Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study

Working Draft, May 1995Cyclicality is a well known and accepted fact of life in market-driven economies. Less well known or understood, however, is the phenomenon of amplification as one looks "upstream" in the industrial supply chain. This paper discusses and explains the amplification phenomenon and its implications through the lens of one "upstream" industry that is notorious for the intensity of the business cycles it faces: the machine tool industry. Using a sparse simulation model, we have replicated much of the behavior seen in the industrial world in which machine tool companies operate. This model has allowed us to test and confirm many of our hypotheses. Two results stand out. Even though machine tool builders can do little to reduce their production volatility through choice of forecast rule, a longer view of the future leads companies to retain more of their skilled workforce. This is often cited as one of the advantages that European and Japanese companies have enjoyed: lower skilled employee turnover. The second, and most important result is that machine tool customers can do a great deal to reduce the volatility for machine tool builders through their choice of order forecast rule. Companies which use a longer horizon over which to forecast orders tend to impose less of their own volatility upon their supply base.MIT -- Leaders for Manufacturing, the International Motor Vehicle Program, the Industrial Performance Center, the International Center for Research on the Management of Technology, and the Japan Program; Chrysler, Intel, Sematech, and Texas Instruments

A Model for the Schottky Anomaly in Metallic Nd2−yCeyCuO4Nd_{2-y}Ce_{y}CuO_{4}

We present a simple model for the doped compound $Nd_{2-y}Ce_{y}CuO_{4}$, in order to explain some recent experimental results on the latter. Within a Hartree-Fock context, we start from an impurity Anderson-like model and consider the magnetic splitting of the $Nd$-$4f$ ground state Kramers doublet due to exchange interactions with the ordered $Cu$ moments. Our results are in very good agreement with the experimental data, yielding a Schottky anomaly peak for the specific heat that reduces its amplitude, broadens and shifts to lower temperatures, upon $Ce$ doping. For overdoped compounds at low temperatures, the specific heat behaves linearly and the magnetic susceptibility is constant. A smooth transition from this Fermi liquid like behavior ocurrs as temperature is increased and at high temperatures the susceptibility exhibits a Curie-like behavior. Finally, we discuss some improvements our model is amenable to incorporate.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, and 13 reference

The fine-tuning cost of the likelihood in SUSY models

In SUSY models, the fine tuning of the electroweak (EW) scale with respect to their parameters gamma_i={m_0, m_{1/2}, mu_0, A_0, B_0,...} and the maximal likelihood L to fit the experimental data are usually regarded as two different problems. We show that, if one regards the EW minimum conditions as constraints that fix the EW scale, this commonly held view is not correct and that the likelihood contains all the information about fine-tuning. In this case we show that the corrected likelihood is equal to the ratio L/Delta of the usual likelihood L and the traditional fine tuning measure Delta of the EW scale. A similar result is obtained for the integrated likelihood over the set {gamma_i}, that can be written as a surface integral of the ratio L/Delta, with the surface in gamma_i space determined by the EW minimum constraints. As a result, a large likelihood actually demands a large ratio L/Delta or equivalently, a small chi^2_{new}=chi^2_{old}+2*ln(Delta). This shows the fine-tuning cost to the likelihood (chi^2_{new}) of the EW scale stability enforced by SUSY, that is ignored in data fits. A good chi^2_{new}/d.o.f.\approx 1 thus demands SUSY models have a fine tuning amount Delta<<exp(d.o.f./2), which provides a model-independent criterion for acceptable fine-tuning. If this criterion is not met, one can thus rule out SUSY models without a further chi^2/d.o.f. analysis. Numerical methods to fit the data can easily be adapted to account for this effect.Comment: 10 pages (v3: small comment added

Ferromagnetic phase transition and Bose-Einstein condensation in spinor Bose gases

Phase transitions in spinor Bose gases with ferromagnetic (FM) couplings are studied via mean-field theory. We show that an infinitesimal value of the coupling can induce a FM phase transition at a finite temperature always above the critical temperature of Bose-Einstein condensation. This contrasts sharply with the case of Fermi gases, in which the Stoner coupling $I_s$ can not lead to a FM phase transition unless it is larger than a threshold value $I_0$. The FM coupling also increases the critical temperatures of both the ferromagnetic transition and the Bose-Einstein condensation.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

The Hubbard model with smooth boundary conditions

We apply recently developed smooth boundary conditions to the quantum Monte Carlo simulation of the two-dimensional Hubbard model. At half-filling, where there is no sign problem, we show that the thermodynamic limit is reached more rapidly with smooth rather than with periodic or open boundary conditions. Away from half-filling, where ordinarily the simulation cannot be carried out at low temperatures due to the existence of the sign problem, we show that smooth boundary conditions allow us to reach significantly lower temperatures. We examine pairing correlation functions away from half-filling in order to determine the possible existence of a superconducting state. On a $10\times 10$ lattice for $U=4$, at a filling of $\langle n \rangle = 0.87$ and an inverse temperature of $\beta=10$, we did find enhancement of the $d$-wave correlations with respect to the non-interacting case, a possible sign of $d$-wave superconductivity.Comment: 16 pages RevTeX, 9 postscript figures included (Figure 1 will be faxed on request

Stakeholder narratives on trypanosomiasis, their effect on policy and the scope for One Health

Background This paper explores the framings of trypanosomiasis, a widespread and potentially fatal zoonotic disease transmitted by tsetse flies (Glossina species) affecting both humans and livestock. This is a country case study focusing on the political economy of knowledge in Zambia. It is a pertinent time to examine this issue as human population growth and other factors have led to migration into tsetse-inhabited areas with little historical influence from livestock. Disease transmission in new human-wildlife interfaces such as these is a greater risk, and opinions on the best way to manage this are deeply divided. Methods A qualitative case study method was used to examine the narratives on trypanosomiasis in the Zambian policy context through a series of key informant interviews. Interviewees included key actors from international organisations, research organisations and local activists from a variety of perspectives acknowledging the need to explore the relationships between the human, animal and environmental sectors. Principal Findings Diverse framings are held by key actors looking from, variously, the perspectives of wildlife and environmental protection, agricultural development, poverty alleviation, and veterinary and public health. From these viewpoints, four narratives about trypanosomiasis policy were identified, focused around four different beliefs: that trypanosomiasis is protecting the environment, is causing poverty, is not a major problem, and finally, that it is a Zambian rather than international issue to contend with. Within these narratives there are also conflicting views on the best control methods to use and different reasoning behind the pathways of response. These are based on apparently incompatible priorities of people, land, animals, the economy and the environment. The extent to which a One Health approach has been embraced and the potential usefulness of this as a way of reconciling the aims of these framings and narratives is considered throughout the paper. Conclusions/Significance While there has historically been a lack of One Health working in this context, the complex, interacting factors that impact the disease show the need for cross-sector, interdisciplinary decision making to stop rival narratives leading to competing actions. Additional recommendations include implementing: surveillance to assess under-reporting of disease and consequential under-estimation of disease risk; evidence-based decision making; increased and structurally managed funding across countries; and focus on interactions between disease drivers, disease incidence at the community level, and poverty and equity impacts

Critical Behavior of the Supersolid transition in Bose-Hubbard Models

We study the phase transitions of interacting bosons at zero temperature between superfluid (SF) and supersolid (SS) states. The latter are characterized by simultaneous off-diagonal long-range order and broken translational symmetry. The critical phenomena is described by a long-wavelength effective action, derived on symmetry grounds and verified by explicit calculation. We consider two types of supersolid ordering: checkerboard (X) and collinear (C), which are the simplest cases arising in two dimensions on a square lattice. We find that the SF--CSS transition is in the three-dimensional XY universality class. The SF--XSS transition exhibits non-trivial new critical behavior, and appears, within a $d=3-\epsilon$ expansion to be driven generically first order by fluctuations. However, within a one--loop calculation directly in $d=2$ a strong coupling fixed point with striking ``non-Bose liquid'' behavior is found. At special isolated multi-critical points of particle-hole symmetry, the system falls into the 3d Ising universality class.Comment: RevTeX, 24 pages, 16 figures. Also available at http://www.cip.physik.tu-muenchen.de/tumphy/d/T34/Mitarbeiter/frey.htm

(d,n) Reaction Studies at 80 MeV

This research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation Grant NSF PHy 87-1440

Classification of a supersolid: Trial wavefunctions, Symmetry breakings and Excitation spectra

A state of matter is characterized by its symmetry breaking and elementary excitations. A supersolid is a state which breaks both translational symmetry and internal $U(1)$ symmetry. Here, we review some past and recent works in phenomenological Ginsburg-Landau theories, ground state trial wavefunctions and microscopic numerical calculations. We also write down a new effective supersolid Hamiltonian on a lattice. The eigenstates of the Hamiltonian contains both the ground state wavefunction and all the excited states (supersolidon) wavefunctions. We contrast various kinds of supersolids in both continuous systems and on lattices, both condensed matter and cold atom systems. We provide additional new insights in studying their order parameters, symmetry breaking patterns, the excitation spectra and detection methods.Comment: REVTEX4, 19 pages, 3 figure

Application of Time Transfer Function to McVittie Spacetime: Gravitational Time Delay and Secular Increase in Astronomical Unit

We attempt to calculate the gravitational time delay in a time-dependent gravitational field, especially in McVittie spacetime, which can be considered as the spacetime around a gravitating body such as the Sun, embedded in the FLRW (Friedmann-Lema\^itre-Robertson-Walker) cosmological background metric. To this end, we adopt the time transfer function method proposed by Le Poncin-Lafitte {\it et al.} (Class. Quant. Grav. 21:4463, 2004) and Teyssandier and Le Poncin-Lafitte (Class. Quant. Grav. 25:145020, 2008), which is originally related to Synge's world function $\Omega(x_A, x_B)$ and enables to circumvent the integration of the null geodesic equation. We re-examine the global cosmological effect on light propagation in the solar system. The round-trip time of a light ray/signal is given by the functions of not only the spacial coordinates but also the emission time or reception time of light ray/signal, which characterize the time-dependency of solutions. We also apply the obtained results to the secular increase in the astronomical unit, reported by Krasinsky and Brumberg (Celest. Mech. Dyn. Astron. 90:267, 2004), and we show that the leading order terms of the time-dependent component due to cosmological expansion is 9 orders of magnitude smaller than the observed value of $d{\rm AU}/dt$, i.e., $15 \pm 4$ ~[m/century]. Therefore, it is not possible to explain the secular increase in the astronomical unit in terms of cosmological expansion.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in General Relativity and Gravitatio