Future Scenarios of Nitrogen in Europe

The future effects of nitrogen in the environment will depend on the extent of nitrogen use and the practical application techniques of nitrogen in a similar way as in the past. Projections and scenarios are appropriate tools for extrapolating current knowledge into thefuture. However,these tools will not allow future system turnovers to be predicted. Approaches• In principle, scenarios of nitrogen use follow the approaches currently used for air pollution,climate ,or ecosystem projections. Short term projections (to 2030) are developed using a ‘baseline’ path of development,which considers abatement options that are consistent with European policy. For medium-term projections (to 2050) and long-term projections, the European Nitrogen Assessment (ENA) applies a ‘storyline’ approach similar to that used in the IPCC SRES scenarios. Beyond 2050 in particular, such story lines also take into account technological and behavioral shift s.Key findings/state of knowledge• The ENA distinguishes between driver-oriented and effect-oriented factors determining nitrogen use. Parameters that cause changes in nitrogen fixation or application are called drivers. In a driver-based approach, it is assumed that any variation of these parameters will also trigger a change in nitrogen pollution. In an effect-based approach, as the adverse effects of nitrogen become evident inthe environment, introduction of nitrogen abatement legislation requiring the application of more efficient abatement measuresis expected. This approach needs to rely on a target that is likely to be maintained in the future (e.g.human health). Nitrogen abatement legislation basedon such targets will aim to counter any growth in adverse environmental effects that occur as a result of increased nitrogen application.• For combustionand industry, technical fixes forabatement are available. Allscenarios agree in projecting a decrease in NOx emissions.Yet agricultural nitrogen use is expected to remain the leading cause of nitrogen release to the environment, as options to reduce emissions are limited. Thus, major changes will occur only if the extent of agricultural production changes, which may possibly be triggered by decreasing population numbers in Europe.The scenarios presented here project modest changes in NH 3 and N 2 O emissions, or nitrateleaching, but do not agree on the direction of these changes.•Agricultural activity (and thus nitrogen loads to the environment) may decrease strongly if the European population adopts a healthier‘low meat’ diet leading to lower nitrogenlosses related to animal husbandry. Change to a ‘healthy diet’ across the EU, which consists of 63% less meat and eggs, would reduce ammonia emissions from animal production by 48%. However, if an agricultural area previously used for animal feed production is utilized for biofuel crops, additional nitrogen fertilizer maybe required, which will partially offset reductions of nitrogen leakage to the environment. Major uncertainties/challenges• International trade in nitrogen-containing goods (agricultural as well as industrial) represents a key uncertainty and is difficult to project. Estimating the demand for such goods for Europe alone may not at all reflect European production and related environmental effects. The industrial use of nitrogen is alsovery poorly understood, but it is expected to continue to grow considerably. The respective environmental impacts of such products cannot be clearly discerned from statistical information.Recommendations• Scenarios need to be continuously updated in terms of economic, technical, and societal trends to reflect improved understanding of these factors. Using nitrogen budgets as tools could improve the consistency of scenarios.JRC.DDG.H.2-Climate change and air qualit

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change

Modelling carbon dynamics from urban land conversion: fundamental model of city in relation to a local carbon cycle

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The main task is to estimate the qualitative and quantitative contribution of urban territories and precisely of the process of urbanization to the Global Carbon Cycle (GCC). Note that, on the contrary to many investigations that have considered direct anthropogenic emission of CO₂(urbanized territories produce ca. 96–98% of it), we are interested in more subtle, and up until the present time, weaker processes associated with the conversion of the surrounding natural ecosystems and landscapes into urban lands. Such conversion inevitably takes place when cities are sprawling and additional "natural" lands are becoming "urbanized".</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In order to fulfil this task, we first develop a fundamental model of urban space, since the type of land cover within a city makes a difference for a local carbon cycle. Hence, a city is sub-divided by built-up, „green" (parks, etc.) and informal settlements (<it>favelas</it>) fractions. Another aspect is a sub-division of the additional two regions, which makes the total number reaching eight regions, while the UN divides the world by six. Next, the basic model of the local carbon cycle for urbanized territories is built. We consider two processes: carbon emissions as a result of conversion of natural lands caused by urbanization; and the transformation of carbon flows by "urbanized" ecosystems; when carbon, accumulated by urban vegetation, is exported to the neighbouring territories. The total carbon flow in the model depends, in general, on two groups of parameters. The first includes the NPP, and the sum of living biomass and dead organic matter of ecosystems involved in the process of urbanization, and namely them we calculate here, using a new more realistic approach and taking into account the difference in regional cities' evolution.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is also another group of parameters, dealing with the areas of urban territories, and their annual increments. A method of dynamic forecasting of these parameters, based on the statistical regression model, was already suggested; nevertheless we shall further develop a new technique based on one idea to use the gamma-distribution. This will allow us to calculate the total carbon balance and to show how urbanization shifts it.</p

The POETICs of industrial carbon dioxide emissions in Japan: an urban and institutional extension of the IPAT identity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study applies the POETICs framework (population, organization, environment, technology, institutions and culture) to an analysis of industrial carbon dioxide emissions in Japanese cities. The inclusion of institutional variables in the form of International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives membership, ISO 14001 implementation, and non-profit sector activity addresses the ecological limitations of the often used IPAT (impact = population × affluence × technology) approach.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results suggest the weak existence of an environmental Kuznets curve, in which the wealthiest cities are reducing their emissions through increased efficiency. Significant institutional impacts are also found to hold in the predicted directions. Specifically, panel and cross-sectional regressions indicate that membership in the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives and non-profit organizational presence have negative effects on industrial carbon dioxide emissions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The presence of institutional drivers at the city level provides empirical support for the POETICs rubric, which recasts the ecological framing of the IPAT identity in a more sociological mold. The results also indicate that Japanese civil society has a role to play in carbon mitigation. More refined studies need to take into consideration an expanded set of methods, drivers, and carbon budgets, as applied to a broader range of cases outside of Japan, to more accurately assess how civil society can bridge the issue of scale that separates local level policy concerns from global level climate dynamics.</p

Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience

This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations. It finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions, and in some cases multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, sea level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have further severe negative implications for the poorest. Climate related extreme events could push households below the poverty trap threshold. High temperature extremes appear likely to affect yields of rice, wheat, maize and other important crops, adversely affecting food security. Promoting economic growth and the eradication of poverty and inequality will thus be an increasingly challenging task under future climate change. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the risks already locked in at current levels of 0.8°C warming, but with ambitious global action to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C