Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The mammalian efferent vestibular system utilizes cholinergic mechanisms to excite primary vestibular afferents

Abstract Electrical stimulation of the mammalian efferent vestibular system (EVS) predominantly excites primary vestibular afferents along two distinct time scales. Although roles for acetylcholine (ACh) have been demonstrated in other vertebrates, synaptic mechanisms underlying mammalian EVS actions are not well-characterized. To determine if activation of ACh receptors account for efferent-mediated afferent excitation in mammals, we recorded afferent activity from the superior vestibular nerve of anesthetized C57BL/6 mice while stimulating EVS neurons in the brainstem, before and after administration of cholinergic antagonists. Using a normalized coefficient of variation (CV*), we broadly classified vestibular afferents as regularly- (CV*  0.1) and characterized their responses to midline or ipsilateral EVS stimulation. Afferent responses to efferent stimulation were predominantly excitatory, grew in amplitude with increasing CV*, and consisted of fast and slow components that could be identified by differences in rise time and post-stimulus duration. Both efferent-mediated excitatory components were larger in irregular afferents with ipsilateral EVS stimulation. Our pharmacological data show, for the first time in mammals, that muscarinic AChR antagonists block efferent-mediated slow excitation whereas the nicotinic AChR antagonist DHβE selectively blocks efferent-mediated fast excitation, while leaving the efferent-mediated slow component intact. These data confirm that mammalian EVS actions are predominantly cholinergic

Paired Related Homeobox Protein 1 Regulates Quiescence in Human Oligodendrocyte Progenitors

Summary: Human oligodendrocyte progenitor cells (hOPCs) persist into adulthood as an abundant precursor population capable of division and differentiation. The transcriptional mechanisms that regulate hOPC homeostasis remain poorly defined. Herein, we identify paired related homeobox protein 1 (PRRX1) in primary PDGFαR+ hOPCs. We show that enforced PRRX1 expression results in reversible G1/0 arrest. While both PRRX1 splice variants reduce hOPC proliferation, only PRRX1a abrogates migration. hOPC engraftment into hypomyelinated shiverer/rag2 mouse brain is severely impaired by PRRX1a, characterized by reduced cell proliferation and migration. PRRX1 induces a gene expression signature characteristic of stem cell quiescence. Both IFN-γ and BMP signaling upregulate PRRX1 and induce quiescence. PRRX1 knockdown modulates IFN-γ-induced quiescence. In mouse brain, PRRX1 mRNA was detected in non-dividing OPCs and is upregulated in OPCs following demyelination. Together, these data identify PRRX1 as a regulator of quiescence in hOPCs and as a potential regulator of pathological quiescence. : Wang et al. investigate the role of transcription factor PRRX1 in human oligodendrocyte progenitor cells. PRRX1 induces reversible cell-cycle arrest, resulting in a quiescent-like state that prevents colonization and myelination of hypomyelinated shiverer mice. PRRX1 expression was regulated by interferon-γ and BMP and required for interferon-induced quiescence. Keywords: quiescence, human, glia, RNA-seq, RNA

Proteomic profiling reveals biomarkers and pathways in type 2 diabetes risk

Recent advances in proteomic technologies have made high-throughput profiling of low-abundance proteins in large epidemiological cohorts increasingly feasible. We investigated whether aptamer-based proteomic profiling could identify biomarkers associated with future development of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) beyond known risk factors. We identified dozens of markers with highly significant associations with future T2DM across 2 large longitudinal cohorts (n = 2839) followed for up to 16 years. We leveraged proteomic, metabolomic, genetic, and clinical data from humans to nominate 1 specific candidate to test for potential causal relationships in model systems. Our studies identified functional effects of aminoacylase 1 (ACY1), a top protein association with future T2DM risk, on amino acid metabolism and insulin homeostasis in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, a loss-of-function variant associated with circulating levels of the biomarker WAP, Kazal, immunoglobulin, Kunitz, and NTR domain–containing protein 2 (WFIKKN2) was, in turn, associated with fasting glucose, hemoglobin A1c, and HOMA-IR measurements in humans. In addition to identifying potentially novel disease markers and pathways in T2DM, we provide publicly available data to be leveraged for insights about gene function and disease pathogenesis in the context of human metabolism