The components of the real exchange rate in Hungary

This paper provides a statistical analysis of the components of real exchange rate in Hungary for the period 1991-1996. The real exchange rate is decomposed into a tradable and a nontradable rate. The following main conclusions are valid: 1. The Balassa-Samuelson effect, which presumes a real appreciation when productivity in the tradable sector grows faster than in the nontradable sector, is markedly substantiated by the data for Hungary. 2. The homogeneity assumption of the traded sector is not justified by the data. The traded sector defined by the usual statistical terms does not indicate PPP to hold. 3. The relative (common currency) price of the traded sector shows fluctuations driven by changes in the nominal exchange rate. 4. Fluctuations in the relative (common currency) price of the traded sector are larger than fluctuations of relative prices of nontradables in terms of tradables. In other words prices of the traded and non-traded sectors behave similarly to nominal exchange rate shocks: they have similar inertia. 5. A summary conclusion comprising findings of 1-4: for Hungarian data the definition of statistical categories of trading and non-trading sectors are useful in separating industries according to their rate of technological change, but it is much less helpful in separating good substitutes from poor substitutes for internationally traded goods. In section 1 we describe the way we decomposed the real exchange rate. In section 2 we try to explain the determinants of the components, in section 3 we try to arrive to a quantification of the rate of change of the equilibrium real exchange rate in Hungary.

CEC5: On The Estimated Size of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in CEC5 Countries

In this paper we try to give a summary on the importance of the productivity based real appreciation e.g. the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect in five Central and Eastern European (CEC5) countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. We develop our approach from two directions. Firstly, we try to apply a common simple analytical framework for producing some stylised facts, and obtaining a “guesstimate” of relative price movements due to different sectoral productivity growth rates. Secondly, we try to summarise the econometric evidence available for the countries, both from individual country and panel estimates. It seems clear from the analyses, that both approaches gives a size of the BS effect not exceeding 2% per annum on CPI inflation vis-à-vis Germany. The numbers obtained are somewhat different, that one would conclude from the change in relative prices in the countries considered. This result might be explained by the fact, that the BS hypotheses did not hold exactly in the past, other factors like change in the sectoral wage rates, pricing behaviour and indermediate product prices also contributed to the behaviour of the nontradable and tradable price ratio. As these estimates are based on past data, when productivity differentials were higher than current figures, it is very likely, that as the catch-up goes by, the possible magnitude of the effect will be even smaller. From this one might conclude that real convergence should not necessary danger the fulfilment of the Maastricht Treaty Criteria on inflation.

How Far has Trade Integration Advanced? An analysis of actual and potential trade of three Central and Eastern European countries

This paper investigates the trade integration of three Central and Eastern European countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, using the gravity model for trade as an analytical device. Beside the usual variables in such a model, we have also incorporated the FDI variables. According to our results, in the context of the most important Western European relations, it is Hungary that achieved the highest level of integration. Czech exports have also integrated, but there is still a very considerable potential there. Poland has integrated in exports to a much smaller extent than in imports. CEFTA-oriented trade has also gone up considerably, although the level of actual trade has not yet reached its full potential, except in the Czech Republic. Vis-a-vis South-East Asia, we have found overintegration for imports, but could see no signs of convergence for export towards this region. Our estimates support the trade-enhancing role of bilateral FDI. Paradoxically, the potential trade of the three countries estimated with FDI variables appears to be less than that suggested by the basic setup of the gravity model. We formulated two hypotheses to explain this, and supported one by a probit model. Finally, we tested for convergence and found that actual data indeed converged toward the estimated trade potential.

Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary

This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable and nontradable sector in relative price (nontradable/tradable) adjustments. We formulate a policy reaction function to separate the effect of tradable pricing shocks from policy shocks. The framework we use is a two sector open economy real exchange rate model. Its contemporaneous structure is used for the identification of structural shocks. Since the effect of policy shocks on tradable real exchange rate was not significant, our results suggest that nominal rigidities did not play an important role during the period under consideration. The evolution of nontradable prices and relative (nontradable/tradable) prices were well explained by nontradable output shocks. Thus, the Balassa-Samuelson-effect seems to have been at work in Hungary during the first eight years of transition.

Hungary in the NIGEM model

This paper presents a nationwide economy model for Hungary used by the National Bank of Hungary for analyzing the effects of world shocks, for quarterly forecasting exercises and other policy simulations. The study has two main goals: Firstly, we present the model for the Hungarian economy, developed in collaboration between the National Bank of Hungary and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The model is a one-sector aggregate economy model with a theoretically consistent supply side. A particular role is given to foreign direct investments in explaining the sources of growth both in the production process and foreign trade. Secondly, there is a brief discussion of the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model (NIGEM), to which the Hungarian model is linked. In this setup, we are also able to analyze the effect of world shocks on the domestic economy. For testing model properties, we present policy simulations for various shocks. A case study on the effect of the Russian crisis on Hungary is also discussed for the purpose of testing parameter adequacy.

Forecasting Hungarian Export Volume

The paper summarizes the research on forecasting the Hungarian export volume. We elaborated a two-step procedure. In the first step we forecasted foreign demand, then in the second step we forecasted Hungarian export using the best outcome of the first step together with real exchange rate and import series. We used several econometric techniques and tested our results statistically by two criteria. We compared the precision and stability of the different forecasts. The ARIMA forecasts were employed as a benchmark. We found that in terms of both criteria foreign demand forecasts were significantly better than those obtained with ARIMA. However, in the case of the Hungarian export volume our results were only better in terms of the stability properties. Therefore the choice between the different forecasting methods was not obvious, so a ’Consensus’ index was also computed as a weighted average of different forecasts, where the weights were negative functions of imprecision and instability.

Overdamped mechanical model of myosin II

Due to their small size molecular systems are often overdamped and they are affected by significant fluctuations due to thermal forces. In this paper we investigate the effect of overdamping on a simple mechanical model of myosin II, the motor protein responsible for muscle contraction. We demonstrate that this model, based on the experimentally observed shape of the protein’s subdomains, is consistent with the available experimental results. We also shed new light on the debate whether the powerstroke is a sudden conformational change followed by relaxation to equilibrium or a thermal fluctuation followed by a fixation by a ratchet-like mechanism in an energetically favourable conformation: we propose that these mechanisms coexist

A zöldfalak alkalmazásának lehetséges előnyei Kecskemét középületeinek példáján

Munkánkban a zöld falak alkalmazásának lehetőségeire, valamint mikroklíma módosító szerepükre és az energia-megtakarításhoz történő hozzájárulásuk lehetőségeire koncentrálunk Kecskemét önkormányzati tulajdonban lévő középületeinek felmérése alapján. Célunk egyrészt az energiamegtakarításhoz való hozzájárulás bemutatása, amely az épületek fűtéssei és légkondicionálással szembeni kisebb igényéből fakad. Másrészt vizsgáljuk a szén-dioxid kibocsátás mérséklésének nagyságrendjét, amely tanulmányok szerint 2,3 kg co2 megkötést jelent négyzetméterenként évente - hozzájárulva ezzel az üvegházhatású gázok légkörbe jutásának csökkentéséhez. Ehhez kapcsolódik az oxigén megkötésének lehetséges mértéke, amely a levegőminőség számottevő javulását eredményezheti. Harmadrészt bemutatjuk annak a hőmérsékleti mérésnek az első eredményeit, amelyek egy zöldfallal burkolt épület esetében a kültéri és beltéri hőmérsékletek közötti eltérésekre világítanak rá

Energia-megtakarítás és klímavédelem zöldfalak alkalmazásával

Munkánkban a zöldfalak alkalmazásának lehetőségeire, valamint mikroklíma módosító szerepükre és az energiamegtakarításhoz történő hozzájárulásuk lehetőségeire koncentrálunk Kecskemét önkormányzati tulajdonban lévő középületeinek felmérése alapján. Célunk egyrészt az energiamegtakarításhoz való hozzájárulás bemutatása, amely az épületek fűtéssel és légkondicionálással szembeni kisebb igényéből fakad. Vizsgáljuk továbbá a szén-dioxid kibocsátás mérséklésének nagyságrendjét, valamint bemutatjuk annak a hőmérsékleti mérésnek az első eredményeit, amelyek egy zöldfallal burkolt épület esetében a kültéri és beltéri hőmérsékletek közötti eltérésekre világítanak rá