ECOSSE: Estimating Carbon in Organic Soils - Sequestration and Emissions: Final Report

Background Climate change, caused by greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions, is one of the most serious threats facing our planet, and is of concern at both UK and devolved administration levels. Accurate predictions for the effects of changes in climate and land use on GHG emissions are vital for informing land use policy. Models which are currently used to predict differences in soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) caused by these changes, have been derived from those based on mineral soils or deep peat. None of these models is entirely satisfactory for describing what happens to organic soils following land-use change. Reports of Scottish GHG emissions have revealed that approximately 15% of Scotland's total emissions come from land use changes on Scotland's high carbon soils; the figure is much lower for Wales. It is therefore important to reduce the major uncertainty in assessing the carbon store and flux from land use change on organic soils, especially those which are too shallow to be deep peats but still contain a large reserve of C. In order to predict the response of organic soils to external change we need to develop a model that reflects more accurately the conditions of these soils. The development of a model for organic soils will help to provide more accurate values of net change to soil C and N in response to changes in land use and climate and may be used to inform reporting to UKGHG inventories. Whilst a few models have been developed to describe deep peat formation and turnover, none have so far been developed suitable for examining the impacts of land-use and climate change on the types of organic soils often subject to land-use change in Scotland and Wales. Organic soils subject to land-use change are often (but not exclusively) characterised by a shallower organic horizon than deep peats (e.g. organo-mineral soils such as peaty podzols and peaty gleys). The main aim of the model developed in this project was to simulate the impacts of land-use and climate change in these types of soils. The model is, a) be driven by commonly available meteorological data and soil descriptions, b) able to simulate and predict C and N turnover in organic soils, c) able to predict the impacts of land-use change and climate change on C and N stores in organic soils in Scotland and Wales. In addition to developing the model, we have undertaken a number of other modelling exercises, literature searches, desk studies, data base exercises, and experimentation to answer a range of other questions associated with the responses of organic soils in Scotland and Wales to climate and land-use change. Aims of the ECOSSE project The aims of the study were: To develop a new model of C and N dynamics that reflects conditions in organic soils in Scotland and Wales and predicts their likely responses to external factors To identify the extent of soils that can be considered organic in Scotland and Wales and provide an estimate of the carbon contained within them To predict the contribution of CO 2, nitrous oxide and methane emissions from organic soils in Scotland and Wales, and provide advice on how changes in land use and climate will affect the C and N balance In order to fulfil these aims, the project was broken down into modules based on these objectives and the report uses that structure. The first aim is covered by module 2, the second aim by module 1, and the third aim by modules 3 to 8. Many of the modules are inter-linked. Objectives of the ECOSSE project The main objectives of the project were to: Describe the distribution of organic soils in Scotland and Wales and provide an estimate of the C contained in them Develop a model to simulate C and N cycling in organic soils and provide predictions as to how they will respond to land-use, management and climate change using elements of existing peat, mineral and forest soil models Provide predictive statements on the effects of land-use and climate change on organic soils and the relationships to GHG emissions, including CO 2, nitrous oxide and methane. Provide predictions on the effects of land use change and climate change on the release of Dissolved Organic Matter from organic soils Provide estimates of C loss from scenarios of accelerated erosion of organic soils Suggest best options for mitigating C and N loss from organic soils Provide guidelines on the likely effects of changing land-use from grazing or semi-natural vegetation to forestry on C and N in organic soils Use the land-use change data derived from the Countryside Surveys of Scotland and Wales to provide predictive estimates for changes to C and N balance in organic soils over time

Hazardous Drinking Prevalence and Correlates in Older New Zealanders: A Comparison of the AUDIT-C and the CARET

Objectives: The study compared the proportion of older adults identified as drinking hazardously based on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test–Consumption (AUDIT-C) with the older adult-specific Comorbidity Alcohol Risk Evaluation Tool (CARET) and investigated whether sociodemographics, comorbidities, health, medication use, and alcohol-related risk behaviors explained discrepancies between the screens in classification of hazardousness. Method: The AUDIT-C and the CARET were administered to 3,673 adults aged 55 to 89 years. Classification agreement between the screens was evaluated using Cohen’s kappa. Hazardous drinking groups were compared using logistic regression. Results: Analysis indicated moderate agreement between the screens. Drinkers classified as “hazardous on the CARET only” consumed less alcohol, but were more likely to drink-drive. Introducing a drink-driving criterion into the calculation of hazardousness on the AUDIT-C substantially decreased the classification discrepancy between the measures. Discussion: Standard screening can be improved by investigating comorbidities, medication use, and alcohol-related risk behaviors in those initially identified as nonhazardous drinkers

Ageing across the Tasman Sea: the demographics and health of older adults in Australia and New Zealand

Objective: The demographic and health aspects of ageing populations in Australia and New Zealand (NZ) are described. These data are relevant to compare impacts of policy and context in each country. Methods: Secondary analysis of international (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations and World Health Organization) and domestic population and health data. Results: Both countries will experience a greater than 80% increase in the population aged 60-plus years between 2013 and 2050. The increase in the 80-plus population will be 200% or higher, resulting in 2.8 million Australians and more than 510,000 New Zealanders in this age group by 2050. The speed of ageing in both countries is higher than the average rate of increase in developed countries. Average life expectancy at birth and age 60 is higher in Australia than NZ, with the differences increasing slightly by 2050, and gaps between men and women consistently smaller in NZ than in Australia. However, a higher proportion of older Australians report living with a disability (53%) than older New Zealanders (45%). Conclusions: Australia and NZ are well aged in the context of a youthful Oceania region, with more similarities than differences between the countries. Implications: Both countries need to continue to monitor health trends, unravel the major population attributable risks, and identify preventative and other interventions that can stimulate and support declines in disability in older populations in the future, particularly for non-indigenous older persons

Malnutrition Risk: Four Year Outcomes from the Health, Work and Retirement Study 2014 to 2018

This study aimed to determine four-year outcomes of community-living older adults identified at ‘nutrition risk’ in the 2014 Health, Work and Retirement Study. Nutrition risk was assessed using the validated Seniors in the Community: Risk Evaluation for Eating and Nutrition, (SCREENII-AB) by postal survey. Other measures included demographic, social and health characteristics. Physical and mental functioning and overall health-related quality of life were assessed using the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2). Depression was assessed using the verified shortened 10 item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10). Social provisions were determined with the 24-item Social Provisions Scale. Alcohol intake was determined by using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C). Among 471 adults aged 49–87 years, 33.9% were at nutrition risk (SCREEN II-AB score ≤ 38). The direct effects of nutrition risk showed that significant differences between at-risk and not-at-risk groups at baseline remained at follow up. Over time, physical health and alcohol use scores reduced. Mental health improved over time for not-at-risk and remained static for those at-risk. Time had non-significant interactions and small effects on all other indicators. Findings highlight the importance of nutrition screening in primary care as nutrition risk factors persist over time

Health and retirement of older New Zealanders

Increasing life expectancies and uncertainty about future retirement incomes are likely to lead to various changes in behaviour. As expectations are revised, one potentially important adjustment mechanism is in labour force participation rates. There is already evidence these are rising for those beyond the age of eligibility for New Zealand Superannuation. This paper uses a new source of longitudinal data on the health, labour force participation and retirement decisions of older New Zealanders. The central question addressed is the extent to which labour force participation of older New Zealanders is influenced by their health status (both mental and physical), in addition to a wide range of economic, social and demographic variables. Discrete choice models are employed, and particular attention is given to the potential effects of unobserved heterogeneity. We find a range of factors to be associated with the decision to retire, notably health status, marital status and financial incentives. After accounting for the confounding influence of unobservables, we find that physical health remains a determinant of labour force exit for older males. Further, we estimate both the marginal and aggregate effects of specific chronic conditions on labour force participation

Economic Living Standard Indices mediate the apparent health benefits of alcohol consumption among older adults.

<p>Considerable population health research suggests that alcohol may have beneficial effects on physical health and mortality rates. This “healthy-dose” finding persists when controlling for potential confounds (e.g., age, gender, income). We explored the degree to which economic living standards further contribute to our understandings of how alcoholic beverages affect health.<br><strong>Design and Methods</strong>: A secondary cross-sectional analysis of existing data on a subsample of 814 face-to-face interview participants (aged 52-86) from the New Zealand Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NZLSA). Physical health was measured with the SF- 12v2. Other measures included alcohol consumption behaviours (measured with the AUDIT-C), the Economic Living Standard Index (ELSI) Short Form, and demographic information.<br><strong>Results</strong>: A hierarchical regression model initially replicated the effect found in previous research at Step 1 (R2 = .10); the number of daily drinks positively predicted physical health (B = 0.86, ± 0.79) when controlling for gender, age, smoking, mental health, education, and income. However, at Step 2 (R2Δ= .08) ELSI scores strongly predicted physical health (B = 0.57, ± 0.15) and fully mediated the previous relationship between alcohol consumption and physical health (B = 0.41, ± 0.76).<br><strong>Discussion and Conclusions</strong>: The positive health benefit associated with alcohol consumption in the NZLSA data is better explained by who is doing the drinking rather than the quantity of drink. Older people with high economic living standards are healthier and consume more alcohol compared to their at-risk counterparts. Future research will investigate whether factors like health literacy might further explain this phenomenon.</p> <p> </p

Considerations of response bias and value in linking an existing longitudinal cohort study with national health record data

ABSTRACT Objective Longitudinal cohort studies remain important sources of information in health and epidemiological research and represent a significant investment of resources. The maintenance of these cohorts over time and the representativeness of retained participants are important considerations for researchers. For those weighting the benefits of augmenting a longitudinal cohort study with data linkage to national health records, the potential for bias in consent and match rates and the utility of the newly obtained data are also key considerations. This study presents an analysis of bias associated with consent to participate and record matching in an established longitudinal cohort of older persons. We present the unique outcomes generated from this national health record data linkage project and the opportunities such variables present for longitudinal cohort studies. Approach The New Zealand Health, Work and Retirement study is a biennial survey of persons aged 55-85 which commenced in 2006. Over the past decade, additional cohorts have been recruited to the study, with n = 9003 older New Zealand residents participating to the year 2015. In 2013 the study began an approach to active survey participants for consent to link their longitudinal survey data to national health record data held by the New Zealand Health Information Service, including data related to hospital events, the New Zealand Cancer Registry, pharmaceutical data and mental health data. We compare self-reported longitudinal health trends associated with consent/declination to participate as well as for record match success and failure. Key outcomes derived from these national datasets for the purposes of the Health, Work and Retirement Study are described. Results Consent (62.5%) and declination (8.9%) to participate in the data linkage project are described in terms of the corresponding longitudinal self-reported health and socio-demographic trends for these groups. Successful and unsuccessful matches of participants to national health record data are also described. The calculation of outcomes from each of the linked datasets obtained and their potential utility in building upon existing longitudinal cohort data are also presented. Conclusions National health record data linkage presents a potentially valuable source of data to supplement and replicate findings related to health outcomes and expenditure derived from longitudinal cohort surveys. The challenges and successes of the New Zealand Health, Work and Retirement survey data linkage project touch upon considerations pertinent to evaluating the value of augmenting existing and ongoing longitudinal survey cohort for other researchers