A dynamic framework for assessing and managing risks to ecosystems from fisheries: demonstration for conserving the krill-based food web in Antarctica

The ecosystem approach to fisheries has been discussed since the 1980s. It aims to reduce risks from fisheries to whole, or components of, ecosystems, not just to target species. Precautionary approaches further aim to keep the risk of damage to a low level. Here, we provide a dynamic framework for spreading the ecosystems risk of fisheries in space and time, a method that can be used from the outset of developing fisheries and continually updated as new knowledge becomes available. Importantly, this method integrates qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess risk and provides mechanisms to both spread the risk, including enabling closed areas to help offset risk, and adjust catch limits to keep regional risk to a baseline level. Also, the framework does not require uniform data standards across a region but can incorporate spatially and temporally heterogeneous data and knowledge. The approach can be coupled with the conservation of biodiversity in marine protected areas, addressing potential overlap of fisheries with areas of high conservation value. It accounts for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in ecosystems, including the different spatial and temporal scales at which organisms function. We develop the framework in the first section of the paper, including a simple illustration of its application. In the framework we include methods for using closed areas to offset risk or for conserving biodiversity of high conservation value. We also present methods that could be used to account for uncertainties in input data and knowledge. In the second section, we present a real-world illustration of the application of the framework to managing risks of food web effects of fishing for Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean. Last, we comment on the wider application and development of the framework as information improves

Climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems: Toward robust approaches for managing risks and uncertainties

The Polar Regions chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems and associated consequences for humans. It also includes identification of confidence for major findings based on agreement across studies and weight of evidence. Sources of uncertainty, from the extent of available datasets, to resolution of projection models, to the complexity and understanding of underlying social-ecological linkages and dynamics, can influence confidence. Here we, marine ecosystem scientists all having experience as lead authors of IPCC reports, examine the evolution of confidence in observed and projected climate-linked changes in polar ecosystems since SROCC. Further synthesis of literature on polar marine ecosystems has been undertaken, especially within IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II; for the Southern Ocean also the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO). These publications incorporate new scientific findings that address some of the knowledge gaps identified in SROCC. While knowledge gaps have been narrowed, we still find that polar region assessments reflect pronounced geographical skewness in knowledge regarding the responses of marine life to changing climate and associated literature. There is also an imbalance in scientific focus; especially research in Antarctica is dominated by physical oceanography and cryosphere science with highly fragmented approaches and only short-term funding to ecology. There are clear indications that the scientific community has made substantial progress in its ability to project ecosystem responses to future climate change through the development of coupled biophysical models of the region facilitated by increased computer power allowing for improved resolution in space and time. Lastly, we point forward—providing recommendations for future advances for IPCC assessments.publishedVersio

A dynamic framework for assessing and managing risks to ecosystems from fisheries: demonstration for conserving the krill-based food web in Antarctica

The ecosystem approach to fisheries has been discussed since the 1980s. It aims to reduce risks from fisheries to whole, or components of, ecosystems, not just to target species. Precautionary approaches further aim to keep the risk of damage to a low level. Here, we provide a dynamic framework for spreading the ecosystems risk of fisheries in space and time, a method that can be used from the outset of developing fisheries and continually updated as new knowledge becomes available. Importantly, this method integrates qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess risk and provides mechanisms to both spread the risk, including enabling closed areas to help offset risk, and adjust catch limits to keep regional risk to a baseline level. Also, the framework does not require uniform data standards across a region but can incorporate spatially and temporally heterogeneous data and knowledge. The approach can be coupled with the conservation of biodiversity in marine protected areas, addressing potential overlap of fisheries with areas of high conservation value. It accounts for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in ecosystems, including the different spatial and temporal scales at which organisms function. We develop the framework in the first section of the paper, including a simple illustration of its application. In the framework we include methods for using closed areas to offset risk or for conserving biodiversity of high conservation value. We also present methods that could be used to account for uncertainties in input data and knowledge. In the second section, we present a real-world illustration of the application of the framework to managing risks of food web effects of fishing for Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean. Last, we comment on the wider application and development of the framework as information improves

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

The approach encourages divergent thinking, which traverses sectoral and regional boundaries and recognizes links between physical and socio-economic drivers of risk. In this paper recent work describing complex climate change risk is synthesized. It includes concepts of compound, connected, and cascading interactions. It reflects on the consequences of risk assessment and response. It then establishes a framework for risk assessment that encompasses increasing levels of complexity. The framework is demonstrated through diverse case studies to illustrate how risk assessments can better consider and categorize complexity. For convenience and tractability, analysts tend to break risk assessments into silos, often taking a component-oriented view.UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Offic

UV Finite Brane Decay

The decay of an unstable D-brane via closed string emission and open string pair production is considered in subcritical string theory with a spacelike linear dilaton. The decay rate is given by the imaginary part of the annulus, which has ambiguities corresponding to the choices of incoming closed and open string vacua. An exact expression for the full annulus diagram is computed with a natural choice of incoming vacua. It is found that the ultraviolet divergences present in critical string theory in both of these processes are absent for any nonzero spacelike dilaton. Implications for the vexing issue of the tachyon dust are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, minor changes, changed to JHEP styl

Local drivers of change in Southern Ocean ecosystems: Human activities and policy implications

Local drivers are human activities or processes that occur in specific locations, and cause physical or ecological change at the local or regional scale. Here, we consider marine and land-derived pollution, non-indigenous species, tourism and other human visits, exploitation of marine resources, recovery of marine mammals, and coastal change as a result of ice loss, in terms of their historic and current extent, and their interactions with the Southern Ocean environment. We summarise projected increases or decreases in the influence of local drivers, and projected changes to their geographic range, concluding that the influence of non-indigenous species, fishing, and the recovery of marine mammals are predicted to increase in the future across the Southern Ocean. Local drivers can be managed regionally, and we identify existing governance frameworks as part of the Antarctic Treaty System and other instruments which may be employed to mitigate or limit their impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems

Low-Energy Theorems from Holography

In the context of gauge/gravity duality, we verify two types of gauge theory low-energy theorems, the dilation Ward identities and the decoupling of heavy flavor. First, we provide an analytic proof of non-trivial dilation Ward identities for a theory holographically dual to a background with gluon condensate (the self-dual Liu--Tseytlin background). In this way an important class of low-energy theorems for correlators of different operators with the trace of the energy-momentum tensor is established, which so far has been studied in field theory only. Another low-energy relationship, the so-called decoupling theorem, is numerically shown to hold universally in three holographic models involving both the quark and the gluon condensate. We show this by comparing the ratio of the quark and gluon condensates in three different examples of gravity backgrounds with non-trivial dilaton flow. As a by-product of our study, we also obtain gauge field condensate contributions to meson transport coefficients.Comment: 32 pages, 4 figures, two references added, typos remove

The Southern Ocean Ecosystem Affects The Entire World

The Southern Ocean, which flows around the Antarctic continent, is home to vast numbers of unique and remarkable animals, including penguins, albatrosses, petrels, seals, and whales. The ocean bursts into life every spring, fueling a summer feeding and breeding frenzy. During the dark winter months, there is little food and life is very harsh. Human activities such as fishing and pollution are affecting this ecosystem, as is climate change. These ecosystem changes matter beyond the Southern Ocean! Ocean currents carry nutrients and organisms into and out of the Southern Ocean. Many marine mammals and seabirds swim or fly in and out of the Southern Ocean, in search of food and breeding grounds, or to escape the harsh Antarctic winter. These movements and migrations connect the Southern Ocean ecosystem with other marine ecosystems around the world. This means that changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem can affect ecosystems around the world

Developing Priority Variables (“ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables” — eEOVs) for Observing Dynamics and Change in Southern Ocean Ecosystems

Reliable statements about variability and change in marine ecosystems and their underlying causes are needed to report on their status and to guide management. Here we use the Framework on Ocean Observing (FOO) to begin developing ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables (eEOVs) for the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). An eEOV is a defined biological or ecological quantity, which is derived from field observations, and which contributes significantly to assessments of Southern Ocean ecosystems. Here, assessments are concerned with estimating status and trends in ecosystem properties, attribution of trends to causes, and predicting future trajectories. eEOVs should be feasible to collect at appropriate spatial and temporal scales and are useful to the extent that they contribute to direct estimation of trends and/or attribution, and/or development of ecological (statistical or simulation) models to support assessments. In this paper we outline the rationale, including establishing a set of criteria, for selecting eEOVs for the SOOS and develop a list of candidate eEOVs for further evaluation. Other than habitat variables, nine types of eEOVs for Southern Ocean taxa are identified within three classes: state (magnitude, genetic/species, size spectrum), predator–prey (diet, foraging range), and autecology (phenology, reproductive rate, individual growth rate, detritus). Most candidates for the suite of Southern Ocean taxa relate to state or diet. Candidate autecological eEOVs have not been developed other than for marine mammals and birds. We consider some of the spatial and temporal issues that will influence the adoption and use of eEOVs in an observing system in the Southern Ocean, noting that existing operations and platforms potentially provide coverage of the four main sectors of the region — the East and West Pacific, Atlantic and Indian. Lastly, we discuss the importance of simulation modelling in helping with the design of the observing system in the long term. Regional boundary: south of 30°S

Global Connectivity of Southern Ocean Ecosystems

Southern Ocean ecosystems are globally important. Processes in the Antarctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and the Southern Ocean directly influence global atmospheric and oceanic systems. Southern Ocean biogeochemistry has also been shown to have global importance. In contrast, ocean ecological processes are often seen as largely separate from the rest of the global system. In this paper, we consider the degree of ecological connectivity at different trophic levels, linking Southern Ocean ecosystems with the global ocean, and their importance not only for the regional ecosystem but also the wider Earth system. We also consider the human system connections, including the role of Southern Ocean ecosystems in supporting society, culture, and economy in many nations, influencing public and political views and hence policy. Rather than Southern Ocean ecosystems being defined by barriers at particular oceanic fronts, ecological changes are gradual due to cross-front exchanges involving oceanographic processes and organism movement. Millions of seabirds and hundreds of thousands of cetaceans move north out of polar waters in the austral autumn interacting in food webs across the Southern Hemisphere, and a few species cross the equator. A number of species migrate into the east and west ocean-basin boundary current and continental shelf regions of the major southern continents. Human travel in and out of the Southern Ocean region includes fisheries, tourism, and scientific vessels in all ocean sectors. These operations arise from many nations, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, and are important in local communities as well as national economic, scientific, and political activities. As a result of the extensive connectivity, future changes in Southern Ocean ecosystems will have consequences throughout the Earth system, affecting ecosystem services with socio-economic impacts throughout the world. The high level of connectivity also means that changes and policy decisions in marine ecosystems outside the Southern Ocean have consequences for ecosystems south of the Antarctic Polar Front. Knowledge of Southern Ocean ecosystems and their global connectivity is critical for interpreting current change, projecting future change impacts, and identifying integrated strategies for conserving and managing both the Southern Ocean and the broader Earth system