Response of rate-and-state seismogenic faults to harmonic shear-stress perturbations

Field and laboratory observations show that seismicity has non-trivial period-dependent response to periodic stress perturbations. In Nepal, seismicity shows significant variations in response to annual monsoon-induced stress variations but not to semidiurnal tidal stresses of the same magnitude. Such period dependence cannot be explained by the Coulomb failure model and spring-slider rate-and-state model (SRM). Here, we study seismicity response to periodic stress perturbations in a 2-D continuum model of a rate-and-state fault (that is, a finite rate-and-state fault). We find that the resulting seismicity indeed exhibits nearly periodic variations. Their amplitude is maximum at a certain period, T_a, and decreases with smaller and larger periods to the SRM predictions, remaining much larger than the SRM predictions for a wide range of periods around T_a. We attribute the higher sensitivity of finite faults to their finite nucleation zones which vary in space and have a different slip-velocity evolution than that of the SRM. At periods T ≫ T_a and T ≪ T_a, the seismicity-rate variations are in phase with the stress-rate and stress variations, respectively, consistent with the SRM, although a gradual phase shift appears as T increases towards T_a. Based on the similarities with the SRM and our simulations, we propose a semi-analytical expression for T_a. Plausible sets of model parameters make T_a equal to 1 yr, potentially explaining Nepal observations and constraining the fault properties. Our finite-fault findings indicate that aσ, where a is a rate-and-state parameter and σ is the effective normal stress, can be severely underestimated based on the SRM

Estimating the effect of Earth elasticity and variable water density on tsunami speeds

The speed of tsunami waves is typically calculated using the shallow-water approximation over a rigid-body Earth. Recent comparisons of tsunami arrival times from the 11 March 2011 tsunami suggest, however, that the standard formulation has errors around the 1% level, and it has been suggested that the elasticity of the Earth can explain the discrepancy. While previous work has indeed shown that such elastic deformation can modify tsunami speeds, the effect has been neglected partly due to the difficulty in understanding how large this elastic effect is. Here, we remedy this by providing a new derivation and expression for how to incorporate the first-order effect that solid Earth elasticity and ocean water compressibility have on tsunami speeds. This result is shown to agree approximately with previous theory and helps to explain observed timing discrepancies from the 11 March 2011 tsunami. The dispersive elastic correction and the non-dispersive compressibility correction together may account for the majority of the observed discrepancy

Downscaling of fracture energy during brittle creep experiments

We present mode 1 brittle creep fracture experiments along fracture surfaces that contain strength heterogeneities. Our observations provide a link between smooth macroscopic time-dependent failure and intermittent microscopic stress-dependent processes. We find the large-scale response of slow-propagating subcritical cracks to be well described by an Arrhenius law that relates the fracture speed to the energy release rate. At the microscopic scale, high-resolution optical imaging of the transparent material used (PMMA) allows detailed description of the fracture front. This reveals a local competition between subcritical and critical propagation (pseudo stick-slip front advances) independently of loading rates. Moreover, we show that the local geometry of the crack front is self-affine and the local crack front velocity is power law distributed. We estimate the local fracture energy distribution by combining high-resolution measurements of the crack front geometry and an elastic line fracture model. We show that the average local fracture energy is significantly larger than the value derived from a macroscopic energy balance. This suggests that homogenization of the fracture energy is not straightforward and should be taken cautiously. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results in the context of fault mechanics. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union

Early and persistent supershear rupture of the 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu earthquake

The speed at which an earthquake rupture propagates affects its energy balance and ground shaking impact. Dynamic models of supershear earthquakes, which are faster than the speed of shear waves, often start at subshear speed and later run faster than Eshelby’s speed. Here we present robust evidence of an early and persistent supershear rupture at the sub-Eshelby speed of the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu, Indonesia, earthquake. Slowness-enhanced back-projection of teleseismic data provides a sharp image of the rupture process, along a path consistent with the surface rupture trace inferred by subpixel correlation of synthetic-aperture radar and satellite optical images. The rupture propagated at a sustained velocity of 4.1 km s^(–1) from its initiation to its end, despite large fault bends. The persistent supershear speed is further validated by seismological evidence of far-field Rayleigh Mach waves. The unusual features of this earthquake probe the connections between the rupture dynamics and fault structure. An early supershear transition could be promoted by fault roughness near the hypocentre. Steady rupture propagation at a speed unexpected in homogeneous media could result from the presence of a low-velocity damaged fault zone

Average crack-front velocity during subcritical fracture propagation in a heterogeneous medium.

We study the average velocity of crack fronts during stable interfacial fracture experiments in a heterogeneous quasibrittle material under constant loading rates and during long relaxation tests. The transparency of the material (polymethylmethacrylate) allows continuous tracking of the front position and relation of its evolution to the energy release rate. Despite significant velocity fluctuations at local scales, we show that a model of independent thermally activated sites successfully reproduces the large-scale behavior of the crack front for several loading conditions

Lower edge of locked Main Himalayan Thrust unzipped by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake

Large earthquakes are thought to release strain on previously locked faults. However, the details of how earthquakes are initiated, grow and terminate in relation to pre-seismically locked and creeping patches is unclear ^1-4. The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake occurred close to Kathmandu in a region where the prior pattern of fault locking is well documented ^5. Here we analyze this event using seismological records measured at teleseismic distances and Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery. We show that the earthquake originated northwest of Kathmandu within a cluster of background seismicity that fringes the bottom of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). The rupture propagated eastwards for about 140 km, unzipping the lower edge of the locked portion of the fault. High-frequency seismic waves radiated continuously as the slip pulse propagated at about 2.8 km s-1 along this zone of presumably high and heterogeneous pre-¬seismic stress at the seismic-aseismic transition. Eastward unzipping of the fault resumed during the Mw 7.3 aftershock on May 12. The transfer of stress to neighbouring regions during the Gorkha earthquake should facilitate future rupture of the areas of the MHT adjacent and up-dip of the Gorkha earthquake rupture.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo251

Citizen seismology helps decipher the 2021 Haiti earthquake

5 pages, 4 figures, supplementary materials https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn1045.-- Data and materials availability: All data and code used in this study are openly available. RADAR data can be obtained through ESA (Sentinel) or JAXA (Alos-2). Aftershock data can be obtained from https://ayiti.unice.fr/ayiti-seismes/ (7). The codes used to process or model the data are published and public (8). The catalog of high-precision earthquake relocated with the NLL-SSST-coherence procedure (SM4) is available as supplementary dataOn 14 August 2021, the moment magnitude (Mw) 7.2 Nippes earthquake in Haiti occurred within the same fault zone as its devastating 2010 Mw 7.0 predecessor, but struck the country when field access was limited by insecurity and conventional seismometers from the national network were inoperative. A network of citizen seismometers installed in 2019 provided near-field data critical to rapidly understand the mechanism of the mainshock and monitor its aftershock sequence. Their real-time data defined two aftershock clusters that coincide with two areas of coseismic slip derived from inversions of conventional seismological and geodetic data. Machine learning applied to data from the citizen seismometer closest to the mainshock allows us to forecast aftershocks as accurately as with the network-derived catalog. This shows the utility of citizen science contributing to our understanding of a major earthquakeThis work was supported by the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) through their “Natural Hazard” program (E.C., S.S., T.M., B.D., F.C., J.P.A., J.C., A.D., D.B., S.P.); the FEDER European Community program within the Interreg Caraïbes “PREST” project (E.C., S.S., D.B.); Institut Universitaire de France (E.C., R.J.); Université Côte d’Azur and the French Embassy in Haiti (S.P.); the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant no. 758210, Geo4D project to R.J. and grant no. 805256 to Z.D.); the French National Research Agency (project ANR-21-CE03-0010 “OSMOSE” to E.C. and ANR-15-IDEX-01 “UCAJEDI Investments in the Future” to Q.B.); the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant no. 949221 to Q.B.); and HPC resources of IDRIS (under allocations 2020-AD011012142, 2021-AP011012536, and 2021-A0101012314 to Q.B.With the institutional support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S)Peer reviewe

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BackgroundHistologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD.MethodsThis was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0–4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0–2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: 2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.FindingsOf 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44–63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33–91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62–0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70–0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64–0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63–0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.InterpretationSimple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases

Scaling of Repeating Earthquakes at the Transition From Aseismic to Seismic Slip

International audienceSome observations of repeating earthquakes show an unusual, non-self-similar scaling between seismic moment and corner frequency, a source property related to rupture size. These observations have been mostly reported in regions at the transition from stable to unstable slip, in geothermal reservoirs and subduction zones. What controls the non self-similarity of these ruptures and how this is linked to the frictional stability of the interface are still open questions. Here we develop seismic cycle simulations of a single unstable slipping patch to investigate the mechanisms underlying this behavior. We show that temporal changes of normal stress on a fault can produce ruptures that exhibit the observed anomalous scaling. Our results highlight the role of fault zone fluid pressure in modulating the effective normal stress and contributing to the sliding stability of the fault