Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Abstract. We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km2) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies

On the auxetic behaviour of metamaterials with re-entrant cell structures

In the present paper a two dimensional plate, made by structural straight elements and showing an auxetic behaviour, is considered. Theoretical, experimental and numerical analyses for the characterisation of its mechanical properties are presented and compared. The main geometrical parameters of an elementary cell affecting the deformation behaviour are highlighted, with emphasis to the negative values of the Poisson’s ratio

Modelling shortwave and longwave downward radiation and air temperature driving ablation at the Forni Glacier (Stelvio National Park, Italy)

We focus here on modelling the meteorological parameters most influencing snow/ice melting over an alpine glacier. Specifically, we consider shortwave and longwave downward radiation, and air temperature. We set up and test a methodology for their accurate distribution at the glacier surface, which can be applied whenever: i) supraglacial meteoro-logical measurements are available or ii) weather data are acquired from a station quite close to the glacier. As a suitable site to test our approach we selected the Forni Glacier, in the Italian Alps, where an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) has been running since autumn 2005 thus giving a robust dataset for developing a field based modeling approach. First, we modelled and distributed the incoming solar radiation by taking into account actual atmospheric conditions, glacier topography and shading. Then, we modelled the incoming longwave radiation considering cloud-cover and air temperature. Third, we investigated a local lapse rate to depict the yearly variability of the vertical air temperature gradient, to assess the actual thermal conditions at different elevations. Finally, we compared the modeled values against data collected on the field. The results display that during the glacier ablation period (i.e.: May-September): i) our approach provides a good depiction of both point incoming solar and infrared radiation fluxes, ii) the spatial distribution of the incoming solar radiation we developed is satisfactory, iii) our tests suggest that the incoming longwave fluxes can be considered constant over the whole glacier ablation area thus neglecting its spatial distribution, and iv) the application of a local lapse rate provides a good distribution of air temperature at the glacier surface

Monophasic and Biphasic Electrical Stimulation Induces a Precardiac Differentiation in Progenitor Cells Isolated from Human Heart

Electrical stimulation (ES) of cells has been shown to induce a variety of responses, such as cytoskeleton rearrangements, migration, proliferation, and differentiation. In this study, we have investigated whether monophasic and biphasic pulsed ES could exert any effect on the proliferation and differentiation of human cardiac progenitor cells (hCPCs) isolated from human heart fragments. Cells were cultured under continuous exposure to monophasic or biphasic ES with fixed cycles for 1 or 3 days. Results indicate that neither stimulation protocol affected cell viability, while the cell shape became more elongated and reoriented more perpendicular to the electric field direction. Moreover, the biphasic ES clearly induced the upregulation of early cardiac transcription factors, MEF2D, GATA-4, and Nkx2.5, as well as the de novo expression of the late cardiac sarcomeric proteins, troponin T, cardiac alpha actinin, and SERCA 2a. Both treatments increased the expression of connexin 43 and its relocation to the cell membrane, but biphasic ES was faster and more effective. Finally, when hCPCs were exposed to both monophasic and biphasic ES, they expressed de novo the mRNA of the voltage-dependent calcium channel Cav 3.1(α(1G)) subunit, which is peculiar of the developing heart. Taken together, these results show that ES alone is able to set the conditions for early differentiation of adult hCPCs toward a cardiac phenotype

Analysis of changes in crop farming in the Dudh Koshi (Nepal) driven by climate changes

Nepal is one of the poorest nations of the world and the Koshi Basin includes some of the poorest regions of this country. It's farming system is subsistence agriculture, mainly rainfed, with crop productivity among the lowest in South Asia. Nepal is also severely impacted by climate changes, such as retreat of glaciers, rise in temperature, erratic rainfalls and increase in frequency of extreme weather. This paper describes the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land in Dudh Koshi during the last four decades (1970s-2010s), by mapping the farming of its four main cereals in the districts of Solukhumbu, Okhaldunga and Kothang from space. The analysis of satellite time series showed a 10% of increment in farmland from 1970s to 1990s, and about 60% in the following twenty years. With a shift of cropping to higher altitudes. Data belonging to of the second twenty years are strongly correlated with the population growth observed in the same period (0.97<0.99) and consistent with the average daily caloric intake. Finding confirms the result of recent studies that agriculture practices once distributed in lowland areas have now spread to higher altitudes and seems to suggest that demographic and socioeconomic pressures are driving the expansion, while climatic and topographic parameters are just channeling the expansion. Apart from any policies that could change the tack, Dudh Koshi should be able to meet the increasing demand of cereals in the near future and climate seems not being a limiting factor for further development as it will be the availability of an irrigation system

Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment

The mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayas (HKH) are considered Earth’s “third pole,” and water from there plays an essential role for downstream populations. The dynamics of glaciers in Karakoram are complex, and in recent decades the area has experienced unchanged ice cover, despite rapid decline elsewhere in the world (the Karakoram anomaly). Assessment of future water resources and hydrological variability under climate change in this area is greatly needed, but the hydrology of these high-altitude catchments is still poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on a particular watershed, the Shigar River with the control section at Shigar (about 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from two major glaciers (Baltoro and Biafo). Hydrological, meteorological, and glaciological data gathered during 3 years of field campaigns (2011–13) are used to set up a hydrological model, providing a depiction of instream flows, snowmelt, and ice cover thickness. The model is used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100, via climate projections provided by three state-of-the-art global climate models used in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Under all RCPs, future flows are predicted to increase until midcentury and then to decrease, but remaining mostly higher than control run values. Snowmelt is projected to occur earlier, while the ice melt component is expected to increase, with ice thinning considerably and even disappearing below 4000 m MSL until 2100

A simple model to evaluate ice melt over the ablation area of glaciers in the Central Karakoram National Park, Pakistan

This study provides an estimate of fresh water derived from ice melt for the ablation areas of glaciers in the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP), Pakistan. In the CKNP there are ~700 glaciers, covering ~4600 km2, with widespread debris cover (518 km2). To assess meltwater volume we applied a distributed model able to describe both debris-covered and debris-free ice ablation. The model was calibrated using data collected in the field in the CKNP area and validated by comparison with ablation data collected in the field, independent of the data used in building the model. During 23 July\u20139 August 2011, the mean model-estimated ablation in the CKNP was 0.024 m w.e./ d in debris covered areas and 0.037 m w.e./ d in debris-free areas. We found a mean error of +0.01 m w.e. (corresponding to 2%) and a root-mean-square error equal to 0.09 m w.e. (17%). According to our model, the ablation areas of all the glaciers in the CKNP produced a water volume of 1.963 km3 during the study period. Finally, we performed several sensitivity tests for assessing the impact of the input data variations

Inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes of the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP – Pakistan)

This study presents a map reporting valuable information on the cryosphere of the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP, the largest protected area of Pakistan and the highest park in the world). All the information is provided considering the CKNP as a whole, and in detail by dividing it into five basins (i.e. Shigar, Hunza, Shyok, Upper Indus, and Gilgit). The glacier inventory reports 608 ice bodies covering 3680 km2 ( 3c35% of the CKNP area), with a total glacier volume of ca. 532 km3. In addition, we modeled the meltwater from glacier ice ablation over the period 23 July to 9 August 2011. The total melt amount is ca. 1.5 km3. Finally, we considered glacial lakes (202 water-bodies, covering 4 km2). For these latter glacier features, we also analyzed their potentially dangerous conditions and two lakes were found having such conditions