Are small rural banks vulnerable to local economic downturns?

A potentially troubling characteristic of the U.S. banking industry is the geographic concentration of many banks’ offices and operations. Historically, banking laws have prevented U.S. banks from branching into other counties and states. A potential adverse consequence of these regulations was to leave banks—especially small rural banks—vulnerable to local economic downturns. If geographic concentration of bank offices leaves banks vulnerable to local economic downturns, we should observe a significant correlation between bank performance and the local economy. Looking at Eighth District banks, however, we find little connection between the dispersion of a bank’s offices and its ability to insulate itself from localized economic shocks. County-level economic data are weakly correlated with bank performance. Two policy implications follow from this finding. First, a priori, little justification exists for imposing more stringent regulatory requirements on banks with geographically concentrated operations than on other banks. Second, county-level labor and income data do not appear to be systematically useful in the bank supervision process.Rural areas ; Banks and banking ; Economic conditions - United States

That Elusive Elasticity: A Long-Panel Approach To Estimating The Price Sensitivity Of Business Capital

The sensitivity of business capital formation to its user cost plays a key role in the analysis of many economic issues. Although this elasticity has been the subject of an enormous number of studies, a consensus remains elusive. We develop an estimation strategy that exploits panel data in an original way and avoids several pitfalls - difficult-to-specify dynamics, transitory time-series variation, and positively sloped supply schedules - inherent in investment equations that can bias the estimated elasticity. Results are based on an extensive panel containing 1,860 manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. Our model generates a precisely estimated user cost elasticity of approximately 0.40. The method developed here may prove useful in estimating other structural parameters from panel datasets.

Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance?

The Federal Reserve’s off-site surveillance system includes two econometric models that are collectively known as the System for Estimating Examination Ratings (SEER). One model, the SEER risk rank model, uses the latest financial statements to estimate the probability that each Fed-supervised bank will fail in the next two years. The other component, the SEER rating model, uses the latest financial statements to produce a “shadow” CAMELS rating for each supervised bank. Banks identified as risky by either model receive closer supervisory scrutiny than other state-member banks.> Because many of the banks flagged by the SEER models have already tumbled into poor condition and, hence, would already be receiving considerable supervisory attention, we developed an alternative model to identify safe-and-sound banks that potentially are headed for financial distress. Such a model could help supervisors allocate scarce on- and off-site resources by pointing out banks not currently under scrutiny that need watching.> It is possible, however, that our alternative model improves little over the current SEER framework. All three models—the SEER risk rank model, the SEER rating model, and our downgrade model—produce ordinal rankings based on overall risk. If the financial factors that explain CAMELS downgrades differ little from the financial factors that explain failures or CAMELS ratings, then all three models will produce similar risk ratings and, hence, similar watch lists of one- and two-rated banks.> We find only slight differences in the ability of the three models to spot emerging financial distress among safe-and-sound banks. In out-of-sample tests for 1992 through 1998, the watch lists produced by the downgrade model outperform the watch lists produced by the SEER models by only a small margin. We conclude that, in relatively tranquil banking environments like the 1990s, a downgrade model adds little value in off-site surveillance. We caution, however, that a downgrade model might prove useful in more turbulent banking times.Bank supervision

That Elusive Elasticity: A Long-Panel Approach to Estimating the Capital-Labor Substitution Elasticity

The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor features prominently in several areas of economic research. However, a consensus estimate remains elusive. We develop an estimation strategy that filters panel data in an original way and avoids several pitfalls - difficult-to-specify dynamics, transitory time-series variation, and positively sloped supply schedules - inherent in investment equations that can bias the estimated elasticity. Results are based on an extensive panel containing 1,860 manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. Our model generates a precisely estimated elasticity of approximately 0.40. The method developed here may prove useful in estimating other structural parameters from panel datasets.

Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve bank surveillance?

We examine the value of jumbo certificate-of-deposit (CD) signals in bank surveillance. To do so, we first construct proxies for default premiums and deposit runoffs and then rank banks based on these risk proxies. Next, we rank banks based on the output of a logit model typical of the econometric models used in off-site surveillance. Finally, we compare jumbo-CD rankings and surveillance-model rankings as tools for predicting financial distress. Our comparisons include eight out-of-sample test windows during the 1990s. We find that rankings obtained from jumbo-CD data would not have improved on rankings obtained from conventional surveillance tools. More importantly, we find that jumbo-CD rankings would not have improved materially over random rankings of the sample banks. These findings validate current surveillance practices and, when viewed with other recent empirical tests, raise questions about the value of market signals in bank surveillance.Finance ; Banks and banking ; Bank supervision

The role of a CAMEL downgrade model in bank surveillance

This article examines the potential contribution to bank supervision of a model designed to predict which banks will have their supervisory ratings downgraded in future periods. Bank supervisors rely on various tools of off-site surveillance to track the condition of banks under their jurisdiction between on-site examinations, including econometric models. One of the models that the Federal Reserve System uses for surveillance was estimated to predict bank failures. Because bank failures have been so rare during the last decade, the coefficients on this model have been "frozen" since 1991. Each quarter the surveillance staff at the Board of Governors provide the supervision staff in the Reserve Banks the probabilities of failure by the banks subject to Fed supervision, based on the coefficients of this bank failure model and the latest call report data for each bank. The number of banks downgraded to problem status in recent years has been substantially larger than the number of bank failures. During a period of few bank failures, the relevance of this bank failure model for surveillance depends to some extent on the accuracy of the model in predicting which banks will have their supervisory ratings downgraded to problem status in future periods. This paper compares the ability of two models to predict downgrades of supervisory ratings to problem status: the Board staff model, which was estimated to predict bank failures, and a model estimated to predict downgrades of supervisory ratings. We find that both models do about as well in predicting downgrades of supervisory ratings for the early 1990s. Over time, however, the ability of the downgrade model to predict downgrades improves relative to that of the model estimated to predict failures. This pattern reflects the value of using a model for surveillance that can be re-estimated frequently. We conclude that the downgrade model may prove to be a useful supplement to the Board's model for estimating failures during periods when most banks are healthy, but that the downgrade model should not be considered a replacement for the current surveillance framework.Bank supervision

Can feedback from the jumbo CD market improve bank surveillance?

Banks and banking

Can feedback from the jumbo-CD market improve off-site surveillance of community banks?

We examine the value of feedback from the jumbo-certificate-of-deposit (CD) market in the off-site surveillance of community banks. Using accounting data, we construct proxies for default premiums on jumbo CDs. Then, we produce rank orderings of community banks -- defined as institutions holding less than $500 million in assets (constant 1999 dollars) -- based on these proxies. Next, we use an econometric surveillance model to generate rank orderings based on the probability of encountering financial distress. Finally, we compare these rank orderings as tools for flagging emerging problems. Our comparisons include eight out-of-sample test windows during the 1990s. We find that feedback from the jumbo-CD market would have added little value in community-bank surveillance during our sample period. Specifically, rank orderings based on output from the econometric model significantly outperformed rank orderings based on jumbo-CD default premiums. More important, the jumbo-CD orderings improved little over a random ordering. Other attempts to extract risk signals from the jumbo-CD data yielded similar results. Taken together, our findings validate current surveillance practices. We conclude by arguing that the robust economic environment of the 1990s probably plays a large role in our results.Community banks ; Bank supervision

Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?

Uninsured deposits represent a theoretically appealing but relatively untested alternative to subordinated debt for incorporating market discipline into banking supervision. To make the deposit market a useful supervisory tool, it is necessary to know what types of risk are priced by depositors and in what proportions. Using a clustering technique to select from among a large set of potential regressors, as well as a carefully chosen set of control variables, we attempt to determine the types of risk that cause uninsured depositors to react in both the price and quantity dimensions. As a benchmark for economic significance, we estimate similar regressions on supervisory ratings. We find that, in contrast to government supervisors, depositors have not priced most types of risk since 1997. Indeed, the only risk variables that consistently come up as statistically significant are those that measure capital adequacy. Our interpretation of these results is that, because aggregate banking conditions are good, it is not worth depositors' effort to investigate individual bank quality very carefully. We conclude that, in the current economic and regulatory environment, the market is content to delegate most of its monitoring and discipline to the government. To the extent that it does monitor, it only monitors capital. The jumbo-CD market is thus not likely to be of much supervisory use, particularly given that examiners already have good information about capital levels. The depositor emphasis on capital also supports the conjecture that market discipline was responsible for much of the recent capital build-up.Bank deposits ; Bank supervision