Progress of Trachoma Mapping in Mainland Tanzania: Results of Baseline Surveys from 2012 to 2014.

PURPOSE: Following surveys in 2004-2006 in 50 high-risk districts of mainland Tanzania, trachoma was still suspected to be widespread elsewhere. We report on baseline surveys undertaken from 2012 to 2014. METHODS: A total of 31 districts were surveyed. In 2012 and 2013, 12 at-risk districts were selected based on proximity to known trachoma endemic districts, while in 2014, trachoma rapid assessments were undertaken, and 19 of 55 districts prioritized for baseline surveys. A multi-stage cluster random sampling methodology was applied whereby 20 villages (clusters) and 36 households per cluster were surveyed. Eligible participants, children aged 1-9 years and people aged 15 years and older, were examined for trachoma using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. RESULTS: A total of 23,171 households were surveyed and 104,959 participants (92.3% of those enumerated) examined for trachoma signs. A total of 44,511 children aged 1-9 years and 65,255 people aged 15 years and older were examined for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trichiasis, respectively. Prevalence of TF varied by district, ranging from 0.0% (95% confidence interval, CI 0.0-0.1%) in Mbinga to 11.8% (95% CI 6.8-16.5%) in Chunya. Trichiasis prevalence was lowest in Urambo (0.03%, 95% CI 0.00-0.24%) and highest in Kibaha (1.08%, 95% CI 0.74-1.43%). CONCLUSION: Only three districts qualified for mass drug administration with azithromycin. Trichiasis is still a public health problem in many districts, thus community-based trichiasis surgery should be considered to prevent blindness due to trachoma. These findings will facilitate achievement of trachoma elimination objectives

The Importance of Failure: How Doing Impact Surveys That Fail Saves Trachoma Programs Money.

Trachoma programs use annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) in evaluation units (EUs) that generally encompass 100,000-250,000 people. After one, three, or five MDA rounds, programs undertake impact surveys. Where impact survey prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1- to 9-year-olds is ≥ 5%, ≥ 1 additional MDA rounds are recommended before resurvey. Impact survey costs, and the proportion of impact surveys returning TF prevalence ≥ 5% (the failure rate or, less pejoratively, the MDA continuation rate), therefore influence the cost of eliminating trachoma. We modeled, for illustrative EU sizes, the financial cost of undertaking MDA with and without conducting impact surveys. As an example, we retrospectively assessed how conducting impact surveys affected costs in the United Republic of Tanzania for 2017-2018. For EUs containing 100,000 people, the median (interquartile range) cost of continuing MDA without doing impact surveys is USD 28,957 (17,581-36,197) per EU per year, whereas continuing MDA solely where indicated by impact survey results costs USD 17,564 (12,158-21,694). If the mean EU population is 100,000, then continuing MDA without impact surveys becomes advantageous in financial cost terms only when the continuation rate exceeds 71%. For the United Republic of Tanzania in 2017-2018, doing impact surveys saved enough money to provide MDA for > 1,000,000 people. Although trachoma impact surveys have a nontrivial cost, they generally save money, providing EUs have > 50,000 inhabitants, the continuation rate is not excessive, and they generate reliable data. If all EUs pass their impact surveys, then we have waited too long to do them

Risk factors associated with failing pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS) in lymphatic filariasis elimination programs: Results of a multi-country analysis.

Achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem requires a minimum of five effective rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and demonstrating low prevalence in subsequent assessments. The first assessments recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) are sentinel and spot-check sites-referred to as pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS)-in each implementation unit after MDA. If pre-TAS shows that prevalence in each site has been lowered to less than 1% microfilaremia or less than 2% antigenemia, the implementation unit conducts a TAS to determine whether MDA can be stopped. Failure to pass pre-TAS means that further rounds of MDA are required. This study aims to understand factors influencing pre-TAS results using existing programmatic data from 554 implementation units, of which 74 (13%) failed, in 13 countries. Secondary data analysis was completed using existing data from Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti, Indonesia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda. Additional covariate data were obtained from spatial raster data sets. Bivariate analysis and multilinear regression were performed to establish potential relationships between variables and the pre-TAS result. Higher baseline prevalence and lower elevation were significant in the regression model. Variables statistically significantly associated with failure (p-value ≤0.05) in the bivariate analyses included baseline prevalence at or above 5% or 10%, use of Filariasis Test Strips (FTS), primary vector of Culex, treatment with diethylcarbamazine-albendazole, higher elevation, higher population density, higher enhanced vegetation index (EVI), higher annual rainfall, and 6 or more rounds of MDA. This paper reports for the first time factors associated with pre-TAS results from a multi-country analysis. This information can help countries more effectively forecast program activities, such as the potential need for more rounds of MDA, and prioritize resources to ensure adequate coverage of all persons in areas at highest risk of failing pre-TAS

Enabling targeted mass drug administration for schistosomiasis in north-western Tanzania:Exploring the use of geostatistical modeling to inform planning at sub-district level

INTRODUCTION: Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease in Tanzania affecting over 50% of the population. Current control strategies involve mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns at the district level, which have led to problems of over- and under-treatment in different areas. WHO guidelines have called for more targeted MDA to circumvent these problems, however a scarcity of prevalence data inhibits decision makers from prioritizing sub-district areas for MDA. This study demonstrated how geostatistics can be used to inform planning for targeted MDA. METHODS: Geostatistical sub-district (ward-level) prevalence estimates were generated through combining a zero-inflated poisson model and kriging approach (regression kriging). To make predictions, the model used prevalence survey data collected in 2021 of 17,400 school children in six regions of Tanzania, along with several open source ecological and socio-demographic variables with known associations with schistosomiasis. RESULTS: The model results show that regression kriging can be used to effectively predict the ward level parasite prevalence of the two species of Schistosoma endemic to the study area. Kriging was found to further improve the regression model fit, with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.51 and 0.32 for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis, respectively. Targeted treatment based on model predictions would represent a shift in treatment away from 193 wards estimated to be over-treated to 149 wards that would have been omitted from the district level MDA. CONCLUSIONS: Geostatistical models can help to support NTD program efficiency and reduce disease transmission by facilitating WHO recommended targeted MDA treatment through provision of prevalence estimates where data is scarce.</p

The rationale and cost-effectiveness of a confirmatory mapping tool for lymphatic filariasis: Examples from Ethiopia and Tanzania

<div><p>Endemicity mapping is required to determining whether a district requires mass drug administration (MDA). Current guidelines for mapping LF require that two sites be selected per district and within each site a convenience sample of 100 adults be tested for antigenemia or microfilaremia. One or more confirmed positive tests in either site is interpreted as an indicator of potential transmission, prompting MDA at the district-level. While this mapping strategy has worked well in high-prevalence settings, imperfect diagnostics and the transmission potential of a single positive adult have raised concerns about the strategy’s use in low-prevalence settings. In response to these limitations, a statistically rigorous confirmatory mapping strategy was designed as a complement to the current strategy when LF endemicity is uncertain. Under the new strategy, schools are selected by either systematic or cluster sampling, depending on population size, and within each selected school, children 9–14 years are sampled systematically. All selected children are tested and the number of positive results is compared against a critical value to determine, with known probabilities of error, whether the average prevalence of LF infection is likely below a threshold of 2%. This confirmatory mapping strategy was applied to 45 districts in Ethiopia and 10 in Tanzania, where initial mapping results were considered uncertain. In 42 Ethiopian districts, and all 10 of the Tanzanian districts, the number of antigenemic children was below the critical cutoff, suggesting that these districts do not require MDA. Only three Ethiopian districts exceeded the critical cutoff of positive results. Whereas the current World Health Organization guidelines would have recommended MDA in all 55 districts, the present results suggest that only three of these districts requires MDA. By avoiding unnecessary MDA in 52 districts, the confirmatory mapping strategy is estimated to have saved a total of $9,293,219.</p></div

Decision rules for confirmatory mapping surveys.

<p>Decision rules for confirmatory mapping surveys.</p

Cost savings resulting from confirmatory mapping in Ethiopia and Tanzania, calculated by comparing the costs of the mapping surveys with the averted costs for districts that passed and did not required MDA treatment.

<p>Cost savings resulting from confirmatory mapping in Ethiopia and Tanzania, calculated by comparing the costs of the mapping surveys with the averted costs for districts that passed and did not required MDA treatment.</p

Results from the standard WHO mapping protocol (adults >15 years in two villages per district) from same districts as the confirmatory mapping tool implementation in Tanzania in 2015.

<p>Results from the standard WHO mapping protocol (adults >15 years in two villages per district) from same districts as the confirmatory mapping tool implementation in Tanzania in 2015.</p