf Processes in Models and Earth Observation

Antarctic extreme events

There is increasing evidence that fossil-fuel burning, and consequential global heating of 1.1°C to date, has led to the increased occurrence and severity of extreme environmental events. It is well documented how such events have impacted society outside Antarctica through enhanced levels of rainfall and flooding, heatwaves and wildfires, drought and water/food shortages and episodes of intense cooling. Here, we briefly examine evidence for extreme events in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean across a variety of environments and timescales. We show how vulnerable natural Antarctic systems are to extreme events and highlight how governance and environmental protection of the continent must take them into account. Given future additional heating of at least 0.4°C is now unavoidable (to contain heating to the “Paris Agreement 1.5°C” scenario), and may indeed be higher unless drastic action is successfully taken on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by mid-Century, we explain it is virtually certain that future Antarctic extreme events will be more pronounced than those observed to date