Examining the forecasting performance of a modified affine model with macroeconomic and latent factors

Various studies model the dynamics of the yield curve assuming that some of the yields are measured without error but this methodology lacks economic interpretation. We overcome this problem by estimating a modified affine model with macroeconomic and latent factors which introduces measurement noise on both yields and macroeconomic determinants. Our results suggest that under the proposed model there is a significant reduction in the persistence of the latent factors and an increase in the effect of macroeconomic shocks to the entire yield curve. We provide a comparative analysis of these models, and we conduct out of sample comparative forecasts to investigate if our specification has a superior performance. We find important differences concerning the magnitude of the dynamics that move the yield curve. Our model provides better forecasts for the entire yield curve while it also beats random walk in many cases. This is an important finding since according to the relative literature it is very difficult for any affine model to outperform random walk

An explanation of spread’s ability to predict economic activity: A regime switching model

© 2016, © Emerald Group Publishing Limited. Purpose – For over two decades numerous studies have provided evidence on the predictive ability of the yield spread for real economic growth. While all this large literature has focussed on how well the spread helps predict real activity, none of these has given an answer on why the spread predicts. The purpose of this paper is to deal with this issue by trying to find an answer on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be so powerful predictor of economic activity. Design/methodology/approach – The authors examine whether the explanation of spread’s predictive ability lies behind interest rate volatility supposing that the economy oscillates between high- and low-volatility regimes. For this reason the authors nest GARCH models into Markov regime switching models. Findings – When the authors assume that the economy simply oscillates between different regimes, interest rate volatility does not explain the spread’s predictive ability. However, the authors obtain a very interesting result when the authors augment the conditional variance with a level effects term. This ensures that in an environment with high levels of interest rates – in which the rational agents expect the economy to slow down – there is a greater possibility for the economy to switch to a high-volatility regime. Under these economic conditions, interest rate volatility appears to be the reason of spread’s predictive power from one up to three years. Originality/value – This study contributes to the relevant literature by providing an explanation on the reason and the economic conditions under which the spread proves to be so powerful predictor of economic activity

To Lean or Not to Lean Against an Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, economists are reconsidering the appropriate role of monetary policy towards equity bubbles. This paper contributes to these deliberations by estimating the response of the stock market to monetary policy tightening by using a Bayesian time‐varying VAR model. By introducing the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, we propose a method that estimates its fundamental and bubble components. We find that asset prices will initially fall and eventually rise again but without the risk of feeding the bubble. Counterfactual policy experiments provide additional evidence that monetary policy can lean against equity and housing prices. (JEL E50, E52, E58

Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective

© 2018, The Author(s). This paper analyses the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. We use a time-varying, factor-augmented VAR framework to examine how and to what extent the propagation of US policy shocks affects the South East Asian (SEA) and European Union (EU) economies, through various transmission channels. We find that in the SEA economies, the income absorption effect is the most pronounced channel as indicated by the significant worsening of the trade balance of these countries, which provokes a reduction in their output. In addition, wealth effects and the balance sheet channel have an important contribution in the transmission of the shock to these economies. In the EU, the initial rise observed in output as a result of the shock is driven more by exchange rate movements rather than movements in the trade balance. In terms of changes in the magnitude of the effect of the shock over time, we find that the deepening of global integration dampens the effect of the shock on the foreign economies in core macroeconomic and financial variables. Moreover, the impact of the shock on the foreign economies has increased in the post-crisis period

Monetary Policy, Financial Shocks and Economic Activity

This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of macroeconomic outcomes to financial market disturbances and the central bank’s role in financial stability. Our two major contributions are conceptual and econometric. Conceptually, we introduce phases of the business cycle and econometrically we employ Bayesian VARs. We document that a shock that increases credit to non-financial sector leads to a persistent decline in economic activity. In addition, we examine whether the behavior of financial variables is useful in signaling the 2007–2009 recession. The answer is positive as our BVAR generates early warning signals pointing to a sustained slowdown in growth. We propose that the expansion phase of the business cycle can be subdivided into an early and a late expansion. Based on this distinction, we show that if the Fed had raised the policy rate when the economy moved from the early to late expansion, it could have mitigated the severity of the 2007–2009 recession

House Bubbles, Global Imbalances and Monetary Policy in the US

This paper examines the factors driving housing price exuberance in the United States, specifically the influence of expansionary monetary policies and the global saving glut. We employ medium scale Bayesian VAR and time-varying VAR models to estimate the effects of monetary policy and global saving glut shocks on US housing bubbles. We find that, prior to the Global Financial Crisis, the impact of the saving glut shock is more enduring, powerful, and rapid in generating housing bubbles compared to monetary policy shocks. However, the recent housing boom that commenced in 2019 demonstrates a different pattern. Our results suggest that both monetary policy and the global saving glut contribute to the increase in house prices. Counterfactual policy experiments validate this conclusion

Assessing variations in foreign direct investments under international financial reporting standards (IFRS) adoption, macro-socioeconomic developments and credit ratings

© Evangelos Daskalopoulos, Anastasios Evgenidis, Athanasios Tsagkanos, Costas Siriopoulos, 2016. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of an endogenous relationship between international financial reporting standards (IFRS) and sovereign credit ratings on the factors that determine foreign direct investments, by using an instrumental variable panel data framework. The results show that the adoption of IFRS by developed economies is interpreted by credit rating agencies as a positive sign that the firms will provide more transparent financial reports. In addition, the authors find that the consideration of the endogenous relationship between IFRS and credit ratings for developed economies highlights the importance of some variables that was not evident previously such as the degree of corruption and the educational level. Finally, the authors suggest that foreign direct investments are more easily attracted when one considers a joint factor which captures people’s perceptions about the ability of the government to implement policy and regulations that promote the development of public and private sector

Tourism Demand in the Face of Geopolitical Risk: Insights From a Cross-Country Analysis

This paper develops a novel Bayesian heterogeneous panel vector autoregressive model (B-HP-VAR) that quantifies the impact of geopolitical risk shocks on the tourism industry of 14 emerging market and developing economies (EMDE). We find that increasing geopolitical tensions have a persistent negative effect on tourism demand in most of these countries, as shown by our impulse response estimates. Furthermore, evidence from forecast error variance decomposition reveals that geopolitical risk shocks in many EMDE economies constitute the main driver of tourism demand. Analysis from historical decompositions demonstrates that geopolitical tensions have been particularly influential in driving tourism demand in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and Mexico. Our main findings are robust to several perturbations to the benchmark specification. Our results have several important implications for policymakers in their efforts to strengthen the ability of the tourism industry to absorb shocks from geopolitical tensions