Climate Variability Poses a Correlated Risk to Global Food Production

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which refers to a coupling between equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmosphere anomalies, is a major source of interannual climate variability. Although it is fundamentally a tropical Pacific phenomena, both warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events alter atmospheric circulations -- and subsequently temperature and precipitation patterns -- well into the mid- latitudes. Furthermore, both El Niño and La Niña have characteristic multi-year life cycles of sea surface temperature and zonal wind anomalies. The research in this thesis focuses on understanding whether the global teleconnections and multi-year evolution of El Niño and La Niña imposes a risk of synchronous or sequential crop failures relevant to global food production. In the first chapter, which focuses on maize, wheat and soy in the Americas, we analyze the dynamics underlying ENSO life cycles to illustrate which aspects of the system are most important for agriculture. In North America, the same-season teleconnections affecting soybean and maize have been well studied, but we demonstrate the importance of lagged soil moisture teleconnections for wheat in the southern Great Plains. In South America, peak ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnections are concurrent with, and therefore critical for, wheat and maize growing seasons while soil moisture memory in Argentina plays an important role during the soybean growing season In the second chapter we show how the teleconnections from chapter one lead to correlated crop production anomalies in North and South America. We estimate the magnitude of ENSO-induced Pan-American production anomalies and discuss how increasing crop harvesting frequency may affect Pan-American production variability. We find that ENSO-induced production anomalies are greatest for maize, with median anomalies of about 5% of Pan-American production. After broadly characterizing ENSO-induced production anomalies, we demonstrate that they are not static in time. Increasing crop harvesting frequency in Brazil has affected the correlated risks posed by ENSO to soybeans and maize. In the third chapter we expand our analysis of agriculturally relevant teleconnections to the greater Pacific Basin region, and move beyond observations into model simulations. In this chapter we propose a coherent framework for understanding how trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to crop yields in major agricultural belts of the Americas, Australia and China over the course of an ENSO life cycle. The potential for consecutive ENSO-induced yield anomalies is of particular interest in these major food producing areas, where modest changes in yield have significant effects on global markets. We demonstrate that ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the following spring. These trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections are often (but not always) offsetting between major producing regions in the Americas and those in northern China or Australia. Multi-year La Niñas, however, only tend to force multi-year growing season anomalies in Argentina and Australia. In our final chapter we estimate of the relative contribution of major modes of climate variability to crop yield variability at the global scale. We consider the influence of not only ENSO, but also the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find that modes of climate variability account for 18.4%, 7.4% and 5.4% of globally aggregated maize, soy and wheat production variability, respectively. All modes of variability are important in at least one region studied, but only ENSO has a significant influence on global production. The low fractions of global-scale soy and wheat production variability attributable to climate is a result of significant but offsetting ENSO-induced yield anomalies in major production regions. Our findings represent an observationally-derived limit on the importance of climate variability to crop production stability that is not dependent on the fidelity of present generation of climate or crop models. In terms of synchronous crop failures within a single harvest year, we find that ENSO poses a significant correlated risk to maize yields but that it has a much smaller effect on global wheat and soy production. ENSO-forced maize production anomalies offset less than wheat and soy at the global scale because production is concentrated in regions with same-sign yield anomalies, notably the United States and Southeast Africa. To illustrate this point, we show that ENSO is largely responsible for the largest synchronous maize failure in the post-1960 historical record. These results demonstrate how the distribution of global cropland in relation to ENSO teleconnections contributes significantly to the presence for maize or absence for wheat and soy of synchronous global crop failure

International trade and the stability of food supplies in the Global South

Many countries in the Global South depend increasingly on imports to provide food for their rising populations. Trade is a key mechanism to address distributional issues, especially in countries with limited biophysical resources. In theory, by pooling the risk of crop failures via global trade, trade should stabilize food supplies. In practice, however, an over-reliance on imported food may be detrimental to domestic food stability. Here, we disentangle the role of imports from that of domestic production in countries in the Global South for three staple crops: maize, rice, and wheat. First, we use FAO data to differentiate between exposure to production variance in exporting countries, domestic production variance, and total supply variance. Next, we analyze trade relationships and assess the biophysical capacities of countries to investigate why some countries have more unstable supplies than others. We find that food imports have been a source of food supply instability—in particular for maize in Southern Africa, wheat in Central Asia, and rice more generally. But the reason that imports lead to instability is not the same across regions or crops and imports are at times necessary due to limited available water and land resources. Furthermore, the source of imports may be important in the case of co-occurring crop failures in both importing and exporting countries, or exporters with high export variance. Finally, we find that the increasing prevalence of global trade from 1985–2010 has increased exposure to food supply variance in some regions, although it has not increased exposure to supply variance in all regions. These results provide guidance for future analyses to focus on regions that are vulnerable to imported food supply disruptions of important staple crops, and inform debates about the risks associated with food trade in the Global South.EC/FP7/605728 /EU/Postdoctoral Researchers International Mobility Experience/ P.R.I.M.E.DFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2019 - 2020 / Technische Universität Berli

Thoracic X-Strap Harness. Design and Method 2

No abstract

Social Workers\u27 Perceptions of Family Preservation Programs

The passage of the Adoptions and Safe Families Act of 1997, with its focus on child safety and concurrent planning, has presented family preservation workers with new challenges and new opportunities. Twenty volunteers from a large comprehensive social service agency were interviewed to determine their experiences with two models of family preservation—Multisystemic Therapy (MST) and Traditional Family Preservation Service (TFPS) or practice as usual. Workers from both programs were able to articulate values consistent with family preservation as important strengths of the programs— keeping families together and empowering families for example. Information from referring agencies was described as variable and not especially useful when working with seriously troubled families, especially as it related to risk and child safety. Both groups indicated that the jargon of family preservation had permeated their agencies, and that working with other agencies was at times a challenge, though for different reasons. Finally, despite some reservations about the effectiveness of short-term treatment with families that face serious challenges, both groups of workers were generally satisfied with family preservation as an approach to practice

A high proportion of the world population of the spoon-billed sandpiper occurs at Tiaozini, China, during the post-breeding Moult

The Critically Endangered Spoon-billed Sandpiper Calidris pygmaea breeds in arctic and subarctic Russia and migrates to winter on coastal mudflats in south-east Asia. Its world population is probably about 700 individuals. We report Lincoln-Petersen closed-population estimates of the number of Spoon-billed Sandpipers at Tiaozini, a coastal site in Jiangsu Province, China, based upon resightings and scan surveys of individually-marked leg-flagged birds. Surveys were conducted in September-October, when adult Spoon-billed Sandpipers are moulting their primary feathers and long-distance movements are unlikely. We estimated that 220 birds were present at Tiaozini in 2017 and 224 in 2018. Nearly all of them were adults (one-year old or older), so about 40% of the world population of this age class was estimated to be present. Hence, protection of the mudflats and roost sites at Tiaozini is of global importance for the conservation of the Spoon-billed Sandpiper.Non

Construction Division

REPORT NO

Monoclonal antibodies made to chick mesencephalic neural crest cells and to ciliary ganglion neurons identify a common antigen on the neurons and a neural crest subpopulation

We previously reported the production of monoclonal antibodies (Mabs) that identified cell surface components of cultured chick and quail ciliary ganglion (CG) neurons and of a subpopulation of neural crest (NC) cells from 31-hr chick embryos (stage 9). Here we demonstrate that another Mab, CG-14, which was prepared to nitrocellulose-immobilized, lightly fixed (0.125% paraformaldehyde) mesencephalic NC cells from 31-hr (stage 9) chick embryos, labels the same antigen(s) recognized by CG-1 and CG-4 on both the CG neurons and the subpopulation of NC cells. All three Mabs label a polypeptide of 75 kD on Western blots of one-dimensional SDS-polyacrylamide gels. CG-14 blocked the binding of CG-1 and/or CG-4 to the 75 kD band on Western blots and blocked the binding of CG-1 and CG-4 to CG and NC cells. CG-1 and/or CG-4 antibodies, in turn, blocked the binding of CG-14 to Western blots, as well as NC and CG cells. We had previously shown that antibodies CG-1 and CG-4 were synergistically cytotoxic for the majority (95%) of cultured CG neurons in vitro in the presence of guinea pig complement. Here we show that the antibodies, which are both of the Γ2a subclass, are also cytotoxic for the NC cells that they label in vitro. After the cells are ablated in culture, no other cells bearing the antigen(s) recognized by any of the three Mabs appear over a 2.5-week period. CG-14, however, is not cytotoxic for either the CG or NC cell populations alone or in combinations with CG-1 or CG-4. These results confirm our original observation that cultured CG neurons and NC cells share cell-surface antigen(s). The antigen recognized by all three Mabs appears to be the same whether the immunogen used to produce the antibodies was CG neurons or NC cells. This finding encourages us to continue tests of the hypothesis that the subpopulation of mesencephalic neural crest cells contributes to the formation of the ciliary ganglion in the embryo. Further characterization of the antigen appears in the accompanying paper.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/50219/1/490210204_ftp.pd

Establishing haematological and biochemical reference intervals for free-ranging Scottish golden eagle nestlings (Aquila chrysaetos)

Health assessment of individuals is an important aspect of monitoring endangered wildlife populations. Haematological and biochemical values are a common health assessment tool, and whilst reference values are well established for domestic species, they are often not available for wild animal species. This study established 31 haematological and biochemical reference intervals for golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nestlings in Scotland, in order to improve the understanding of the species’ health and support conservation efforts. Reference intervals were created from 47 nestlings (ages 2–7.5 weeks old) across 37 nests, to date, the largest sample of wild individuals of this species and age cohort sampled for these purposes. Upper reference intervals for concentrations of lymphocytes, total protein, cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid, and monocytes, calculated in this study, are higher than those found for adult raptors and the interval span is higher than that observed in adult raptors for concentrations of AST, albumin, eosinophil, LDH, and monocyte count. Statistically significant positive correlations were found with age and concentrations of haemoglobin, lymphocytes, serum pH, and creatine kinase, and significant negative correlations with age for concentrations of thrombocytes, heterophils, total protein, globulin, and lactate dehydrogenase. Packed cell volume was significantly higher for females than males, and concentration of calcium and eosinophils were higher for individuals in good body condition than those in moderate body condition. The reference intervals produced by this study will be of important use to the veterinary and conservation management communities and will aid the long-term monitoring of the Scottish golden eagle population health

Can Sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? The role of irrigation development in the region’s drylands for food security

This paper was given at the workshop on Virtual Water in Agricultural Products: Quantification, Limitations and Trade Policy (Lincoln, Nebraska, USA, 14-16 September 2016), which was sponsored by the OECD Co-operative Research Programme: Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems whose financial support made it possible for the author to participate in the workshop

A Phase transition in acoustic propagation in 2D random liquid media

Acoustic wave propagation in liquid media containing many parallel air-filled cylinders is considered. A self-consistent method is used to compute rigorously the propagation, incorporating all orders of multiple scattering. It is shown that under proper conditions, multiple scattering leads to a peculiar phase transition in acoustic propagation. When the phase transition occurs, a collective behavior of the cylinders appears and the acoustic waves are confined in a region of space in the neighborhood of the transmission source. A novel phase diagram is used to describe such phase transition. Originally submitted on April 6, 99.Comment: 5 pages, 5 color figure