Appendix C. Model validation comparing the status (presence or absence) of Zostera muelleri at each of the case study locations predicted by the model with past seagrass distribution maps for Moreton Bay.

Model validation comparing the status (presence or absence) of Zostera muelleri at each of the case study locations predicted by the model with past seagrass distribution maps for Moreton Bay

Appendix A. Combinations of probabilities used for each of the input nodes to predict the likelihood of starting seagrass biomass at different impact levels (Step 4) and to determine the effect of starting seagrass biomass on the likelihood of more seagrass biomass (Step 5).

Combinations of probabilities used for each of the input nodes to predict the likelihood of starting seagrass biomass at different impact levels (Step 4) and to determine the effect of starting seagrass biomass on the likelihood of more seagrass biomass (Step 5)

Data_Sheet_1_Highly Disturbed Populations of Seagrass Show Increased Resilience but Lower Genotypic Diversity.DOCX

<p>The response of seagrass systems to a severe disturbance provides an opportunity to quantify the degree of resilience in different meadows, and subsequently to test whether there is a genetic basis to resilience. We used existing data on levels of long-standing disturbance from poor water quality, and the responses of seagrass (Zostera muelleri) after an extreme flood event in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Sites were grouped into high and low disturbance categories, in which seagrass showed high and low resilience, respectively, as determined by measuring rates of key feedback processes (nutrient removal, suppression of sediment resuspension, and algal grazing), and physiological and morphological traits. Theoretically, meadows with higher genotypic diversity would be expected to have greater resilience. However, because the more resilient meadows occur in areas historically exposed to high disturbance, the alternative is also possible, that selection will have resulted in a narrower, less diverse subset of genotypes than in less disturbed meadows. Levels of genotypic and genetic diversity (allelic richness) based on 11 microsatellite loci, were positively related (R² = 0.58). Genotypic diversity was significantly lower at highly disturbed sites (R = 0.49) than at less disturbed sites (R = 0.61). Genotypic diversity also showed a negative trend with two morphological characteristics known to confer resilience on seagrass in Moreton Bay, leaf chlorophyll concentrations and seagrass biomass. Genetic diversity did not differ between disturbed and undisturbed sites. We postulate that the explanation for these results is historical selection for genotypes that confer protection against disturbance, reducing diversity in meadows that contemporarily show greater resilience.</p

Edging along a Warming Coast: A Range Extension for a Common Sandy Beach Crab

<div><p>Determining the position of range edges is the first step in developing an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in play as species’ ranges shift in response to climate change. Here, we study the leading (poleward) range edge of <i>Ocypode cordimanus</i>, a ghost crab that is common along the central to northern east coast of Australia. Our study establishes the poleward range edge of adults of this species to be at Merimbula (36.90°S, 149.93°E), 270 km (along the coast) south of the previous southernmost museum record. We also establish that dispersal of pelagic larvae results in recruitment to beaches 248 km (along the coast; 0.9° of latitude) beyond the adult range edge we have documented here. Although we cannot conclusively demonstrate that the leading range edge for this species has moved polewards in response to climate change, this range edge does fall within a “hotspot” of ocean warming, where surface isotherms are moving southwards along the coast at 20–50 km.decade^-1; coastal air temperatures in the region are also warming. If these patterns persist, future range extensions could be anticipated. On the basis of their ecology, allied with their occupancy of ocean beaches, which are home to taxa that are particularly amenable to climate-change studies, we propose that ghost crabs like <i>O</i>. <i>cordimanus</i> represent ideal model organisms with which to study ecological and evolutionary processes associated with climate change. The fact that “hotspots” of ocean warming on four other continents correspond with poleward range edges of ghost crab species suggests that results of hypothesis tests could be generalized, yielding excellent opportunities to rapidly progress knowledge in this field.</p></div

The distribution of adult <i>Ocypode cordimanus</i>.

<p>(A) along the central and south coast of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, as determined by detailed observation in January and February 2013. Inset provides spatial context at the continental scale. (B) Finer resolution sampling was undertaken in the vicinity of the range edge; geographic context provided by the box in (A). White diamonds indicate confirmed presence of the species; black squares indicate confirmed absence. Cities and towns mentioned in the manuscript are indicated by white circles; significant coastal features are labeled in italics. Underlying data are available in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0141976#pone.0141976.s001" target="_blank">S1 Table</a>; coastline derived by modification of a shapefile sourced from Geoscience Australia (<a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/geodata-coast-100k-2004" target="_blank">https://data.gov.au/dataset/geodata-coast-100k-2004</a>).</p

Coastal air (CRU TS3.22; 0.5° grid) and seawater (HadISST1.1; 1° grid) temperature trends over the 25-year period 1989–2013, inclusive.

<p>(A) Mean annual temperatures, and (B) temporal trends in temperature change, as indicated by the slope of a simple linear regression of mean annual temperature as a function of time. Temperature grids were clipped to the coast at a resolution of 0.1°; unfilled partial grid squares evident at various points along the coast had no corresponding sea-surface temperatures, but may be assumed to have similar temperatures/trends as adjacent cells. Coastline derived by modification of a shapefile sourced from Geoscience Australia (<a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/geodata-coast-100k-2004" target="_blank">https://data.gov.au/dataset/geodata-coast-100k-2004</a>).</p

Maslo_PeerJ_clutchloss_rawdata

The file provides the fate of each clutch in the study, along with the predictor variables associated with that clutch

Mangrove Habitat Use by Juvenile Reef Fish: Meta-Analysis Reveals that Tidal Regime Matters More than Biogeographic Region

<div><p>Identification of critical life-stage habitats is key to successful conservation efforts. Juveniles of some species show great flexibility in habitat use while other species rely heavily on a restricted number of juvenile habitats for protection and food. Considering the rapid degradation of coastal marine habitats worldwide, it is important to evaluate which species are more susceptible to loss of juvenile nursery habitats and how this differs across large biogeographic regions. Here we used a meta-analysis approach to investigate habitat use by juvenile reef fish species in tropical coastal ecosystems across the globe. Densities of juvenile fish species were compared among mangrove, seagrass and coral reef habitats. In the Caribbean, the majority of species showed significantly higher juvenile densities in mangroves as compared to seagrass beds and coral reefs, while for the Indo-Pacific region seagrass beds harbored the highest overall densities. Further analysis indicated that differences in tidal amplitude, irrespective of biogeographic region, appeared to be the major driver for this phenomenon. In addition, juvenile reef fish use of mangroves increased with increasing water salinity. In the Caribbean, species of specific families (e.g. Lutjanidae, Haemulidae) showed a higher reliance on mangroves or seagrass beds as juvenile habitats than other species, whereas in the Indo-Pacific family-specific trends of juvenile habitat utilization were less apparent. The findings of this study highlight the importance of incorporating region-specific tidal inundation regimes into marine spatial conservation planning and ecosystem based management. Furthermore, the significant role of water salinity and tidal access as drivers of mangrove fish habitat use implies that changes in seawater level and rainfall due to climate change may have important effects on how juvenile reef fish use nearshore seascapes in the future.</p></div

Rank-order of species-specific habitat utilization patterns based on the weighted mean effect size (<i>d</i>+) ± bias-corrected 95% confidence interval (based on variability across study locations) for the Indo-Pacific region for a) seagrass (SG) – mangrove (MG) comparison, b) coral reef (RF) – seagrass comparison, and c) coral reef – mangrove comparison.

<p>If confidence intervals do not cross the vertical line at <i>d</i> = 0, the effect size is significant.</p

Mean effect size ± SE (based on variability across species) for densities of juvenile nursery species in different habitats as a function of tidal amplitude for the Caribbean (filled squares) and Indo-Pacific (open squares) regions, for a) seagrass (SG) – mangrove (MG) comparison, b) coral reef (RF) – seagrass comparison, and c) coral reef – mangrove comparison.

<p>Numbers in the graphs indicate: Belize (1), Curaçao (2), Aruba (3), Grand Cayman (4), Florida (5), Turks and Caicos Islands (6), Bimini (7), San Salvador (8), Andros (9), Abaco (10), Bermuda (11), Lee Stocking Island (12), Solomon Islands (13), Wakatobi (14), Ryukyu Islands (15), Moreton (16), Palm Islands (17), Kunduchi (18), Mafia (19), Mbegani (20) Zanzibar (21) and Pemba (22).</p