Mathematical Analysis of Regression Model Epidemiology

Statistical modeling techniques, specifically regression line analysis have become important analytical tools and are contributing immensely to the field of epidemiology. However, many users do not understand their effective use and applications. Underlying epidemiological concepts and not the statistics should govern or justify the proper use and application of any modeling exercise. Main utility of the regression line analysis lies in its ability to provide a general but practical conceptual framework for casual problems, explaining and evaluating the role of biases, confounders and effect modifiers. Successful modeling of complex data is a part science, part statistics and part experience, but the major part is logic or common sense. Findings of this research article focuses on the contributions of regression analysis towards the pedagogical study of epidemiological models by enhancing the research process and serving as an effective tool for communicating findings to public health managers and policymakers and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration

REFLECTION AND REFLEXIVITY IN REVIEWING AND EVALUATING CDIO: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH TO EVALUATION

ABSTRACT Facilitated by an Engineer and a Social Scientist, both of whom have expertise in Engineering Education Research and Evaluation (EERE), this interactive workshop is divided into three main sections, each one focusing on a different area of evaluation. It will build on research conducted at Aston University School of Engineering and Applied Science to explore and critique the value of introducing CDIO across the first year undergraduate curriculum. Participants will be invited to consider the pedagogical and engineering related challenges of evaluating the academic and practical value of CDIO as a strategy for learning and teaching in the discipline. An empirical approach to evaluation developed by the researchers to provide empirically grounded evidence of the pedagogical and vocational value of CDIO will form the theoretical and conceptual basis of the workshop. This approach is distinctive in that it encapsulates both engineering and social science methods of evaluation. It is also contemporaneous in nature, with the researchers acting as a 'fly on the wall' capturing data as the programme unfolds. Through facilitated discussion and participation, the workshop will provide colleagues with the opportunity to develop a cross-disciplinary, empirically grounded research proposal specifically for the purposes of critically evaluating CDIO. It is anticipated that during the workshop, colleagues will work together in small groups. Suitable pedagogical approaches and tools will be suggested and a purposefully developed Engineering Education Research Guide, written by the workshop facilitators, will be given to all participants to inform and support the Workshop approach

Quantification of the SF₆ lifetime based on mesospheric loss measured in the stratospheric polar vortex

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) is a greenhouse gas with one of the highest radiative efficiencies in the atmosphere as well as an important indicator of transport time scales in the stratosphere. The current widely used estimate of the atmospheric lifetime of SF₆ is 3200 years. In this study we use in situ measurements in the 2000 Arctic polar vortex that sampled air with up to 50% SF₆ loss to calculate an SF₆ lifetime. Comparison of these measurements with output from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) shows that WACCM transport into the vortex is accurate and that an important SF₆ loss mechanism, believed to be electron attachment, is missing in the model. Based on the measurements and estimates of the size of the vortex, we calculate an SF₆ lifetime of 850 years with an uncertainty range of 580–1400 years. The amount of SF₆ loss is shown to be consistent with that of HFC‐227ea, which has a lifetime of 670–780 years, adding independent support to our new SF₆ lifetime estimate. Based on the revised lifetime the global warming potential of SF₆ will decrease only slightly for short time horizons (<100 years) but will decrease substantially for time horizons longer than 2000 years. Also, the use of SF6 measurements as an indicator of transport time scales in the stratosphere clearly must account for potential influence from polar vortex air

Vertex-Coloring with Star-Defects

Defective coloring is a variant of traditional vertex-coloring, according to which adjacent vertices are allowed to have the same color, as long as the monochromatic components induced by the corresponding edges have a certain structure. Due to its important applications, as for example in the bipartisation of graphs, this type of coloring has been extensively studied, mainly with respect to the size, degree, and acyclicity of the monochromatic components. In this paper we focus on defective colorings in which the monochromatic components are acyclic and have small diameter, namely, they form stars. For outerplanar graphs, we give a linear-time algorithm to decide if such a defective coloring exists with two colors and, in the positive case, to construct one. Also, we prove that an outerpath (i.e., an outerplanar graph whose weak-dual is a path) always admits such a two-coloring. Finally, we present NP-completeness results for non-planar and planar graphs of bounded degree for the cases of two and three colors

Airborne observations of methane emissions from rice cultivation in the Sacramento Valley of California

Airborne measurements of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were taken over the rice growing region of California's Sacramento Valley in the late spring of 2010 and 2011. From these and ancillary measurements, we show that CH4 mixing ratios were higher in the planetary boundary layer above the Sacramento Valley during the rice growing season than they were before it, which we attribute to emissions from rice paddies. We derive daytime emission fluxes of CH4 between 0.6 and 2.0% of the CO2 taken up by photosynthesis on a per carbon, or mole to mole, basis. We also use a mixing model to determine an average CH 4/CO2 flux ratio of -0.6% for one day early in the growing season of 2010. We conclude the CH4/CO2 flux ratio estimates from a single rice field in a previous study are representative of rice fields in the Sacramento Valley. If generally true, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) greenhouse gas inventory emission rate of 2.7×1010g CH4/yr is approximately three times lower than the range of probable CH4 emissions (7.8-9.3×10 10g CH4/yr) from rice cultivation derived in this study. We attribute this difference to decreased burning of the residual rice crop since 1991, which leads to an increase in CH4 emissions from rice paddies in succeeding years, but which is not accounted for in the CARB inventory. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Quantifying sources of methane using light alkanes in the Los Angeles basin, California

Methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and C2-C5 alkanes were measured throughout the Los Angeles (L.A.) basin in May and June 2010. We use these data to show that the emission ratios of CH4/CO and CH4/CO2 in the L.A. basin are larger than expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories, consistent with previously published work. We use experimentally determined CH4/CO and CH4/CO2 emission ratios in combination with annual State of California CO and CO2 inventories to derive a yearly emission rate of CH4 to the L.A. basin. We further use the airborne measurements to directly derive CH4 emission rates from dairy operations in Chino, and from the two largest landfills in the L.A. basin, and show these sources are accurately represented in the California Air Resources Board greenhouse gas inventory for CH4. We then use measurements of C2-C5 alkanes to quantify the relative contribution of other CH4 sources in the L.A. basin, with results differing from those of previous studies. The atmospheric data are consistent with the majority of CH4 emissions in the region coming from fugitive losses from natural gas in pipelines and urban distribution systems and/or geologic seeps, as well as landfills and dairies. The local oil and gas industry also provides a significant source of CH4 in the area. The addition of CH4 emissions from natural gas pipelines and urban distribution systems and/or geologic seeps and from the local oil and gas industry is sufficient to account for the differences between the top-down and bottom-up CH4 inventories identified in previously published work. Key PointsTop-down estimates of CH4 emissions in L.A. are greater than inventory estimatesEstimates of CH4 emissions from landfills in L.A. agree with CARB inventoryPipeline natural gas and/or seeps, and landfills are main sources of CH4 in L.A. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Adherence to Antiretroviral Treatment and Correlation with Risk of Hospitalization among Commercially Insured HIV Patients in the United States

Purpose: A lower daily pill burden may improve adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and clinical outcomes in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This study assessed differences in adherence using the number of pills taken per day, and evaluated how adherence correlated with hospitalization. Methodology: Commercially insured patients in the LifeLink database with an HIV diagnosis (International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification code 042.xx) between 6/1/2006 and 12/31/2008 and receipt of a complete ART regimen were selected for inclusion. Patients were grouped according to their daily pill count and remained on ART for at least 60 days. Outcomes included adherence and rates of hospitalization. Adherence was measured as the proportion of days between the start and end of the regimen in which the patient maintained supply of all initiated ART components. Logistic regressions assessed the relationship between pills per day, adherence, and hospitalization, controlling for demographics, comorbidities, and ART-naïve (vs. experienced) status. Results: 7,073 patients met the study inclusion criteria, and 33.4%, 5.8%, and 60.8 % received an ART regimen comprising one, two, or three or more pills per day, respectively. Regression analysis showed patients receiving a single pill per day were significantly more likely to reach a 95 % adherence threshold versus patients receiving three or more pills per day (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59; P,0.001). Regardless of the number of pills received per day, patients were over 40 % less likely to have

Twelve tips for engaging learners in online discussions

Educators play a critical role in designing, facilitating and delivering an online medical education experience. Their teaching decisions and practices shape learners’ experiences and affect their achievements. This is true even in large-scale, open educational contexts such as Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), which are designed based on self-regulated and collaborative learning. Thus, it is particularly important to explore the ways in which educators can effectively support online or blended learning through their interactions with learners. The 12 tips in this article aim to provide medical educators with guidelines for creating engaging online discussions that both support and challenge learners’ understanding. The advice draws on a recent study examining the experiences and activities of 24 educators in MOOC discussion areas, and how their learners engaged with them. It provides practical recommendations on facilitating online discussions, producing engaging discussion tasks, and creating a balanced educator presence