Predictive Methods in Cyber Defense: Current Experience and Research Challenges

Predictive analysis allows next-generation cyber defense that is more proactive than current approaches based on intrusion detection. In this paper, we discuss various aspects of predictive methods in cyber defense and illustrate them on three examples of recent approaches. The first approach uses data mining to extract frequent attack scenarios and uses them to project ongoing cyberattacks. The second approach uses a dynamic network entity reputation score to predict malicious actors. The third approach uses time series analysis to forecast attack rates in the network. This paper presents a unique evaluation of the three distinct methods in a common environment of an intrusion detection alert sharing platform, which allows for a comparison of the approaches and illustrates the capabilities of predictive analysis for current and future research and cybersecurity operations. Our experiments show that all three methods achieved a sufficient technology readiness level for experimental deployment in an operational setting with promising accuracy and usability. Namely prediction and projection methods, despite their differences, are highly usable for predictive blacklisting, the first provides a more detailed output, and the second is more extensible. Network security situation forecasting is lightweight and displays very high accuracy, but does not provide details on predicted events

Analysis of the Infection and the Injection Phases of the Telnet Botnets

With the number of Internet of Things devices increasing, also the number of vulnerable devices connected to the Internet increases. These devices can become part of botnets and cause damage to the Internet infrastructure. In this paper we study telnet botnets and their behaviour in the first two stages of its lifecycle - initial infection, and secondary infection. The main objective of this paper is to determine specific attributes of their behavior during these stages and design a model for profiling threat agents into telnet botnets groups. We implemented a telnet honeynet and analyzed collected data. Also, we applied clustering methods for security incident profiling. We consider K-modes and PAM clustering algorithms. We found out that a number of sessions and credential guessing are easily collected and United States of Americable attributes for threat agents profiling

Kriging Methodology and Its Development in Forecasting Econometric Time Series

One of the approaches for forecasting future values of a time series or unknown spatial data is kriging. The main objective of the paper is to introduce a general scheme of kriging in forecasting econometric time series using a family of linear regression time series models (shortly named as FDSLRM) which apply regression not only to a trend but also to a random component of the observed time series. Simultaneously performing a Monte Carlo simulation study with a real electricity consumption dataset in the R computational langure and environment, we investigate the well-known problem of “negative” estimates of variance components when kriging predictions fail. Our following theoretical analysis, including also the modern apparatus of advanced multivariate statistics, gives us the formulation and proof of a general theorem about the explicit form of moments (up to sixth order) for a Gaussian time series observation. This result provides a basis for further theoretical and computational research in the kriging methodology development

Two subterranean-dwelling spiders new to Slovakia (Araneae: Linyphiidae)

Studies of subterranean habitats in Slovakia revealed two rare linyphiid spider species new to the country, Pseudomaro aenigmaticus Denis, 1966 and Pseudocarorita thaleri (Saaristo, 1971). Pseudomaro aenigmaticus was recorded in the Malé Karpaty Mountains in western Slovakia. A male was captured in the limestone Plavecká Cave and a female was found in a granitoid mesovoid shallow substratum (MSS) in the Jajcajov jarok Valley. One pair of Pseudocarorita thaleri was found in the MSS in the Belinské skaly Nature Monument in the Cerová vrchovina Highland in southern Slovakia. This study also presents the characteristic habitus and habitats of the recorded spiders

Network Intrusion Detection with Threat Agent Profiling

With the increase in usage of computer systems and computer networks, the problem of intrusion detection in network security has become an important issue. In this paper, we discuss approaches that simplify network administrator’s work. We applied clustering methods for security incident profiling. We consider K-means, PAM, and CLARA clustering algorithms. For this purpose, we used data collected in Warden system from various security tools. We do not aim to differentiate between normal and abnormal network traffic, but we focus on grouping similar threat agents based on attributes of security events. We suggest a case of a fine classification and a case of a coarse classification and discuss advantages of both cases

Investigation of Calcium Forms in Lichens from Travertine Sites

Lichens are symbiotic organisms with an extraordinary capability to colonise areas of extreme climate and heavily contaminated sites, such as metal-rich habitats. Lichens have developed several mechanisms to overcome the toxicity of metals, including the ability to bind metal cations to extracellular sites of symbiotic partners and to subsequently form oxalates. Calcium is an essential alkaline earth element that is important in various cell processes. Calcium can serve as a metal ligand but can be toxic at elevated concentrations. This study investigated calcium-rich and calcium-poor sites and the lichen species that inhabit them (Cladonia sp.). The calcium content of these lichen species were analyzed, along with localized calcium oxalate formed in thalli collected from each site. The highest concentration of calcium was found in the lichen squamules, which can serve as a final deposit for detoxification. Interestingly, the highest content of calcium in Cladonia furcata was localized to the upper part of the thallus, which is the youngest. The produced calcium oxalates were species-specific. Whewellite (CaC2O4∙H2O) was formed in the case of C. furcata and weddellite (CaC2O4∙2H2O) was identified in C. foliacea