Insecticide Effects on Normal Development and Hatch of Embryos of \u3ci\u3eParatanytarsus Parthenogeneticus\u3c/i\u3e (Diptera: Chironomidae)

Simple, low cost methods are needed to determine the effect of pesticides on non-target aquatic organisms. In this report, embryos of Paratanytarsus parthenogenetic us were exposed from deposition to hatch to five pesticides. Four of the five pesticides affected development or hatch only at concentrations which exceeded 96-h LC50 values of other non-target invertebrates. One pesticide, fenitrothion, affected hatch at 13 Ilgll which is similar to 96-h LC50 values for other aquatic invertebrates. Because of the low sensitivity of the embryo to pesticides, this method may not be a useful pesticide screening test for non-target invertebrates

FOMC learning and productivity growth (1985-2003): a reading of the record

The increasingly rapid productivity growth that began in the 1990s was the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the contrast between information contained in aggregate data, which initially suggested little productivity gain, and anecdotal firm-level evidence, which hinted at the productivity acceleration. The authors revisit this debate from the actual FOMC transcripts. Their study illustrates the process by which policymakers filter incoming data to identify changes in underlying fundamental trends.Monetary policy

The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement

The acceleration of labor productivity growth that began during the mid-1990s is the defining economic event of the past decade. A consensus has arisen among economists that the acceleration was caused by technological innovations that decreased the quality-adjusted prices of semiconductors and related information and communications technology (ICT) products, including digital computers. In sharp contrast to the previous 20 years, services-producing sectors-heavy users of ICT products-led the productivity increase, besting even a robust manufacturing sector. In this article, the authors survey the performance of the services-producing and goods-producing sectors and examine revisions to aggregate labor productivity data of the type commonly discussed by policymakers. The revisions, at times, were large enough to reverse preliminary conclusions regarding productivity growth slowdowns and accelerations. The unanticipated acceleration in the services sector and the large size of revisions to aggregate data combine to shed light on why economists were slow to recognize the productivity acceleration.Labor productivity

How does the FOMC learn about economic revolutions? evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994-2001

Forecasting is a daunting challenge for business economists and policymakers, often made more difficult by pervasive uncertainty. No such uncertainty is more difficult than projecting the reaction of policymakers to major shifts in the economy. We explore the process by which the FOMC came to recognize, and react to, the productivity acceleration of the 1990s. Initial impressions were formed importantly by anecdotal evidence. Then, policymakers—and chiefly Alan Greenspan—came to mistrust the data and the forecasts. Eventually, revisions to published data confirmed initial impressions. Our main conclusion is that the productivity-driven positive supply side shocks of the 1990s were initially viewed favorably. However, over time they came to be viewed as posing a threat to the economy, chiefly through unsustainable increases in aggregate demand growth that threatened to increase inflation pressures. Perhaps nothing so complicates business planning and forecasting as policymakers who initially embrace an unanticipated shift and, later, come to abhor the same shift.Federal Open Market Committee ; Financial crises ; Productivity

The FOMC’s “considerable period”

Monetary policy

Productivity measurement and monetary policymaking during the 1990s

The acceleration of productivity growth during the latter half of the 1990s was both the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the conflict between incoming aggregate data, which initially suggested little productivity gain, and anecdotal firm-level evidence which hinted at an acceleration. Some FOMC members feared an overheating economy and higher inflation; others, including the Chairman, argued that revolutionary increases in productivity were occurring and the Committee should not prematurely forgo significant future gains in real income by tightening policy. We review the difficulty of measuring productivity during periods of rapid quality change, the large magnitude of subsequent data revisions during the 1990s, and, from FOMC transcripts, the contemporary monetary policy debate within the FOMC as the decade*s data evolved.Monetary policy ; Production (Economic theory)

Hunter Activities, Conflicts, and Opinions Following Implementation of a Controlled Waterfowl Hunting Program on the Rend Lake Public Hunting Area in 1995-96

Waterfowl Program Periodic Report no. 90Report issued on: 2 December 199

Serial correlation in the analysis of time series

Items ordered in time usually are not independent of one another; thus, some modifications must be made in the usual regression or harmonic analysis of such data;The number of independent events in such a time series can be approximated by dividing the total number of observations by the number of the first lag which will produce a non-significant serial correlation coefficient;The distributions and significance levels of the serial covariance have been indicated;If the series consists of a large number of items, the large sample normal distribution of the serial R can be used;For small samples, we have calculated what we purport to call the general density and probability functions for N odd and lag 1. The 1% and 5% significance levels for N up to 45 have been tabulated;It has been indicated that the same distributions hold for RL as for Ri when N is a prime number or when L and N have no common factor. Some of the distributions of RL for L a factor of N have been derived and directions presented for extensions;Several examples of the calculations of the serial correlation coefficients have been set up, illustrating applications to Wold\u27s analysis of time series and to the problem of estimating the amount of information contained in various series;Points to be considered in the future are: discussion of type II error, extension to other fields than that of economic time series, a more vigorous test of the significance of the regression and harmonic coefficients in a serially correlated series, an extension of the distributions to include more lags of higher order than those considered in this manuscript and, above all, distributions and significance levels of RL when the data are corrected for trend effects

A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the speciation of a vector error correction forecasting model that is anchored by long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by economic theory. The model includes six variables - the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (MI), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP - and four cointegrating vectors. Model forecasts during the 1990's are compared to those made by the Federal Reserve and by private forecasters.Forecasting ; Econometric models

Health Transfers: An Application of Health-Health Analysis to Assess Food Safety Regulations

The authors apply a Health-Health Analysis to risks associated with harvesting Gulf oysters to evaluate that approach to managing health and safety risks