Bayesian Forecast Combination for VAR Models

We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key dierence from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty regarding which endogenous variables to include in the model. That is, all models include the forecast variables, but may otherwise have diering sets of endogenous variables. This is a dicult problem to tackle with a traditional Bayesian approach. Our solution is to focus on the forecasting performance for the variables of interest and we construct model weights from the predictive likelihood of the forecast variables. The procedure is evaluated in a small simulation study and found to perform competitively in applications to real world data.Bayesian model averaging; Predictive likelihood; GDP forecasts

On the uniqueness and global dynamics of AdS spacetimes

We study global aspects of complete, non-singular asymptotically locally AdS spacetimes solving the vacuum Einstein equations whose conformal infinity is an arbitrary globally stationary spacetime. It is proved that any such solution which is asymptotically stationary to the past and future is itself globally stationary. This gives certain rigidity or uniqueness results for exact AdS and related spacetimes.Comment: 18pp, significant revision of v

An inverse association between plasma benzoxazinoid metabolites and PSA after rye intake in men with prostate cancer revealed with a new method

Prostate cancer (PC) is a common cancer among men, and preventive strategies are warranted. Benzoxazinoids (BXs) in rye have shown potential against PC in vitro but human studies are lacking. The aim was to establish a quantitative method for analysis of BXs and investigate their plasma levels after a whole grain/bran rye vs refined wheat intervention, as well as exploring their association with PSA, in men with PC. A quantitative method for analysis of 22 BXs, including novel metabolites identified by mass spectrometry and NMR, was established, and applied to plasma samples from a randomized crossover study where patients with indolent PC (n = 17) consumed 485 g whole grain rye/rye bran or fiber supplemented refined wheat daily for 6 wk. Most BXs were significantly higher in plasma after rye (0.3-19.4 nmol/L in plasma) vs. refined wheat (0.05-2.9 nmol/L) intake. HBOA-glc, 2-HHPAA, HBOA-glcA, 2-HPAA-glcA were inversely correlated to PSA in plasma (p < 0.04). To conclude, BXs in plasma, including metabolites not previously analyzed, were quantified. BX metabolites were significantly higher after rye vs refined wheat consumption. Four BX-related metabolites were inversely associated with PSA, which merits further investigation

D-cycloserine augmentation of exposure-based cognitive behavior therapy for anxiety, obsessive-compulsive, and posttraumatic stress disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data

Importance: Whether and under which conditions D-cycloserine (DCS) augments the effects of exposure-based cognitive behavior therapy for anxiety, obsessive-compulsive, and posttraumatic stress disorders is unclear. Objective: To clarify whether DCS is superior to placebo in augmenting the effects of cognitive behavior therapy for anxiety, obsessive-compulsive, and posttraumatic stress disorders and to evaluate whether antidepressants interact with DCS and the effect of potential moderating variables. Data Sources: PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO were searched from inception to February 10, 2016. Reference lists of previous reviews and meta-analyses and reports of randomized clinical trials were also checked. Study Selection: Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were (1) double-blind randomized clinical trials of DCS as an augmentation strategy for exposure-based cognitive behavior therapy and (2) conducted in humans diagnosed as having specific phobia, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder with or without agoraphobia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, or posttraumatic stress disorder. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Raw data were obtained from the authors and quality controlled. Data were ranked to ensure a consistent metric across studies (score range, 0-100). We used a 3-level multilevel model nesting repeated measures of outcomes within participants, who were nested within studies. Results: Individual participant data were obtained for 21 of 22 eligible trials, representing 1047 of 1073 eligible participants. When controlling for antidepressant use, participants receiving DCS showed greater improvement from pretreatment to posttreatment (mean difference, -3.62; 95% CI, -0.81 to -6.43; P = .01; d = -0.25) but not from pretreatment to midtreatment (mean difference, -1.66; 95% CI, -4.92 to 1.60; P = .32; d = -0.14) or from pretreatment to follow-up (mean difference, -2.98, 95% CI, -5.99 to 0.03; P = .05; d = -0.19). Additional analyses showed that participants assigned to DCS were associated with lower symptom severity than those assigned to placebo at posttreatment and at follow-up. Antidepressants did not moderate the effects of DCS. None of the prespecified patient-level or study-level moderators was associated with outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: D-cycloserine is associated with a small augmentation effect on exposure-based therapy. This effect is not moderated by the concurrent use of antidepressants. Further research is needed to identify patient and/or therapy characteristics associated with DCS response.2018-05-0

Absence of neuronal autoantibodies in neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus

International audienceThis study aimed to characterise both neuronal autoantibodies and levels of interferon α, two proposed causative agents in neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE). Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma from 35 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE; 15 with NPSLE) showed no antibodies against natively expressed N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDARs), or the surface of live hippocampal neurons. By comparison to controls (n = 104), patients with SLE had antibodies that bound to a peptide representing the extracellular domain of NMDARs (p < 0.0001), however, binding was retained against both rearranged peptides and no peptide (r = 0.85 and r = 0.79, respectively, p < 0.0001). In summary, neuronal-surface reactive antibodies were not detected in NPSLE. Further, while interferon α levels were higher in SLE (p < 0.0001), they lacked specificity for NPSLE. Our findings mandate a search for novel biomarkers in this condition. ANN NEUROL 2020

The phases of deuterium at extreme densities

We consider deuterium compressed to higher than atomic, but lower than nuclear densities. At such densities deuterium is a superconducting quantum liquid. Generically, two superconducting phases compete, a "ferromagnetic" and a "nematic" one. We provide a power counting argument suggesting that the dominant interactions in the deuteron liquid are perturbative (but screened) Coulomb interactions. At very high densities the ground state is determined by very small nuclear interaction effects that probably favor the ferromagnetic phase. At lower densities the symmetry of the theory is effectively enhanced to SU(3), and the quantum liquid enters a novel phase, neither ferromagnetic nor nematic. Our results can serve as a starting point for investigations of the phase dynamics of deuteron liquids, as well as exploration of the stability and dynamics of the rich variety of topological objects that may occur in phases of the deuteron quantum liquid, which range from Alice strings to spin skyrmions to Z_2 vortices.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures; v2: fixed typo

The Birth Weight Lowering C-Allele of rs900400 Near LEKR1 and CCNL1 Associates with Elevated Insulin Release following an Oral Glucose Challenge

BACKGROUND AND AIM:The first genome-wide association study on birth weight was recently published and the most significant associated birth weight lowering variant was the rs900400 C-allele located near LEKR1 and CCNL1. We aimed to replicate the association with birth weight in the Danish Inter99 study and furthermore to evaluate associations between rs900400 and indices of insulin secretion and insulin sensitivity obtained by oral glucose tolerance tests in adults from the Danish Inter99 study and the Finnish, Metabolic Syndrome in Men (METSIM) sample. METHODS:For 4,744 of 6,784 Inter99 participants, midwife journals were traced through the Danish State Archives and association of rs900400 with birth weight was examined. Associations between rs900400 and fasting serum insulin, fasting plasma glucose, insulinogenic index, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and disposition index were studied in 5,484 Danish and 6,915 Finnish non-diabetic individuals and combined in meta-analyses. RESULTS:The C-allele of rs900400 was associated with a 22.1 g lower birth weight ([-41.3;-3.0], P = 0.024) per allele. Moreover, in combined analyses of the Danish Inter99 study and the Finnish METSIM study we found that the birth weight lowering allele was associated with increased insulin release measured by the insulinogenic index (β = 2.25% [0.59; 3.91], P = 0.008) and with an increased disposition index (β = 1.76% [0.04; 3.49], P = 0.05). CONCLUSION:The birth weight lowering effect of the C-allele of rs900400 located near LEKR1 and CCNL1 was replicated in the Danish population. Furthermore the C-allele was associated with increased insulin response following oral glucose stimulation in a meta-analysis based on Danish and Finnish non-diabetic individuals