Bayesian averaging over decision tree models: an application for estimating uncertainty in trauma severity scoring

Introduction For making reliable decisions, practitioners need to estimate uncertainties that exist in data and decision models. In this paper we analyse uncertainties of predicting survival probability for patients in trauma care. The existing prediction methodology employs logistic regression modelling of Trauma and Injury Severity Score(external) (TRISS), which is based on theoretical assumptions. These assumptions limit the capability of TRISS methodology to provide accurate and reliable predictions. Methods We adopt the methodology of Bayesian model averaging and show how this methodology can be applied to decision trees in order to provide practitioners with new insights into the uncertainty. The proposed method has been validated on a large set of 447,176 cases registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank in terms of discrimination ability evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision–recall (PRC) curves. Results Areas under curves were improved for ROC from 0.951 to 0.956 (p = 3.89 × 10−18) and for PRC from 0.564 to 0.605 (p = 3.89 × 10−18). The new model has significantly better calibration in terms of the Hosmer–Lemeshow Hˆ" role="presentation"> statistic, showing an improvement from 223.14 (the standard method) to 11.59 (p = 2.31 × 10−18). Conclusion The proposed Bayesian method is capable of improving the accuracy and reliability of survival prediction. The new method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a web application

Developing a Professionalism and Harassment Policy for Organized Neurosurgery

Annual conferences, educational courses, and other meetings draw a diverse community of individuals, yet also create a unique environment without the traditional guard rails. Unlike events held at one\u27s home institution, clear rules and jurisdiction have not been universally established. To promote the open exchange of ideas, as well as an environment conducive to professional growth of all participants, the leading neurosurgical professional organizations joined forces to delineate the expectations for anyone who participates in sponsored events. The One Neurosurgery Summit Taskforce on Professionalism and Harassment developed a foundational policy that establishes common expectations for behavior and a unified roadmap for the prompt response to untoward events. We hope that publishing this policy will inspire other medical organizations to establish their own meeting and conference policies. More importantly, we wish to bring greater attention to everyone\u27s responsibility for ensuring a safe and respectful space for education, scientific debate, and networking during organized events